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Old 02-06-2024, 04:55 PM   #221
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Was just watching CNBC report Chipotle earnings, they beat expectations.

They boasted of higher average transactions. They cited inflation for beef, produce and queso but they raised prices to more than cover.

So they had slightly higher profit margin, over 25% in Q4 2023 vs. just over 24% in Q4 2022.

Price increases didnít come entirely from inflation and 2022 had higher inflation than 2023, especially the end of 2023.

Also, I donít follow the restaurant industry but 25% or even 24% profit margin seems high? They are a popular chain ó McDonalds struggled to meet expectations in their latest quarterly report.

So some of the higher prices in recent months seem to be occurring because some companies can increase prices, not entirely or even partly due to inflation.
Hmmm. I wonder if they compensated their servers accordingly. .......
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Old 02-06-2024, 07:43 PM   #222
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Quote:
Originally Posted by explanade View Post
Was just watching CNBC report Chipotle earnings, they beat expectations.

They boasted of higher average transactions. They cited inflation for beef, produce and queso but they raised prices to more than cover.

So they had slightly higher profit margin, over 25% in Q4 2023 vs. just over 24% in Q4 2022.

Price increases didn’t come entirely from inflation and 2022 had higher inflation than 2023, especially the end of 2023.

Also, I don’t follow the restaurant industry but 25% or even 24% profit margin seems high? They are a popular chain — McDonalds struggled to meet expectations in their latest quarterly report.

So some of the higher prices in recent months seem to be occurring because some companies can increase prices, not entirely or even partly due to inflation.
The 24%/25% is gross profit margin. After that they still have operating expenses (management, advertising, R&D, and probbably more) and taxes and maybe some other things. Diluted EPS is about 1.7% using today's closing price and diluted EPS TTM.
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Old 02-09-2024, 10:22 AM   #223
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December BLS report on CPI has been revised. Seasonally adjusted inflation rate lower than previously calculated.

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/09/-inf...ment-says.html

https://www.investors.com/news/econo...eserve-sp-500/
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Old 02-09-2024, 10:33 AM   #224
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December BLS report on CPI has been revised. Seasonally adjusted inflation rate lower than previously calculated.

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/09/-inf...ment-says.html

https://www.investors.com/news/econo...eserve-sp-500/
Hereís a BLS FAQ on seasonal adjustments for those internet in the methodology. https://www.bls.gov/cpi/seasonal-adj...nd-answers.htm
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Old 02-09-2024, 11:03 AM   #225
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Doesn’t the BLS publish an annual CPI revisions report on their site somewhere?
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Old 02-09-2024, 11:09 AM   #226
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Doesn’t the BLS publish an annual CPI revisions report on their site somewhere?
I don’t see a report but there is a BLS web page for seasonal adjustments with explanations, methodology and lots of data, here https://www.bls.gov/cpi/seasonal-adjustment/home.htm
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Old 02-09-2024, 11:12 AM   #227
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Looks like you have to contact them to get the info.

I’ll wait for Tuesday’s report, thanks.
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Old 02-09-2024, 11:22 AM   #228
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It's good to see it adjusted in the right direction - down.
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Old 02-10-2024, 10:14 AM   #229
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I have been reading and listening to a few people who are working on trying to predict what’s going on with inflation and prices. The current trend seems to be this: The producers of consumer products want the price increases of the broken supply chain days to stick in the minds of consumer and become the new normal prices. Consumers along with some major retailers are resisting this.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/danpont...h=548a388e4549

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In another of its bold moves that underscores the company’s commitment to purpose-driven and ethical business practices, French grocery giant Carrefour has halted the sale of Pepsi products due to unacceptable price increases. The move is in addition to their late 2023 decision to physically highlight the sneaky tactic of “shrinkflation” in their grocery stores. This two-pronged approach by France’s second-largest grocer is not just a retail strategy; it's a loud message about the role of corporations in society and the importance of purpose-driven, ethical leadership.
I believe Walmart has started to pressure producers to curtail price increases and in some cases reduce prices.

https://www.reuters.com/business/ret...es-2023-02-10/

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But now with the cost of cardboard cases declining by 40-50%, the cost of transportation falling by 25-30% and the cost of raw materials declining significantly, "retailers like Walmart will say 'hey you already had three rounds of price hikes last year, why are you giving us another?'" said Burt Flickinger, managing director at retail consulting firm Strategic Resource Group.
Perhaps we need a buyer’s strike for a few quarters to drive home the point
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Old 02-10-2024, 10:19 AM   #230
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I think the high prices now to build a house (believe me, it is EXPENSIVE to build new right now) have hit lumber prices.

I had to purchase a few 2x6 8 foot boards for framing out the last part of our house build, a coffee nook area. I was shocked the boards were $6.20 each. These had been as high as $13 each just a couple years ago. I think they are actually cheaper than they were in 2018.

Kind of makes me just want to build everything out of 2x6 instead of using anything else (plywood has not come down nearly as much)
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Old 02-10-2024, 08:16 PM   #231
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...But now with the cost of cardboard cases declining by 40-50%, the cost of transportation falling by 25-30% and the cost of raw materials declining significantly...
Interesting. I know the price spikes due to supply chain issues have eased, but I didn't know it was by that much.

Makes all the pundits look kinda silly screaming doom and gloom about both "inflation" and "deflation," when a lot of it was just two sides of a temporary spike.

I agree that consumers and retailers need to send a message to manufacturers that we're on to their game and won't put up with their BS any more.

Of course that won't happen. But I can dream.
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Old 02-10-2024, 08:24 PM   #232
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chuckanut View Post
I have been reading and listening to a few people who are working on trying to predict what’s going on with inflation and prices. The current trend seems to be this: The producers of consumer products want the price increases of the broken supply chain days to stick in the minds of consumer and become the new normal prices. Consumers along with some major retailers are resisting this.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/danpont...h=548a388e4549


Perhaps we need a buyer’s strike for a few quarters to drive home the point
The Carrefour bit I believe was due to a new French law that basically requires retailers to negotiate annually and to push back. https://www.ft.com/content/752e1aa1-...f-ed01ea9ad7eb

But it also sounds like Carrefour has been on the bandwagon a long time.
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Old 02-13-2024, 08:45 AM   #233
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January 2024 CPI release: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm

3.1% over the last 12 months. 0.3% for January.
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Old 02-13-2024, 09:22 AM   #234
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CPI 12/31/23 = 308.417

Annualized inflation rates (<1yr not seasonally adjusted)

Last 1 year > + 3.09%
Last 9 mos > + 2.22%
Last 6 mos > + 1.78%
Last 3 mos > + 0.97%

I'm happy with the trend. The average annual inflation rate over the past 20 years has been 2.6%, and I expect we will soon be there.



Topline CPI last 14 months

Dec 296.797
Jan 299.170
Feb 300.840
Mar 301.836
Apr 303.363
May 304.127
Jun 305.109
Jul 305.691
Aug 307.026
Sep 307.789
Oct 307.671
Nov 307.051
Dec 306.746
Jan 308.417
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Old 02-13-2024, 11:44 AM   #235
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Does this mean CD Rates will remain good?
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Old 02-13-2024, 11:48 AM   #236
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Does this mean CD Rates will remain good?
Based on the T-Bill rates which have been creeping back up, itís possible that some CDs will remain good. The online banks have recently been dropping CD rates aggressively however, and I donít expect them to turn around and raise again. The non-callable brokered CDs have been even lower for a while. You might be better off buying Treasuries.
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Old 02-13-2024, 11:51 AM   #237
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Does this mean CD Rates will remain good?
Steady or rise slightly, IMO. Noticed a couple 1yr at Schwab went up a tenth or so in the past few days. Now at 5%, again. I thought we were done with any upward movement over the past few months, but now I'm not so sure. In any case, I don't see any dramatic movement for a while (months).
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Old 02-13-2024, 11:58 AM   #238
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Steady or rise slightly. Noticed a couple of 1yr at Schwab went up a tenth or so in the past few days. Now at 5%, again.
Well thatís good to see as long as they arenít callable.
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Old 02-13-2024, 12:01 PM   #239
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That trend suggests inflation is under control!

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Old 02-13-2024, 12:01 PM   #240
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Well that’s good to see as long as they aren’t callable.
They are not.
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