LOL!'s Market Timing Newsletter

[papadad111]

Looking at KMI again.

Started eyeballing March 2016 near the money calls 15 and 17.50 strike.
Have not pulled trigger but thinking


Mad money only.

Sold the March KMI calls this morning at 1.31 for a quick 20 percent gain. I'll take it with everything else in the dumps.

Look out below. 1850

 

[papadad111]

I am just so glad I put $100k into that CapitalOne360 deal. Kind of wish I had put $200k in, but I would need two more wives.

What was the deal?

 

[Fermion]

What was the deal?

$1000 for $100k deposit in two accounts plus 0.75% interest rate. Works out to over 3% a year annualized.

Sleep at night money.

 

[papadad111]

I'm putting a bit of money into the market here. Specifically VTI and or SPY below 200 ...

Long term holding for dividends and to get back to a 90/10 allocation of equity to cash (I never have held bonds) Currently @ 87/13.

I'm in drawdown phase but early retiree so feel I do need to be more aggressive and exposed to broad equities and dividend income.

The international stuff like VXUS looks cheap but already is 20 percent of my portfolio so no more. It's all way down from where I got in ... Was the big drag on portfolio alpha in 2015.

 

[papadad111]

$1000 for $100k deposit in two accounts plus 0.75% interest rate. Works out to over 3% a year annualized.

Sleep at night money.

Nice plan. I'll look into it. Really wanted a deal like pen fed 3 percent ... Wishful thinking ...

 

[papadad111]

Watching markets all day ....

Bet we have a strong up rally this afternoon. Up 20 points from 1995 on SP500... Just a gut feel. Oil was up 4 pct and gave it all back. Strange trading today.

China market action is actually irrelevant other than sentiment - just an excuse for a good sell off and new year positioning.

 

[papadad111]

Well. Quiet in here

The mid day market rally on Monday happened per prediction - and the longer downtrend continues. Near term 1950 on SP500 and longer term 1850 I predict.

Have not altered portfolio as it would trigger taxable capital gains. My positions pay dividends and I'm in it for the long term so no sense trying to time the broad market.

10 percent seems likely to 1950 near term. Then up in February as the 401k money rolls in. Then down from there to 1850 ...

My real ugly bearish case sees as much as 25% downside from the last market high of approx 2150 through the calendar year 2017. That would land us at 1600 or so on SP500. Only 20 percent probability though.

Perhaps some long dated put options are still in order as a trade position.

Volatility is definitely back and trading my mad money will hopefully generate some whipped cream , nuts and cherry opportunities ...

 

[papadad111]

 

[LOL!]

A little tax-loss harvesting ...

So I started some tax-loss harvesting moves today.

After 11 am, I watched the market start to drift lower, so I sold some shares of a large-cap US ETF and waited a little bit. Then I bought shares of a different large-cap US ETF at a slightly lower equivalent price.

I have more of these trades to do, so back to the grind.

 

[LOL!]

OK, done for the day. Exchanged VV into VTI. Exchanged VCSH into IVV (increasing allocation to equities).

In the coming days, if anything goes up from here, then I intend to try to book a short-term gains. If things go down from here, then I will look stupid which has happened many times before.

 

[Ed_The_Gypsy]

A good day to be cash-rich.

Sent from my SM-G900V using Early Retirement Forum mobile app

 

[jim584672]

The first 5 days of January are supposed to tell you what the rest of year will do.

 

[pb4uski]

$1000 for $100k deposit in two accounts plus 0.75% interest rate. Works out to over 3% a year annualized.

Sleep at night money.

How do you get 3%? $1,000 bonus is 1% plus the 0.75% regular interest or 1.75% if deposited and held for a year.

 

[LOL!]

How do you get 3%? $1,000 bonus is 1% plus the 0.75% regular interest or 1.75% if deposited and held for a year.

The key word is "annualized". I suspect the money will stay there for only a few months. For instance, 1% for 4 months is 3% annualized.

 

[pb4uski]

I see what Fermion meant but it is a bit misleading to frame it as 3% because he really can't earn 3% in a year because CapitalOne isn't stupid enough to pay him more than one 1% bonus.

 

[growerVon]

I was up late last night, saw that the Chinese market dropped 7% and trading was halted.

Woke up just now, and saw the Dow dropping 400 points or more than 2%. Fun time!

Get Bill Murray in here, this has been a repeat this week!

 

[Dash man]

Markets looking to calm a bit today...calm before the storm?


Sent from my iPhone using Early Retirement Forum

 

[growerVon]

Bought a little more VTSAX Friday, out-of-band from my normal paycheck-aligned investing.

 

[papadad111]

We have yet to see serious capitulation. Just the grind lower ... I think we will see 1850 before we see 1950 ....


Sent from my iPad using Early Retirement Forum

 

[audreyh1]

We have yet to see serious capitulation. Just the grind lower ... I think we will see 1850 before we see 1950 ....


Sent from my iPad using Early Retirement Forum

1850 doesn't seem so bad. It's 1570 I'm not particularly looking forward to, but it should be a great rebalancing opportunity, plus some tax loss harvesting.

 

[LOL!]

Since I've lost money on last Thursday's purchase of IVV, I bought lots more at the end of today once again. I got the money from selling VCSH. I can do one or two more rounds of this before I run out of money altogether.

 

[papadad111]

1850 doesn't seem so bad. It's 1570 I'm not particularly looking forward to, but it should be a great rebalancing opportunity, plus some tax loss harvesting.

Agree. Interestingly dividend yields are coming up with the sell off and with interest rates so low I bet we see some interest in equities by the yield chasers - perhaps a bear market rally but we are oversold at 1900 -1925 with upside to 1975 then down to 1850..

The 1570 scenario is ugly indeed, and I hope we don't go there as I just don't have enough dry powder to take full advantage without upsetting my preferred overall AA ....

 

[LOL!]

My recent purchases started the day in the black, but with the steady downtrend all day today, things are in the red. This just motivates me to buy more.

I intend to buy some ETF in the US small-cap asset class because this asset class has dropped more than 15% since mid-August. I've got a couple of hours to see if the downtrend continues although things are up a little bit in the last few moments.

 

[LOL!]

Update: Bought some VBR a moment ago. I'm totally surprised that my limit order went through.

I'm submitting another buy order at an even lower limit price.

Update: And my 2nd buy order was filled. I'm going for another ....

And another update: My 3rd, 4th, and 5th orders for VXF were filled.

Watch out! Even though these are now in the black, there is still an hour to go.

 

[papadad111]

We had the upside earlier today and now looks like a slide down toward 1850. We fell through 1900 just a while ago

Powder is dry but going to start buying at around 1888. Which is about now ....


Feels like some capitulation ( finally) from what was supposed to be an up day. We need to see 1850 for a real wash out.