LOL!'s Market Timing Newsletter

GRRR, must stop looking at Gilead. All it has done is go up after I sold all even when the market goes down.

I didn't think it would break $100 until mid summer and already at $101.70. I had so many August calls at $90 strike when it was $88 a few weeks back. Approaching a six figure mistake on my early sell out.
 
LOL! said:
The futures market seems to be pretty normal now.
Stock Indices Futures - Investing.com
Click to expand...

I like normal. Normal is good.

The market does not drop much, my cash-covered puts expire worthless. I keep my cash, and also the option premiums.

The market does not go up much, my stock-covered calls expire worthless. I keep my stocks, and also the option premiums.

Rinse and repeat, please. Mr Market, I thank you.

Fermion said:
GRRR, must stop looking at Gilead. All it has done is go up after I sold all even when the market goes down.

I didn't think it would break $100 until mid summer and already at $101.70. I had so many August calls at $90 strike when it was $88 a few weeks back. Approaching a six figure mistake on my early sell out.
Click to expand...

On 3/15 when I sold an April cash-covered put on GILD, it was trading at 89.50. If I bought the stock then, by now I would have 3x what I am getting for the put. But lower return for lower risk is the rule of the game, right?

Well, gas is still cheap, so that option premium pays for a few tanks of gas for my gasguzzling motorhome, yet I still have my cash. Better not be too greedy, lest the market god gets angry.

PS. I recently wrote covered calls on some other ETFs, but not IBB and another biotech ETF. I am going to ride them up for a bit more.
 
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Honestly I would have sold some health care funds today but Vanguard didn't let me. Who needs financial advisor when you have Vanguard. Back in Feb, I bought some because it was the most oversold. I did sell some on the way up, but still have some.


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I just sold more than 1/2 of the shares of XLK, a technology ETF. It has Google, Apple, Microsoft, Facebook, etc..., many having been bashed over the head in the last few days due to poor outlook.

I bought XLK in 11/2008, and have held it since then, hence have a good gain. Time to "realize" some of that gain.

Now, what to buy, what to buy... I think I will sit on my hands for a little while.
 
That's patience. I don't think I can hold that long. In 2014/2015 GOOGL was in the $500 range.


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I have some core stocks or ETFs that I hold for years. I am tempted to say decades, but then remember that I only started to do individual equities since 1998.
 
I wish I hold on to those MSFT shares that I bought in the 80s, I will be 4 or 5 commas club today.


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Being an EE, I was dumb not to invest in semiconductor or computer stocks until the late 90s.

But, but, but 4 commas? Like this: 1,000,000,000,000? That's one trillion dollars, far more than even the richest man on earth (no individual ever reaches 100B).
 
Oops! It's obvious my coffee was not kicked in.


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NW-Bound said:
Being an EE, I was dumb not to invest in semiconductor or computer stocks until the late 90s.

But, but, but 4 commas? Like this: 1,000,000,000,000? That's one trillion dollars, far more than even the richest man on earth (no individual ever reaches 100B).
Click to expand...

Pretty sure Bill would be at $100B if he had not given so much away. His foundation was getting around 30% annual returns IIRC?
 
You guys made me feel good that I didn't loose 100b, phew, what a relief. Now I can get back to normal trading and pick up crumbs again.


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I made a few round trips today on VWO, pick bigger crumbs, nevertheless still crumbs. But it beats money market.


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Bought and sold vwo again, I put a really low amount yesterday, surprise it was hit, so today I sold it. But I didn't sell at the top but close. I need to overcome my fear of missing out.


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NW, did your Gilead put expire worthless? You got lucky if so, Gilead is down some 12%.

I think it is very oversold here and just bought 500 shares at $88.70. They raised the divy too.
 
I'm thinking of buying more GILD too, to bring my cost basis down a tad more. It almost made it to my $103 sell point this week, before falling off a cliff today.
 
I sold my short of the fast food burrito company for 5% gain. Small load but wish I sold 2 days earlier for the same gain. The traders like to play game with me. And I'm the nervous trader who likes to make a little profit rather than holding out for no gain.


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Made some more money on vwo. This is the gift that keeps on giving.


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Since AAPL has taken a beating yesterday and today I thought I'd burn up some left over cash in my Scottrade account so I picked up 45 shares at $93.27. Good or bad this will be a buy and hold for me since I think AAPL has a ton of money and I don't see them going away anytime soon.
 
Fermion said:
NW, did your Gilead put expire worthless? You got lucky if so, Gilead is down some 12%.

I think it is very oversold here and just bought 500 shares at $88.70. They raised the divy too.
Click to expand...

Thanks for reminding me. I am traveling and do not have fast and easy Web access. I just checked my account, and saw that my put option got exercised at the strike price of 88.50 while GILD closed at 88.21. I already got $3.20/sh on the put premium, so am still ahead on this deal (same as buying GILD at 85.30).

I never owned GILD before this. I will hold it a while.

PS. I sold the put on 3/15, when GILD was at 90.
 
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NW-Bound said:
Thanks for reminding me. I am traveling and do not have fast and easy Web access. I just checked my account, and saw that my put option got exercised at the strike price of 88.50 while GILD closed at 88.21. I already got $3.20/sh on the put premium, so am still ahead on this deal (same as buying GILD at 85.30).

I never owned GILD before this. I will hold it a while.

PS. I sold the put on 3/15, when GILD was at 90.
Click to expand...

While these things never go the way I think they would, Gilead did affirm their 30 to 31B a year revenue, and they are making about $insane profit per year (PE 7 or something) so really, I am not sure how much lower than $88 it will go. It could just as well bounce back above $90 next week as go down.
 
LOL! said:
The money I didn't lose by selling equities the past few days, I lost anyways by buying VNQ too soon.

There's only one solution to the problem: Double up on VNQ. So I will sell some bond ETF shares and buy more VNQ later today.

Update: Orders executed.
Click to expand...
I sold the "double-upped" VNQ shares a moment ago for a 2% gain, but if I had done nothing back on 4/20, I would have had a gain of less than 1% anyways. The money was immediately used to buy shares of AGG (bond ETF).

I've kept the first lot of shares purchased on 4/20 since they now have a gain, too.
 
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Sold energy ETF for minimum wage gain. Immediately it went down after I sold it.


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^When are you going to tell us exactly when you buy these things and the ticker symbols? :greetings10:

I'm posting in near real-time, so folks can see that I sold that VNQ too soon today and missed out on another 0.5% gain.

In other news, my asset allocation is now exactly where I want it for awhile. I do not expect to post any trades for awhile even though I have to reinvest some month-end dividends when they arrive in a few days. They are too small to note in this thread.
 
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