LOL!'s Market Timing Newsletter

[LOL!]

I'm overweight mid/small cap stocks once again. They are up 9.5% since Feb 3rd which was the last purchase. Unfortunately, I would take a tax hit or an early redemption hit to rebalance out of them.

So instead, I will sell some shares of my REIT fund which has a significant fraction of mid/small cap stocks. This will help get me back in balance, but will not go all the way there.

Submitted a limit order to sell VNQ shares a moment ago at the current high for the day although VNQ has backed off that price. My order may or may not get filled. Update to follow.

EtA: Order was filled.

 

[BBQ-Nut]

I've been toying with the idea of doing a little bottom fishing with VWO, but it's unclear how long this January selloff will continue. If I buy, it would be a long term play, probably a shift from developed to emerging markets while keeping my overall international percentage the same.

I sure hope that VWO starts panning out.

For the last year I've been calling my holdings in this as my Vanguard "Woa" is me blunder.

 

[karluk]

I sure hope that VWO starts panning out.

For the last year I've been calling my holdings in this as my Vanguard "Woa" is me blunder.

I don't necessarily feel obligated to post my trades publicly, the way LOL! does, but I don't mind sharing my experiences with emerging markets. I did some rebalancing near the recent market lows that involved selling some bonds that I had purchased late last year and buying both domestic and international stocks. Overall I'm am way ahead in just a few weeks. That's the good news. The one thing I did that hasn't worked out so far is that I exchanged just enough of Vanguard's total international stock fund (VTIAX) to make the minimum investment in the Vanguard emerging markets index (VEMAX). VEMAX is up since I bought it, but I would have made a bigger profit by staying in VTIAX.

As I said in my earlier post, I plan for this to be a long term play, so I will use the ongoing weakness in emerging markets to continue purchasing VEMAX. I'm just not sure how aggressive to be. Any asset class will eventually rebound, but that may take years. The troubles in emerging market stocks make me feel that I have a long time to make my purchases, but I also know that if I end up making a correct call on emerging markets but fail to buy before they rebound, I'll feel foolish for missing the boat.

 

[LOL!]

Submitted a limit order to sell VNQ shares a moment ago at the current high for the day although VNQ has backed off that price. My order may or may not get filled. Update to follow.

EtA: Order was filled.

So I was thinking this morning when I first heard news of the stock market tanking: "Wow, I'm glad I sold on Friday."

But guess which asset class actually went UP today! Yep, REITs and VNQ specifically.

 

[LOL!]

The short-term corporate bond index fund (VCSH) that I use instead of cash was replenished today. It was trading higher than 80.30 recently, but it went ex-dividend yesterday and with the nice day in equities today VCSH dropped to 80.10, so I was able to buy it back close to what I sold it for about a month ago. I used the proceeds from the 2/7 sale of extended markets.

 

[audreyh1]

I'm overweight mid/small cap stocks once again. They are up 9.5% since Feb 3rd which was the last purchase. Unfortunately, I would take a tax hit or an early redemption hit to rebalance out of them.

So instead, I will sell some shares of my REIT fund which has a significant fraction of mid/small cap stocks. This will help get me back in balance, but will not go all the way there.

Submitted a limit order to sell VNQ shares a moment ago at the current high for the day although VNQ has backed off that price. My order may or may not get filled. Update to follow.

EtA: Order was filled.

Yeah, I rebalanced buying some REIT funds on Jan 3 and they have shot up since. But my trigger on the smaller holdings (5% of equity allocation) is 20% out of range, so I won't be rebalancing for a while, maybe not until next Jan.

Like muni bonds, REITs were really beaten down by last year's interest rate rise scare (taper tantrum).

 

[LOL!]

With several ETFs going ex-dividend yesterday, any buys today would not be "buying the dividend". The portfolio is clearly underweighted in large-cap developed foreign, so time to remedy that today. Bought a big chunk of VEA which is the tax-efficient Vanguard FTSE developed markets ETF at near the low for the day so far.

This purchase gets me back to portfolio nirvana. Next Monday some quarterly dividends will show up, but they are insignificant, so I probably won't post about what they got reinvested in.

And an update: that sale of the REIT shares at the end of February has not been detrimental, but the purchase of VCSH was a little early I suppose.

 

[LOL!]

Sold all remaining shares of a REIT fund today. This reduces mid/small-cap US once again and brings me back to my desired asset allocation. The money is earmarked for fixed income, but I've left it in cash for today.

 

[LOL!]

I'm bad because that cash raised on 4/10 was burning a hole in my pocket. So a little while ago today, I used it to buy a "default" equity investment, namely VTI (Total US Stock Market index).

I may sell at any time, but will tell you here because this is all about market timing!

 

[steelyman]

That does it. I was scheduled to buy the Vanguard Total Stock fund (VTSAX?) at the end of the month. I'm trying to invest an inherited IRA. My schedule will stay as planned.

 

[steelyman]

That does it. I was scheduled to buy the Vanguard Total Stock fund (VTSAX?) at the end of the month. I'm trying to invest an inherited IRA. My schedule will stay as planned.

This order got filled yesterday. Only 8 months till I'm done with dollar cost averaging into this account. Boy - it's like watching grass grow!

On to May, I will not go away

 

[LOL!]

Well, it just goes to show me that REITs are not really the same as small/mid caps. The REIT fund I sold is up 5.3% since I sold it, while the mid/small cap index fund that I avoided selling is up only 1.3% in the past month.

REITs are up 15.6% YTD, while the mid/small-cap fund is actually down slightly YTD. Since I bought the mid/small-cap fund on that dip at the beginning of February, I am still up for the year with it.

Anyways, just sitting tight right now, though I'm thinking of donating some shares with LT gains to charity.

 

[audreyh1]

Yes, agreed, my REIT funds act completely different from my mid-cap/small-cap funds. My REIt funds are the strongest up YTD in my portfolio by far. Big recovery from last year. The other funds - not so good.

 

[steelyman]

Today I put an order in for Fidelity's extended market index. It looks like next month it'll be inflation-protected bonds.

I am so not a market timer, but it seems OK to post here.

 

[LOL!]

It appears to be rebalancing time again. I'm posting this on the weekend so that I will be forced to follow through next week.

I need to lighten up on equities and specifically US equities.

I intend to move some Fidelity Extended Market Index fund to the total US bond index fund.

I intend to move some S&P500 index fund to the total US bond index fund.

I will do this on the next day that has a gain of at least 0.2% or maybe sooner, but not on a day when market indices have dropped. Overall amount will be between 1% and 2% of total portfolio. This will be in a tax-advantaged account, so no tax consequences.

OK, there, I posted it, now I have to follow through. I will post update here when the fund exchanges are submitted.

 

[travelover]

It appears to be rebalancing time again. I'm posting this on the weekend so that I will be forced to follow through next week. ...........

I'm doing the same - moving in $10K increments to minimize chance of a major [-]market timing[/-] strategic loss.

 

[aja8888]

I think I am going to add to my Vanguard Energy ETF (VDE) come Monday. I have some univested cash just sitting in my account and I need to place somewhere and I am a bit overweight in the broad market.

Could be we will see a move in oil prices a bit further with the trouble in the Gulf and Russia's threats on cutting off gas to Ukraine.

 

[brewer12345]

It appears to be rebalancing time again. I'm posting this on the weekend so that I will be forced to follow through next week.

I need to lighten up on equities and specifically US equities.

I intend to move some Fidelity Extended Market Index fund to the total US bond index fund.

I intend to move some S&P500 index fund to the total US bond index fund.

I will do this on the next day that has a gain of at least 0.2% or maybe sooner, but not on a day when market indices have dropped. Overall amount will be between 1% and 2% of total portfolio. This will be in a tax-advantaged account, so no tax consequences.

OK, there, I posted it, now I have to follow through. I will post update here when the fund exchanges are submitted.

Just curious: how tight are your reallocation bands? I am generally happy if my equity allocation wanders between 60 an 65% and have yet to need to rebalance this year.

 

[LOL!]

Just curious: how tight are your reallocation bands? I am generally happy if my equity allocation wanders between 60 an 65% and have yet to need to rebalance this year.

Perhaps my upside bands are a little tighter. I want 29% in US equities, 29% in foreign equities. That's 58% total. I start to get antsy when equities go above 60% Right now they are at 60.6%.

Downside bands are different in that if the market drops significantly in one-day, then I change my desired equity allocation to be higher than 58%. That is, one may think of it as overrebalancing to the high side when the market goes down in specific ways.

I do realize that the accuracy of the measurement is probably worse than 1%, too.

A benchmark for me might be a moderate growth fund such as Vanguard LifeStrategy Moderate Growth VSMGX. I want to beat the performance of that benchmark, so I admit that if I am under performing, I tend to let equities ride, but if I am overperforming, I cut back on equities.

 

[LOL!]

Today meets the criteria I posted last weekend for the rebalancing moves described, so I submitted my exchange orders a moment ago.

Extended market might end up 1% today while US bond index might end down 0.2% today, so it's a good day to rationalize "sell high, buy low". OTOH, based on my recent track record, my exchanges will probably start another rise in equities over the next month or so.

Oh, well, the markets faded away in the afternoon.

 

[LOL!]

Just for future reference ….

I wasn't paying attention to the calendar yesterday. Today was the FOMC press release and the markets went up including the funds I sold yesterday and the funds I bought yesterday. But equities went up more than fixed income, so today would have been a better day to do the exchanges that were done yesterday.

 

[travelover]

Just for future reference ….

I wasn't paying attention to the calendar yesterday. Today was the FOMC press release and the markets went up including the funds I sold yesterday and the funds I bought yesterday. But equities went up more than fixed income, so today would have been a better day to do the exchanges that were done yesterday.

If Jim Kramer ever dies, you are up next.

 

[aja8888]

If Jim Kramer ever dies, you are up next.

Didn't you know that Cramer is a wind up doll?

 

[travelover]

Didn't you know that Cramer is a wind up doll?

For all we know, LOL is a 10 year old girl from Iceland.

 

[LOL!]

Well it was looking like my last rebalance was going the wrong way for me with the 2+% rise in equities since June 17th going into the holiday weekend. But with 2+% drop in equities this past Monday and Tuesday, things were pretty much back to where they were before the rebalance.

I was able to manually reinvest a small amount of end-of-quarter dividends late yesterday and this morning. But in 2 accounts, I had VCSH dividends set for automatic reinvest and my broker does this the day after the payable date, so the reinvest occurred today. I was wondering if I was going to get screwed by the broker because this ETF did this today:

I would not put it past TDAmeritrade to buy the shares in the morning, but then charge me the end-of-day price with them pocketing the difference. But they didn't. I got a great price on the auto-reinvest.

Now folks might ask, "What's the big deal?" The big deal is that the yield on this short-term bond fund is low as it is, so every 0.1% advantage in buy price is meaningful to me.