LOL!'s Market Timing Newsletter

[Turboslacker]

Great post!
I like following the markets. Getting ready to do active trading with play money. Learning more about options, ETFs and other investment vehicles is the objective. Always enjoy learning a new hobby, so I'm with y'all market timing wackos!

[Turboslacker]

Quote:

Originally Posted by LOL! Bad news! Emerging Markets buy on a dip got a plug today on finance.yahoo.com: Buy the (next) dip in emerging-markets stocks | Michael Santoli - Yahoo Finance

Many pundits have been touting EM this month as the place to invest for 2014. Maybe so but I'm stick with US equities for now.

[karluk]

Quote:

Originally Posted by LOL! Bad news! Emerging Markets buy on a dip got a plug today on finance.yahoo.com: Buy the (next) dip in emerging-markets stocks | Michael Santoli - Yahoo Finance

I've been toying with the idea of doing a little bottom fishing with VWO, but it's unclear how long this January selloff will continue. If I buy, it would be a long term play, probably a shift from developed to emerging markets while keeping my overall international percentage the same.

Here is another Yahoo finance article that doesn't exactly suggest that now is the time to buy.

Quote:

The sell-off raised the prospect of a repeat of moves last June when developing country stocks fell almost 18 percent and hit global shares. This came after the U.S. Federal Reserve signaled its intention to scale back the bond-buying stimulus that had led investors to chase higher returns in emerging market assets. "We expect the emerging market sell-off to get worse before it starts getting better," said Lorne Baring, managing director of B Capital Wealth Management in Geneva. "There's definitely contagion spreading and it's crossing over from emerging to developed in terms of sentiment."

Emerging market sell-off spills over to Europe, U.S. - Yahoo Finance

[LOL!]

With today's sell-off of more than 2.5%, I have entered an order to rebalance from a US total bond index fund into a US extended market index fund.

Since this is in a 401(k), there are no tax consequences, but there are short-term redemption fees if I need to sell. Thus, if the extended market pops up next week, I may sell in another account some US equities in order to book profits in a round-about way.

If this is a falling knife, I am prepared to catch it now, drop it, and catch it again and again and again.

[foxfirev5]

I will purchase EM and equities in general when required to match my overall AA. Repeat.... Repeat.... Repeat.
As I get older this is not as much fun anymore.

[LOL!]

Quote:

Originally Posted by LOL! If this is a falling knife, I am prepared to catch it now, drop it, and catch it again and again and again.

An article on emerging markets:
Stand Clear of Falling Knives - Barrons.com

[Fermion]

Quote:

Originally Posted by LOL! An article on emerging markets: Stand Clear of Falling Knives - Barrons.com

must be a subscriber

[Options]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fermion "I've never really wanted to go to Japan. Simply because I don't like eating fish." Britney Spears

Isn't she dead? Or maybe that's Paris Hilton? One of the Kardashian/Jenner train wrecks? No?

[LOL!]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fermion must be a subscriber

Hmmm, I caught it by Google News. It's still there in the Business section
Stand Clear of Falling Knives - Barrons.com

Maybe google search on "Pick a horror flick, any horror flick, and it's likely to be an apt metaphor for emerging markets right now."

[LOL!]

My fingers are bleeding, but I bought some more extended market index fund shares in an account different from the 1/24 purchase.

[steelyman]

Still in the middle of a boring dollar cost averaging program, I bought Fidelity REIT investor, that purchase was filled last Friday, of course it's down today. But the single-life expectancy for MRDs is almost 30 years, so I don't think I will change a thing.

[Turboslacker]

I moved to sidelines today. Next figuring out an ETF to play a down market.

[sengsational]

Trying to figure out how to buy more EPP without adding too much more complexity; the walls between taxable, IRA, Roth, 401k, spouse versions of the same, are getting in the way.

[Turboslacker]

I'm thinking volatility will be greater this year due to so much uncertainty, so into a ViX type ETF I plunge. Playing with small $ mostly for fun. I like seeing bigger daily price movements.

[LOL!]

Quote:

Originally Posted by LOL! My fingers are bleeding, but I bought some more extended market index fund shares in an account different from the 1/24 purchase.

Earlier today sold half of the VWO that I purchased in late January for a small profit. Because I bought too early, I did not make as much as folks who bought VWO at the YTD low on Feb 3rd, but I didn't lose money either.

Also sold today the extended markets index ETF shares purchased earlier this week on Monday at the YTD low. I got 3 partial fills, which I like because it shows I picked a limit price that folks were reluctant to pay. This was a nice 4-day gain.

The positions opened on Jan 23rd and 24th are still open and slightly negatively, but no worries since I have realized more than enough gains by today's sells to have a very nice net gain.

I hope everyone had fun with this dip and recovery. It was really too quick though.

[LOL!]

I'm overweight mid/small cap stocks once again. They are up 9.5% since Feb 3rd which was the last purchase. Unfortunately, I would take a tax hit or an early redemption hit to rebalance out of them.

So instead, I will sell some shares of my REIT fund which has a significant fraction of mid/small cap stocks. This will help get me back in balance, but will not go all the way there.

Submitted a limit order to sell VNQ shares a moment ago at the current high for the day although VNQ has backed off that price. My order may or may not get filled. Update to follow.

EtA: Order was filled.

[BBQ-Nut]

Quote:

Originally Posted by karluk I've been toying with the idea of doing a little bottom fishing with VWO, but it's unclear how long this January selloff will continue. If I buy, it would be a long term play, probably a shift from developed to emerging markets while keeping my overall international percentage the same.

I sure hope that VWO starts panning out.

For the last year I've been calling my holdings in this as my Vanguard "Woa" is me blunder.

[karluk]

Quote:

Originally Posted by BBQ-Nut I sure hope that VWO starts panning out. For the last year I've been calling my holdings in this as my Vanguard "Woa" is me blunder.

I don't necessarily feel obligated to post my trades publicly, the way LOL! does, but I don't mind sharing my experiences with emerging markets. I did some rebalancing near the recent market lows that involved selling some bonds that I had purchased late last year and buying both domestic and international stocks. Overall I'm am way ahead in just a few weeks. That's the good news. The one thing I did that hasn't worked out so far is that I exchanged just enough of Vanguard's total international stock fund (VTIAX) to make the minimum investment in the Vanguard emerging markets index (VEMAX). VEMAX is up since I bought it, but I would have made a bigger profit by staying in VTIAX.

As I said in my earlier post, I plan for this to be a long term play, so I will use the ongoing weakness in emerging markets to continue purchasing VEMAX. I'm just not sure how aggressive to be. Any asset class will eventually rebound, but that may take years. The troubles in emerging market stocks make me feel that I have a long time to make my purchases, but I also know that if I end up making a correct call on emerging markets but fail to buy before they rebound, I'll feel foolish for missing the boat.

[LOL!]

Quote:

Originally Posted by LOL! Submitted a limit order to sell VNQ shares a moment ago at the current high for the day although VNQ has backed off that price. My order may or may not get filled. Update to follow. EtA: Order was filled.

So I was thinking this morning when I first heard news of the stock market tanking: "Wow, I'm glad I sold on Friday."

But guess which asset class actually went UP today! Yep, REITs and VNQ specifically.

[LOL!]

The short-term corporate bond index fund (VCSH) that I use instead of cash was replenished today. It was trading higher than 80.30 recently, but it went ex-dividend yesterday and with the nice day in equities today VCSH dropped to 80.10, so I was able to buy it back close to what I sold it for about a month ago. I used the proceeds from the 2/7 sale of extended markets.