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Old 11-19-2019, 09:13 AM   #1961
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MTUM is out ahead of the rest of the US stock market today, but it didn't make any sense to me, so I sold the MTUM bought last month and now have the cash for it. I was overweight in US large caps anyways, so this helps get me back to my desired asset allocation. I'm not sure what I will do with the cash right now, but I hope the stock market tanks, so that I can buy shares lower than they are now. 420

Afternoon update: Well, that has not worked out. There was a quick dip after the sale, but things have marched on and left me in the dust.
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Old 11-20-2019, 12:47 PM   #1962
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How lucky did I get? Yesterday I should've immediately bought some BND or other bond fund shares with the money raised from selling MTUM. Now I need some ideas of what to do with the money. 622
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Old 11-26-2019, 11:44 AM   #1963
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Y'all deserve an update on the last trade: MTUM dropped about 1% below my sell price while bond funds went up. I didn't do anything and stayed in cash. Today MTUM is up about 1% above my sell price and bond funds are still going up. 313 Clearly, I would have been better off not making the trade.
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Old 11-27-2019, 09:55 AM   #1964
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I couldn't sit here holding cash, so I just used the cash from the previous sell to buy BND which has gone up about 1% since earlier in November, but is down about 0.4% (including the last dividend) since the last time I sold BND in this account back on 10/04. So while the last week has not been pretty, the last month was a decent 4+% for an account that typically was allocated 100% bonds. Since 10/04 through yesterday, Morningstar.com says VBTLX (Vanguard Total Bond Index fund) has a -0.3% performance. While that is not quite a fair comparison since this account did not hold a bond fund the entire time, it does make me feel better.
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Old 12-03-2019, 09:53 AM   #1965
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Well look at that! Bond funds don't go up 0.5% in one day very often, but once again BND is up more than that already this morning. Sure, it has been down a little bit recently, but the shares I bought recently are in the black. So that means I need to sell some shares of BND following my market timing method. 011 I may not buy anything with the cash right away since other things have not dropped very much at all.

I will also note that the MTUM I sold earlier in November is now back trading lower than I sold it for.
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Old 12-04-2019, 03:01 PM   #1966
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Bought some total US bond index ETF with the cash from yesterday. 198. Since the price had dropped as expected, it was worth it to buy SPAB back a little bit ago. I used SPAB instead of BND because looking at real-time level II order books and transactions suggested I could capture an extra 0.03% value, so I did.
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Old 12-06-2019, 09:41 AM   #1967
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Some bond ETF dividend were paid out in the past 2 days, so I re-invested them this morning back into bond ETFs. I probably wouldn't be telling you this, except that those bond ETF were down a bit at the market open and have been climbing in price ever since, so all trades are currently in the black. 457
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Old 12-12-2019, 01:06 PM   #1968
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Back on September 25, I bought back shares of VBTLX (Total US Bond Market Index fund) in post #1937 of this newsletter when VBTLX was down about 0.5%. If I look at how VBTLX has performed in the 2.5 months since, I can say that it has returned about 0% or nothing with dividends reinvested. That is, it will be right back to where it was at the end of today since bond ETFs are down more than 0.4% today.

So in the next 2 hours, I think I will submit an order similar to the 9/25 order: Sell Small-caps and buy shares in a bond fund. I'll post an update before the market closes.

007 Update: I sold small-cap index ETF and have bought total bond index ETF, so I expect small-caps to go higher and bonds to go lower to toss an extra loss my way.

Update to update: Based on closing prices of the ETFs I traded, I am $35 richer for having done this trade versus not doing the trade. Drinks on me tonight!
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Old 12-13-2019, 08:47 AM   #1969
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I cannot explain it, but with the news out after my transactions yesterday and the futures overnight showing gains, I thought that yesterday's trades were going to lose money over doing nothing. I was totally surprised this morning to see the SPSM that I sold to have more losses and the BND that I bought to have gains.

... and then a reversal a short time later. Oh, well.

(11:30 am EST) ... and then a reversal to the reversal. Looking good!
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Old 12-18-2019, 12:32 PM   #1970
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OK, I admit the last trade was only good for about a day, then stocks took off and bonds have dropped. So I am down some money relative to not doing that last trade.
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Old 01-18-2020, 01:55 PM   #1971
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It's been a month since any updates. Since last trades on 12/12/2019 the stock market (Total Stock Index fund) is up 6.1%, Total Bond Index is up 0.4%, small-cap index ETF is up 4.2%, and MTUM is up 6.9%. In others words, I should not have made those trades because I would have made more money doing nothing.

In the meantime, 4th-quarter dividends were paid and either spent or reinvested, but no major transactions were made. My asset allocation is right at my desired equities:fixed income ratio, so no changes or trades anticipated for awhile.
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Old 01-27-2020, 10:11 AM   #1972
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And a week later ... things have gotten interesting. 104

The small-cap ETF has lost 5% and bonds are up, so my immediately previous post of 01-18-2020 is now null-and-void. The things I sold back on 12/12/2019 are trading lower than the price I sold them for and the things I bought are trading higher.

It just goes to show how much luck plays a part in all this market timing stuff.
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Old 01-28-2020, 12:41 PM   #1973
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I trimmed a bit into today's rally. Mostly because I bought something yesterday in the midst of the decline and I hadn't done as much end of year re-balancing as I should have. (I still don't quite know my asset allocations as I need to add a bunch of transactions, both buying and selling - to my tracking spreadsheet. This is the one area where having consolidated accounts would be useful.) If the market continues to run up from here, consider this my "sacrifice to the market gods".
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Old 02-04-2020, 10:18 PM   #1974
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Posting on LOL's thread again. Did a bit more trimming today into the strength. With the 1/28 and today's sales, reduced my equity asset allocation by a little over 1%.
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Old Yesterday, 02:25 PM   #1975
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I haven't made any transactions in a while, but today I sold some VEA (large-cap developed foreign) to get some money to pay some upcoming bills. 924 I chose VEA for two reasons: (1) it had the least percentage gain of anything in my taxable account, so any realized gains won't dig into my carryover losses that much, and (2) it had the least one-day drop today of anything in my taxable account.

I don't see stock markets going up in any significant amount until the coronavirus thing has more clarity. In the meantime there will be quite a bit of downward pressure. I may have to rebalance from bonds into equities if stock markets drop violently, but as long as it is a slow drip-drip-drip downward, then I won't be buying equities nor rebalancing.
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