LOL!'s Market Timing Newsletter

Awful day today. Dow just went below 12,000 quite decisively, now at 11,915 as we speak.

I am concerned we might see a prolonged decline as bad news seems to be the order of the day, week, month and year. :(

I am fortunately a little more insulated from the drop, as I have most of my assets in Individual Corporate bonds and preferred shares, but I have enough stocks to feel the pain when they go down 1.5% daily, day after day......:(:(
 
NICE!!! Good day today!!! My allocation is out of sync so going rebalance tomorrow.

I might sell some taxable acct funds and use it to fund 529 if it drops more.
 
I like catching a falling knife, so bought some shares of VWO a moment ago 9:44 am @ 45.375 I've already lost money on them. :)
 
The market seems to be exhibiting all the signs of raw panic. Many of the Oils I follow are down 3-4%, having lost close to 6% or more just over the past 3 days.

Not good, definitely not good. Hope things recover soon. :(
 
Bought more VWO 44.7 and some VSS.
 
Position of 7/27 is now down 9.5%
 
Exchange more from bond fund PTRAX to extended-market index FSEMX at today's NAV.
 
More knife catching: Exchange from FBIDX (bond fund) to FUSEX (S&P500) index fund at close today.
 
An update: All the losses in the early buys have been made up by the gains in the later buys. Net result as of today: no gain, no loss in the equity fund purchases.

However, since the money to buy equities came out of a couple of bond funds which have gone up 2% since 7/27 I can say that these trades are still in the hole.
 
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LOL! said:
However, since the money to buy equities came out of a couple of bond funds which have gone up 2% since 7/27 I can say that these trades are still in the hole.
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Ooops, the above is not quite true. It turns out I used my PIMCO Total Return bond fund (PTRAX) for some of these exchanges and it did not go up 2%, but lost some after my exchanges (see those threads about Bill Gross). And the last exchange on 8/18 was after FBIDX had gone up 2%.
 
Met a retired friend ( also FIRE ) at the pool today, and he was recommending that I check up on a fund ARTSX. Has anyone come across this, and what is your opinion of it?
 
Coolius said:
Met a retired friend ( also FIRE ) at the pool today, and he was recommending that I check up on a fund ARTSX. Has anyone come across this, and what is your opinion of it?
Click to expand...
Looks like a small cap fund that would have been a great buy a year ago. Now...maybe not so much.
 
Question: If the market goes up and I re-balance towards 40% stock and 60% bonds, then the market falls by 15% and I move a chunk from bonds to stocks, then the market goes back up and I re-balance back to 40% stocks by selling stocks and buying bonds, am I timing the market? Or, am I simply taking advantage of the opportunities that happen to come my way? Just curious....
 
sbwitte said:
Question: If the market goes up and I re-balance towards 40% stock and 60% bonds, then the market falls by 15% and I move a chunk from bonds to stocks, then the market goes back up and I re-balance back to 40% stocks by selling stocks and buying bonds, am I timing the market? Or, am I simply taking advantage of the opportunities that happen to come my way? Just curious....
Click to expand...
Nah....not timing.
If you want to run with the big dogs, you need to start flashing charts and using terms like MACD, Bollinger Bands, envelopes, CCI, RSI, oscilllator, stochastics (fast, slow, and full,) and everyones favorite--Fibonacci numbers.
When you can speak a ten word sentence using five of these you'll be allowed to shed the training wheels....:cool:
 
Coolius said:
Met a retired friend ( also FIRE ) at the pool today, and he was recommending that I check up on a fund ARTSX. Has anyone come across this, and what is your opinion of it?
Click to expand...
I'd say that you need a different pool, and possibly a different friend.

He has no idea what goals, asset allocations, or timelines you're dealing with... only how well his funds are performing. If indeed they really are his funds in the first place.

For a really entertaining discussion, ask him about his worst-performing funds.
 
Nords said:
I'd say that you need a different pool, and possibly a different friend.

He has no idea what goals, asset allocations, or timelines you're dealing with... only how well his funds are performing. If indeed they really are his funds in the first place.

For a really entertaining discussion, ask him about his worst-performing funds.
Click to expand...
OTOH, when the pool friends, cabbies, and dentists start giving tips, it could be a sign of a market top...
Ho hum, how did the market do today??:facepalm::facepalm:
 
Nords said:
I'd say that you need a different pool, and possibly a different friend.

He has no idea what goals, asset allocations, or timelines you're dealing with... only how well his funds are performing. If indeed they really are his funds in the first place.

For a really entertaining discussion, ask him about his worst-performing funds.
Click to expand...


Ha ha! :LOL:

yes, you are right, he has no idea of my personal financial position, except that I'm already retired, like him. But then, he has always been an aggressive investor.

I'm happy with my AA at present, and no plans to change or jump into the "recommended stock/fund/ETF of the day"

I checked up on the fund ARTSX, and it seems way too aggressive for my kind of investing.
 
LOL! said:
More knife catching: Exchange from FBIDX (bond fund) to FUSEX (S&P500) index fund at close today.
Click to expand...
Sell the FUSEX today for a gain of at least 4% in the last few weeks. My US equities were overweighted from where I normally want them, so this will bring me back towards where I want to be. The proceeds of this sale stay in cash right now.
 
LOL! said:
Sell the FUSEX today for a gain of at least 4% in the last few weeks. My US equities were overweighted from where I normally want them, so this will bring me back towards where I want to be. The proceeds of this sale stay in cash right now.
Click to expand...
I wasn't around for the start of this. Is this your real time, real money account, with a substantial account balance?

If so, you have nerve.

Ha
 
haha said:
I wasn't around for the start of this. Is this your real time, real money account, with a substantial account balance?

If so, you have nerve.

Ha
Click to expand...
Yes to the first two, but it's less than 10% of account balance, yet still in the 6-figure range, so that's probably yes to the last one as well.
 
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Forget to add this trade last week:

On 9/28 Sold some short-term bond fund shares VCSH @77.85 in order to raise some more cash for equities purchase.

Increased 401(k) contribution to 70% of paycheck, but that contribution went into a bond fund.

Have not bought equities yet though. I already missed the 7% to 11% run up since Oct 3 with new money. Still slightly overweight though in equities.
 
I just finished reading this entire thread and somehow feel like I've been on Facebook the whole time.
 
Sell FSEMX today at a profit (bought on 8/8 and 7/27 as mentioned previously in this thread). Buy more VSS (int'l mid/small) to keep percentage of equities about the same.

This is a rebalance from US mid/small cap to foreign mid/small cap since foreign mid/small caps have not done so well in 2011.
 
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