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Old 08-16-2019, 01:33 PM   #61
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I know a lot of people believe this, but I think it misses an important point: there are two parts to the retirement equation, time and money. If you are overly conservative with money then you are throwing away time to enjoy life. To me, the goal is to have the best possible life. As someone who has performed modeling their whole career, I would suggest the best way to balance both time and money is to perform an analysis with a best guess of likely market returns and look at the range of possibilities around this. Using this, I would develop strategies that minimize the likelihood of bad outcomes, both in terms of running out of money and in not having enough free time to do the things in life I want.
I'm not sure we really disagree on this. One does not necessarily need to go nuts either being optimistic or pessimistic. Another factor that gets overlooked a lot is that withdrawal rates are probably never constant and can almost always be managed. So manage for happiness early on with the understanding that a cutback may be necessary in the future.

All we really need is enough. Recounted in a couple of Bogle's books:
At a party given by a billionaire on Shelter Island, the late Kurt Vonnegut informs his pal, author Joseph Heller, that their host, a hedge fund manager, had made more money in a single day than Heller had earned from his wildly popular novel, Catch-22, over its whole history. Heller responds, Yes, but I have something he will never have enough.
https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2013/12/enough/

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Well you could increase your odds of identifying if you look at those that buy lottery tickets versus those that don't.
Actually, when our state put in a lottery the local public radio station interviewed a statistics professor from UC Berkeley. His comment was: "Well, your odds of winning are about the same whether you buy a ticket or not."
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Old 08-21-2019, 08:31 PM   #62
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Originally Posted by OldShooter View Post
I'm not sure we really disagree on this. One does not necessarily need to go nuts either being optimistic or pessimistic. Another factor that gets overlooked a lot is that withdrawal rates are probably never constant and can almost always be managed. So manage for happiness early on with the understanding that a cutback may be necessary in the future.

All we really need is enough. Recounted in a couple of Bogle's books:
At a party given by a billionaire on Shelter Island, the late Kurt Vonnegut informs his pal, author Joseph Heller, that their host, a hedge fund manager, had made more money in a single day than Heller had earned from his wildly popular novel, Catch-22, over its whole history. Heller responds, Yes, but I have something he will never have enough.
https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2013/12/enough/

Actually, when our state put in a lottery the local public radio station interviewed a statistics professor from UC Berkeley. His comment was: "Well, your odds of winning are about the same whether you buy a ticket or not."
I/we have 'enough'.

I have oft repeated the quote, "your chances are about the same wether you buy a ticket or not".

Even so, I buy Hit 5 ticket from time to time. One chance in about 574,000.

Otherwise, I buy a coffee at McDonalds--$1 with free refills--and I drink a lot of coffee. (Actually, pretty good coffee as well.)
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Old 08-22-2019, 08:13 AM   #63
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Our portfolio with VG (90% of our net worth, does not include home) over 10 years is 5.2%. We've been invested in the boring 60/40 category since early 2000's. Made a few adjustments, nothing major. We have not WD and gains are slow and steady. We re-invest all dividends and capital gains.
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Old 08-22-2019, 09:31 AM   #64
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I/we have 'enough'.
I also have "enough" (but of course being greedy I always enjoy having more).

Having made it to the SS eligibility age and being able to draw it any time I need it, I am also just a couple of years from Medicare. Ah, finally something good coming out of getting old. Darn, I need to remind myself of some silver linings. Yesterday, in the middle of the night when I turned in bed, I felt pain in my left shoulder. It was bad, but not a sharp pain as I had with the right shoulder last year (which slowly went away over the next several months).

Back on market returns, with SS and Medicare, plus my spending going down all the time I am not worried about SORR. There's some advantage to working till your mid 50s, compared to youngsters who ER in their 40s. These also did not work that long to have much SS either.

At this point, I can see my WR going down below 2% and I still have the same lifestyle. I still like to be in the market and try to make money. It's something to do, and challenging.
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Old 08-28-2019, 06:59 AM   #65
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I have averaged 5.8% over past 30 years at 65% stocks. After retirement I am at 50% stocks and use a 4.5% estimate for future earnings.
Hi is that 5.8% net of inflation or a straight 5.8% which would seeM low for 65% AA .. just interested for my own FIRE planning.
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