Looking to chat to sophisticated investors

[COcheesehead]

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Originally Posted by Fedup I think they do, that's why a lot of people are in cash. I wouldn't underestimate most investors.

Insert contrarian comment here.

[redduck]

Quote:

Originally Posted by planman SAMCLEM I started the thread in the hope that we could trade ideas. I have no interest in telling you anything or anyone else anything if I get nothing in return.

That's the spirit!!!

Quote:

Ill trade ideas via PM with anyone who has something of value to trade

OK, now. Let's make a trade. I'll tell you what my favorite protein bar is and you tell me what your favorite protein bar is. But, I don't understand why this trade has to be via PM. It seems as if you don't you want samclem to know.

[planman]

With all do respect I think SAMCLEM may have had one to many protein bars

[redduck]

But how about addressing the question of trading ideas via PM's? What's the point of that?

[Gumby]

Quote:

Originally Posted by redduck But how about addressing the question of trading ideas via PM's? What's the point of that?

Yes. Inquiring minds want to know.

[samclem]

Quote:

Originally Posted by redduck OK, now. Let's make a trade. I'll tell you what my favorite protein bar is and you tell me what your favorite protein bar is. But, I don't understand why this trade has to be via PM. It seems as if you don't you want samclem to know.

I can't disclose what I just learned from an undisclosed new poster, but it involves a special short strategy involving a straddle and a double hop. The equity will remain unnamed, but it might be a protein bar company.
To get the tip, I offered a proven strategy that allows an investor to do better in the market than 85% of investors.
But this is all on the QT, don't tell anyone or I'll be cut off from future goldmines.

[Ready]

Hey, I've posted my thoughts on protein bars for everyone to see and challenge. I don't see why it should be any different here.

[samclem]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ready Hey, I've posted my thoughts on protein bars for everyone to see and challenge. I don't see why it should be any different here.

You shouldn't be giving those valuable insights away for nuthin.
"Free milk and the cow," dontcha know.

[easysurfer]

I had to recuse myself from this thread as I'm definitely not sophisticated .

[planman]

I started the thread to see if there were any 50 somethings in the Florida area that were sophisticated investors for me to establish a dialog with. But as usual whenever you have a picnic a few flies show up. I've posted a few ideas on this thread publicly anyone who wants to trade further ideas can PM me.

[Ready]

Quote:

Originally Posted by samclem For whatever reason, there are herds of great traders willing to tell anyone who will listen about how well they >did<. In one named portfolio. Looking forward or seeing the entire record somehow spoils the magic. A trader who can really pick a high percentage of winners over time could use options/leverage to grow fabulously rich in short order. There are few instances of this.

I find the same phenomenon exists with Las Vegas gamblers, of which I have more than a few friends and family members. They love to tell me how much they made in Las Vegas. But they tend to focus on the trips they won, while conveniently forgetting the trips they lost big. And they purposely avoid keeping close track of their total wins/losses because they want to have selective memory and conveniently forget the times they lost their shirt. Gamblers are predisposed to believing they can beat the system. They will rationalize this and selectively recall the facts that support this position.

[planman]

Ready, Samclem, Redduck come up with an original idea other than following the herd of sheep in an index fund and I'm all ears, otherwise engaging in this type of mastrubation is a waste of everyone's time boys

[dixonge]

Here's my hot tip:

Quote:

“The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.” - John Maynard Keynes

[redduck]

dixonge, for your hot tip I'm will tell you what my favorite
protein bar is:Kirkland Soft & Chewy Granola Bar, Chocolate Chip.
(Don't tell samclem, because he refuses to share information for free).

[planman]

Now what do you think Keynes would think of Fama ? IMHO Keynes makes the perfect case for inefficient markets and the weak form of the EMH. Fama carved out several market anomalies in his work on EMH. Learning about these areas by reading books by Peter Lynch and Seth Klarman may give you a basis to develop some original ideas.

[Boho]

Quote:

Originally Posted by planman Now what do you think Keynes would think of Fama ? IMHO Keynes makes the perfect case for inefficient markets and the weak form of the EMH. Fama carved out several market anomalies in his work on EMH. Learning about these areas by reading books by Peter Lynch and Seth Klarman may give you a basis to develop some original ideas.

That aspect of investing never interested me because I just assumed that there are inefficiencies. I even think everyone believes it on some level. Even if through some magic the average prices at the end of the daily rise and fall make it efficient, the fluctuations during the day matter and there are limit orders to catch favorable inefficient prices. It's a non-issue unless there's a deeper argument that I'm too closed minded about this to have found.

[Fedup]

I just don't think I can beat the hedge funds when it comes to these sort of arbitrage and such, and they are not beating the indexes. So back to boggle investing style.

[samclem]

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Originally Posted by planman Fama carved out several market anomalies in his work on EMH.

I go as far as including a small/value tilt (Fama/French) in my index holdings--I'm not opposed to exploiting inefficiencies even if they aren't satisfactorily explained (IMO). But that's as wild as I get--this dough has to see us through a few decades, longer than Mr Lynch was able to help me out through Magellan. Not looking for a guru or the next hot thing, but remain very, very thankful and grateful to all those seekers who pay the price in their time, effort and commissions to keep the market efficient. Without them, indexing wouldn't be the effective tool that it is. Nearly a free lunch!

[aja8888]

You guys are a tough bunch.

[FUEGO]

I buy the winners. Well, mostly the winners. They are easy to identify because they go up the most. Losers aren't good and I avoid those. They tend to do poorly so I avoid them. That's it - pick the winners and ditch the losers.