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Old 04-19-2019, 10:37 AM   #61
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I'm not going to try to boho the situation...
And a new word enters our lexicon here at ER.org!

Do we need to add it to http://www.early-retirement.org/foru...um-34884.html? ?

-ERD50
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Old 04-19-2019, 03:59 PM   #62
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Originally Posted by ERD50 View Post
And a new word enters our lexicon here at ER.org!
I think we continue to use it and make people wonder what it means for a while. Or pick it up in context.


So right now I'll give people an example of what it means...I'm going to boho the results by looking only at a subset of results: Closed positions only.


Charting closed positions alone is too noisy. But if I put a moving average on it, see how the dark blue lines are going in the "right direction" and the yellow and pink are going in the wrong direction? Never mind that "COMBINED" has made less than 1/3 the cash of VOO.
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Old 06-20-2019, 12:32 PM   #63
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The 2018 June picks turned in an horrific result of -38.5%. The small cap benchmarks got hit a little bit, and the S&P showed a nice gain over the span. This batch wiped out all earlier gains accumulated in the scheme, and took the overall results negative.

364 Days ending 06/20/2019XIRR for Jun 2018 batchXIRR 1091 days (all)gain/loss (all)
Magic Formula Picks
-38.5%
-4.4%
-$9717
US Small Cap Value Index (CRSPSCVT)
-4.4%
6.7%
$17611
Vanguard Small-Cap ETF (VBR)
-4.2%
6.8%
$17878
Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO)
8.9%
13.4%
$36687


Looks like a few falling knives were caught:

TickerExecuted price Execution date XIRR
CRSPSCVT
2136.11
06/21/2018 12:00
-4.4%
Benchmark June 2019 Sale
VBR
130.25
06/21/2018 12:00
-4.2%
Benchmark June 2019 Sale
VOO
270.71
06/21/2018 12:00
8.9%
Benchmark June 2019 Sale
ACOR
7.54
06/21/2018 12:00
-75.0%
June 2019 Sale
IDCC
64.30
06/21/2018 12:00
-22.0%
June 2019 Sale
KLAC
113.20
06/21/2018 12:00
5.4%
June 2019 Sale
TUP
19.23
06/21/2018 12:00
-50.3%
June 2019 Sale
WDC
39.31
06/21/2018 12:00
-50.4%
June 2019 Sale
ALL  
-38.5%
June 2019 Sale

The random picks for June 2019:

TickerExecuted price Execution date
CRSPSCVT
2136.11
06/20/2019 12:00Benchmark
VBR
130.25
06/20/2019 12:00Benchmark
VOO
270.71
06/20/2019 12:00Benchmark
GTX
15.35
06/20/2019 12:00June 2019 Picks
INVA
14.38
06/20/2019 12:00June 2019 Picks
LGND
113.80
06/20/2019 12:00June 2019 Picks
MBUU
38.35
06/20/2019 12:00June 2019 Picks
NRT
6.82
06/20/2019 12:00June 2019 Picks
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Old 06-21-2019, 07:49 AM   #64
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Starting to move into "can't come back from that" territory. Pity.
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Old 06-21-2019, 08:15 AM   #65
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The 2018 June picks turned in an horrific result of -38.5%. The small cap benchmarks got hit a little bit, and the S&P showed a nice gain over the span. This batch wiped out all earlier gains accumulated in the scheme, and took the overall results negative. ...
I just looked and we are 3 years into this. Wow, seems like the "Magic Formula" is a disappearing act, for your money!

(I fat-fingered "disappearing", and spell checker recommended " diapering" - hmmm, that might work too?)

Do you have a month-to-month chart/table of the MF picks (hmm, maybe MF fits too?) versus Total Market or SPY? I'd guess that not only did it under-perform, but also had a much higher standard dev. All rather interesting, as any picks really should average out over time. It should be as difficult (or as easy) to pick under-performers as it is over-performers. I wonder if the results were different, would people be thinking this was a good system?

Chalk up another tick-mark for passive investing. We'll see what Running_Man comes up with next.

-ERD50
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Old 06-21-2019, 08:26 AM   #66
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Originally Posted by ERD50 View Post
I just looked and we are 3 years into this. Wow, seems like the "Magic Formula" is a disappearing act, for your money!

(I fat-fingered "disappearing", and spell checker recommended " diapering" - hmmm, that might work too?)

Do you have a month-to-month chart/table of the MF picks (hmm, maybe MF fits too?) versus Total Market or SPY? I'd guess that not only did it under-perform, but also had a much higher standard dev. All rather interesting, as any picks really should average out over time. It should be as difficult (or as easy) to pick under-performers as it is over-performers. I wonder if the results were different, would people be thinking this was a good system?

Chalk up another tick-mark for passive investing. We'll see what Running_Man comes up with next.

-ERD50
Do not associate me with threads in which I do not post, I have never commented or contributed to it as I hold a negative opinion of the strategy after reading the book. I am willing to be held accountable for individual stock investments that I actually propose.
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Old 06-21-2019, 08:39 AM   #67
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Starting to move into "can't come back from that" territory. Pity.
Oh, I disagree. Failed experiments have significant value. IMO that is particularly true in investing and on forums where successes are trumpeted, claims based on backtesting are frequent, and failures are rarely mentioned.

And, I really like this kind of experiment where it is run in real time and with real money. Anyone can torture the data and come up with schemes that backtest well, but real investments with real money makes for real results. We owe thanks to @sengsational.
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Old 06-21-2019, 08:58 AM   #68
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Do not associate me with threads in which I do not post, I have never commented or contributed to it as I hold a negative opinion of the strategy after reading the book. I am willing to be held accountable for individual stock investments that I actually propose.
Sorry if I touched a nerve. Nothing I said is "holding you accountable" to the system in this thread. It was just a passing comment that there will be another, separate analysis coming up.

-ERD50
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Old 06-21-2019, 04:40 PM   #69
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I do like the logic the book author presented, and I like large samples over large time periods in studies.. The author of little book ran his study from 1988 to 2004 (p 61) and had 3 studies of 1500 picks per study. (4500 selections)

On p 91 he said regarding 3 year periods it beat the market 95% of the time. that was 160 of 169 three year periods.

on p 107 he said most people should be in index funds and match the market. To me this is probability stuff, and even in Vegas occasionally a casino loses despite having the odds in their favor. At the very least if I buy it would seem more likely hood that the company has a future than a random dart throw.
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Old 07-01-2019, 10:56 AM   #70
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What I have been attempting to do is document the process as defined in the "... still beats the market" book (the later printing). That process didn't prescribe a certain amount of various market cap levels. You can eliminate the smallest companies when you get the current list of companies that meet his screen on magicformula.com, but he says that's just to give people a slightly different list to randomly pick from.



Based on what I've seen since I've been running the defined process, I'm thinking that the market is not working the same way it used to. Either that or maybe the data/process was "over-fit", such that using the defined process was never going to work as we moved into the future.


Quote:
Originally Posted by ERD50 View Post
Do you have a month-to-month chart/table of the MF picks (hmm, maybe MF fits too?) versus Total Market or SPY? I'd guess that not only did it under-perform, but also had a much higher standard dev. All rather interesting, as any picks really should average out over time. It should be as difficult (or as easy) to pick under-performers as it is over-performers. I wonder if the results were different, would people be thinking this was a good system?

I'm not sure what you're looking for here. Every pick's buy/sell dates and prices are in this thread, posted the day of the buy or sell. You're thinking of a price over time chart? I haven't been "marking to market", just have been documenting the buy and sell dates and prices, so the points are one year apart.
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Old 07-01-2019, 11:36 AM   #71
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... I'm not sure what you're looking for here. Every pick's buy/sell dates and prices are in this thread, posted the day of the buy or sell. You're thinking of a price over time chart? I haven't been "marking to market", just have been documenting the buy and sell dates and prices, so the points are one year apart.
Yes, a monthly mark-to-market (like the Boho contest). We could look at volatility versus the market. If you don't have it, no big deal, just curious. Though, since it is lagging this much anyhow, the volatility is kind of a non-issue for me at this point.

Interesting experiment though. And similarly, had this done well, would that just be an expected deviation from norm, some time periods/tests doing well, others doing poorly?

-ERD50
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Old 07-31-2019, 10:14 AM   #72
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Here's another attempt to Boho the results of this experiment...We're in a particularly bad time for value stocks, according to this:






That came from this page https://www.marottaonmoney.com/value...ons-of-growth/, which basically says that you have been able to buy growth equities fairly cheaply over some recent spans of time, based on PE, so those were a better bet than value equities.
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Old 08-15-2019, 03:11 PM   #73
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Another horrific batch from last August until now, down 43%. The small cap benchmarks lost "only" 11%. And our old standby, the S&P 500 gained a few percent in the last 12 months.

This exercise is turning out to be a great lesson in "just buy the whole market and find something else to spend your time on"

364 Days ending 08/15/2019XIRR for Aug 2018 batchXIRR 1147 days (all)gain/loss (all)
Magic Formula Picks
-43.4%
-8.8%
-$19802
US Small Cap Value Index (CRSPSCVT)
-11.6%
3.9%
$10437
Vanguard Small-Cap ETF (VBR)
-11.4%
3.9%
$10628
Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO)
2.1%
11.4%
$32825

Here are the specifics of last August's picks that went to H-E double hockey stick in a handbasket:

TickerPrice 08/15/2019Execution date XIRR
CRSPSCVT
2001.12
08/16/2018 13:30
-11.6%
Benchmark August 2019 Sale
VBR
121.25
08/16/2018 13:30
-11.4%
Benchmark August 2019 Sale
VOO
261.44
08/16/2018 13:30
2.1%
Benchmark August 2019 Sale
AEIS
47.52
08/16/2018 13:30
-20.2%
August 2019 Sale
CASA
6.21
08/16/2018 13:30
-48.9%
August 2019 Sale
DXC
30.89
08/16/2018 13:30
-64.1%
August 2019 Sale
MIK
5.19
08/16/2018 13:30
-74.5%
August 2019 Sale
SGH
27.77
08/16/2018 13:30
-6.2%
August 2019 Sale
ALL  
-43.4%
August 2019 Sale

And for this batch, the "gifted" random picker came up with:

TickerPriceDate
CRSPSCVT
2001.12
08/15/2019 15:00Benchmark
VBR
121.25
08/15/2019 15:00Benchmark
VOO
261.44
08/15/2019 15:00Benchmark
BBY
63.91
08/15/2019 15:00August 2019 Picks
EEX
9.49
08/15/2019 15:00August 2019 Picks
FIZZ
41.59
08/15/2019 15:00August 2019 Picks
JW-A
41.63
08/15/2019 15:00August 2019 Picks
LEE
2.03
08/15/2019 15:00August 2019 Picks
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Old 10-03-2019, 01:47 PM   #74
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Starting to move into "can't come back from that" territory. Pity.
Yeah, and getting worse!

This last batch, over the last year, lost 28% while the small cap indexes lost only 5%, and the trusty S&P 500 gained 4.4%. I'm wondering if there might have been a bit of cherry picking in the book's picks. It wouldn't take much...swap out a few really bad ones for a few really good ones.

358 Days ending 10/03/2019XIRR for Oct 2018 batchXIRR 1196 days (all)gain/loss (all)
Magic Formula Picks
-28.2%
-7.2%
-$17325
US Small Cap Value Index (CRSPSCVT)
-5.3%
4.8%
$13890
Vanguard Small-Cap ETF (VBR)
-5.2%
4.9%
$14065
Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO)
4.4%
11.7%
$35777

This time, there were a few good ones (25% gain), but offset by some horrible ones:
TickerExecuted price Execution date XIRR
CRSPSCVT
2066.09
10/10/2018 11:46
-5.3%
Benchmark October 2019 Sale
VBR
124.71
10/10/2018 11:46
-5.2%
Benchmark October 2019 Sale
VOO
266.19
10/10/2018 11:46
4.4%
Benchmark October 2019 Sale
CJREF
3.96
10/10/2018 11:46
25.8%
October 2019 Sale
FTSI
2.06
10/10/2018 11:46
-83.9%
October 2019 Sale
NKTR
17.88
10/10/2018 11:46
-65.2%
October 2019 Sale
SRNE
2.20
10/10/2018 11:46
-41.2%
October 2019 Sale
STX
52.70
10/10/2018 11:46
25.0%
October 2019 Sale
ALL  
-28.2%
October 2019 Sale

And, limping along, I'll post the next set of random picks:
TickerPriceDate
CRSPSCVT
2066.09
10/03/2019 14:00Benchmark
VBR
124.71
10/03/2019 14:00Benchmark
VOO
266.19
10/03/2019 14:00Benchmark
ARNA
45.59
10/03/2019 14:00October 2019 Picks
CBS
38.40
10/03/2019 14:00October 2019 Picks
JAZZ
125.50
10/03/2019 14:00October 2019 Picks
PCOM
11.35
10/03/2019 14:00October 2019 Picks
REZI
13.43
10/03/2019 14:00October 2019 Picks
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Old 12-12-2019, 03:27 PM   #75
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In the continuing saga of "what not to do", or "this is why we just just buy the index", we've had another bad batch: The picks from one year ago are down 19.4%, while the small cap indexes are up 15% and the good old S&P 500 was up 24%. Across all batches, the small cap indexes made 4.5%, while the magic formula picks lost 5%. Meanwhile, the S&P turned in an 11% gain across the entire period.

363 Days ending 12/12/2019XIRR for Dec 2018 batchXIRR 1266 days (all)gain/loss (all)
Magic Formula Picks
-19.4%
-5.0%
-$13046
US Small Cap Value Index (CRSPSCVT)
15.4%
4.5%
$13890
Vanguard Small-Cap ETF (VBR)
15.6%
4.6%
$14065
Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO)
24.0%
11.0%
$35777

The batch just sold had an immense looser -91% (TUSK) and a grand looser -45% (HEAR). The gainers didn't stand a chance to make up for those.

TickerExecuted price Execution date XIRR
CRSPSCVT
2257.41
12/14/2018 14:00
15.4%
Benchmark December 2019 Sale
VBR
136.31
12/14/2018 14:00
15.6%
Benchmark December 2019 Sale
VOO
291.28
12/14/2018 14:00
24.0%
Benchmark December 2019 Sale
EAF
12.39
12/14/2018 14:00
5.0%
December 2019 Sale
HEAR
9.10
12/14/2018 14:00
-44.8%
December 2019 Sale
ONTO
34.46
12/14/2018 14:00
21.4%
December 2019 Sale (was NANO)
PETS
23.08
12/14/2018 14:00
5.1%
December 2019 Sale
TUSK
1.70
12/14/2018 14:00
-91.1%
December 2019 Sale
ALL  
-19.4%
December 2019 Sale

And, as much as it pains me to continue the "five year mission", today's random picks are as follows:

TickerPriceDate
CRSPSCVT
2257.41
12/12/2019 15:30Benchmark
VBR
136.31
12/12/2019 15:30Benchmark
VOO
291.28
12/12/2019 15:30Benchmark
BRBR
20.88
12/12/2019 15:30December 2019 Picks
HCC
20.61
12/12/2019 15:30December 2019 Picks
HI
33.60
12/12/2019 15:30December 2019 Picks
LXRX
5.10
12/12/2019 15:30December 2019 Picks
PTN
.81
12/12/2019 15:30December 2019 Picks
TUSK
1.70
12/12/2019 15:30Continue to hold
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Old 12-12-2019, 04:37 PM   #76
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Quote:
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... And, as much as it pains me to continue ...
In drug trials they will stop early if the results, whether positive or negative, clearly justify it.
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Old 12-15-2019, 06:33 AM   #77
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Would be nice if someone from the Greenblatt could comment on these results.
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Old 02-20-2020, 10:53 AM   #78
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More of the same.
364 Days ending 02/20/2020XIRR for Feb 2019 batchXIRR 1336 days (all)gain/loss (all)
Magic Formula Picks
-26.2%
-5.5%
-$14977
US Small Cap Value Index (CRSPSCVT)
6.2%
7.7%
$26345
Vanguard Small-Cap ETF (VBR)
5.2%
7.8%
$26441
Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO)
15.8%
15.7%
$57856

FRSH was a cash buy-out in May.
TickerPrice Date XIRR
CRSPSCVT
2300.45
02/20/2020 10:30
6.2%
Benchmark February 2020 Sale
VBR
137.73
02/20/2020 10:30
5.2%
Benchmark February 2020 Sale
VOO
311.00
02/20/2020 10:30
15.8%
Benchmark February 2020 Sale
ALSN
44.23
02/20/2020 10:30
-10.1%
February 2020 Sale
FNJN
1.80
02/20/2020 10:30
-44.4%
February 2020 Sale
FRSH
6.45
05/28/2019 00:00
101.0%
February 2020 Sale
LTRPA
6.37
02/20/2020 10:30
-60.3%
February 2020 Sale
SYX
22.72
02/20/2020 10:30
-5.8%
February 2020 Sale
ALL  
-26.2%
February 2020 Sale


TickerPriceDate
CRSPSCVT
2300.45
02/20/2020 10:30Benchmark
VBR
137.73
02/20/2020 10:30Benchmark
VOO
311
02/20/2020 10:30Benchmark
CLCT
24.76
02/20/2020 11:00February 2020 Picks
PINC
31.43
02/20/2020 11:00February 2020 Picks
PRDO
17.89
02/20/2020 11:00February 2020 Picks
QMCO
5.53
02/20/2020 11:00February 2020 Picks
SUPN
24.02
02/20/2020 11:00February 2020 Picks
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Old 04-16-2020, 02:58 PM   #79
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Small cap took an horrific beating: the indexes down 30% for the last 12 months. Interestingly, the small caps are now down 5% over the 1392 days (3.8 years). Maybe if someone started this experiment now, the small caps would beat the S&P!

In the last year the good old S&P 500 lost only 2%, and is the only category still showing an increase from when the experiment started.

362 Days ending 04/16/2020XIRR for Apr 2019 batchXIRR 1392 days (all)gain/loss (all)
Magic Formula Picks
-44.4%
-15.1%
-$38113
US Small Cap Value Index (CRSPSCVT)
-30.8%
-5.2%
-$15995
Vanguard Small-Cap ETF (VBR)
-30.9%
-5.2%
-$15966
Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO)
-2.3%
8.7%
$31543

Here are the details for the picks from 12 months ago:
TickerExecuted price Execution date XIRR
CRSPSCVT
1503.77
04/16/2020 13:40
-30.8%
Benchmark April 2020 Sale
VBR
89.64
04/16/2020 13:40
-30.9%
Benchmark April 2020 Sale
VOO
255.21
04/16/2020 13:40
-2.3%
Benchmark April 2020 Sale
AEZS
0.83
04/16/2020 13:40
-80.7%
April 2020 Sale
EGY
0.79
04/16/2020 13:40
-68.1%
April 2020 Sale
IMMR
6.29
04/16/2020 13:40
-31.7%
April 2020 Sale
SIGA
5.45
04/16/2020 13:40
2.0%
April 2020 Sale
STRL
8.28
04/16/2020 13:40
-40.1%
April 2020 Sale
ALL  
-44.4%
April 2020 Sale

And the random picks this time:
TickerPriceDate
CRSPSCVT
1503.77
04/16/2020 13:40Benchmark
VBR
89.64
04/16/2020 13:40Benchmark
VOO
255.21
04/16/2020 13:40Benchmark
EBIX
16.28
04/16/2020 13:40April 2020 Picks
HUD
4.52
04/16/2020 13:40April 2020 Picks
MLHR
18.24
04/16/2020 13:40April 2020 Picks
RHI
39.69
04/16/2020 13:40April 2020 Picks
WHD
12.05
04/16/2020 13:40April 2020 Picks
AEZS
.83
04/16/2020 13:40Continue to hold
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Old 06-18-2020, 12:07 PM   #80
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After 4 years, the fallen angel stocks have done worse than the small stock benchmark, and much worse than the good old S&P 500. Looking back one year, the picks did about the same as the index, while the S&P has shown a nice gain.

364 Days ending 06/18/2020XIRR for Jun 2019 batchXIRR 1455 days (all)gain/loss (all)
Magic Formula Picks
-14.4%
-6.8%
-$20017
US Small Cap Value Index (CRSPSCVT)
-15.0%
-5.0%
-$15995
Vanguard Small-Cap ETF (VBR)
-15.0%
-5.0%
-$15966
Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO)
7.7%
8.3%
$31543

TickerExecuted price Execution date XIRR
CRSPSCVT
1815.84
06/20/2019 12:00
-15.0%
Benchmark June 2020 Sale
VBR
108.46
06/20/2019 12:00
-15.0%
Benchmark June 2020 Sale
VOO
286.06
06/20/2019 12:00
7.7%
Benchmark June 2020 Sale
GTX
4.94
06/20/2019 12:00
-68.0%
June 2020 Sale
INVA
13.42
06/20/2019 12:00
-6.7%
June 2020 Sale
LGND
110.97
06/20/2019 12:00
-2.5%
June 2020 Sale
MBUU
51.96
06/20/2019 12:00
35.6%
June 2020 Sale
NRT
3.97
06/20/2019 12:00
-35.1%
June 2020 Sale
ALL  
-14.4%
June 2020 Sale

TickerPriceDate
CRSPSCVT
1815.84
06/18/2020 12:38Benchmark
VBR
108.46
06/18/2020 12:38Benchmark
VOO
286.06
06/18/2020 12:38Benchmark
CPRX
4.48
06/18/2020 13:40June 2020 Picks
NCMI
3.18
06/18/2020 13:40June 2020 Picks
ODP
2.33
06/18/2020 13:40June 2020 Picks
SCS
12.07
06/18/2020 13:40June 2020 Picks
TZOO
6.92
06/18/2020 13:40June 2020 Picks
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