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Maintain the expectancy of 1500 on the SPX
Old 03-29-2020, 05:26 AM   #1
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Maintain the expectancy of 1500 on the SPX

This isn't a market strategy or timing post, it's far from that. I say expect 1500 with a disconnect from a trader's vantage. You won't understand what that means beyond literal terms. To the point, just plan accordingly.

Money isn't math, but most people maintain the credence of the retirement calculator's rate of return. If so plan according to a zero return for the next two years in the absence of a v shape recovery.
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Old 03-29-2020, 06:18 AM   #2
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I think most people on this board understand that the rate of return built into their retirement calculator is not guaranteed and more importantly does not happen in a consistent manner. They realize that some years will be higher and some lower but are looking at the average over time. Further, a lot of people are just expecting their rate of return to cover inflation, so they really don’t have a lot of increase built into their assumptions.

We just came off a great decade plus of returns that were likely very much higher than what most people built into their retirement assumptions, so to have some down years in the next few years, while distasteful, is not unexpected.

Biggest problem that is coming is the sequence of return risk for the recent and very soon to be retired. If they have been reading here, they should be prepared. Most on this board build a lot of cushion into their retirement assumptions.
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Old 03-29-2020, 06:22 AM   #3
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If I understand your post, you expect a 40% drop in the S&P 500, followed by two years of a sideways trending market, regardless of actual economic recovery. Unless, of course, there is a sharp market recovery. Which is like predicting that the weather will be dry unless it rains.

Perhaps you could strive to be a little less cryptic in your posting. Expand on your posts and more people will engage with you.
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Old 03-29-2020, 06:42 AM   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by allstock View Post
You won't understand what that means beyond literal terms. .
Right. No one here knows anything about what this means and we're all so very thankful for your wisdom . . .
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Old 03-29-2020, 06:54 AM   #5
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Originally Posted by Gumby View Post
If I understand your post, you expect a 40% drop in the S&P 500, followed by two years of a sideways trending market, regardless of actual economic recovery. Unless, of course, there is a sharp market recovery. Which is like predicting that the weather will be dry unless it rains.

Perhaps you could strive to be a little less cryptic in your posting. Expand on your posts and more people will engage with you.

It's a short term market level prediction coupled with I don't know what is going to happen. Trailblazing!
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Old 03-29-2020, 06:58 AM   #6
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I say expect 1500 with a disconnect from a trader's vantage.
I understand the SPX 1500 very bearish price target, but I don't understand "with a disconnect from a trader's vantage". Can someone help me translate?
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Old 03-29-2020, 07:34 AM   #7
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If I understand your post, you expect a 40% drop in the S&P 500, followed by two years of a sideways trending market, regardless of actual economic recovery. Unless, of course, there is a sharp market recovery. Which is like predicting that the weather will be dry unless it rains.

Perhaps you could strive to be a little less cryptic in your posting. Expand on your posts and more people will engage with you.
Yes, please be less cryptic
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Old 03-29-2020, 09:16 AM   #8
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My guess is that the crypticness is an attempt to sound smarter than he really is.... and we all know that the smartest guys in the room are not always right in the long run.
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Old 03-29-2020, 09:26 AM   #9
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Quote:
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Perhaps you could strive to be a little less cryptic in your posting.
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Originally Posted by jazz4cash View Post
Yes, please be less cryptic
The cryptic style is essential to his character - just as it was for Karnak the Magnificent.
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Old 03-30-2020, 04:11 AM   #10
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Could be right, could be wrong.

Good marketing ploy though. Forecast something that's outside expectations. If you're correct come back and collect praise, adulation and clients. If wrong just disappear.
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