Marijuana stocks

[MRG]

Quote:

Originally Posted by KCGeezer This an an interesting article to consider. I’ve never built a business that could potentially be as large as these big names in the industry. Anyone have an opinion on the best strategy at this point of the market? I lean towards the Aurora/Canopy approach. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/most-...160000079.html

Right now I'm only in Altria(MO) as it's a long term holding. I may pick up some canopy growth, it's relationship with constellation brands seems beneficial to both..

[KCGeezer]

Between the vaping dangers that have come to light and Hexo’s statement that affected the entire space my little homegrown mutual fund is down a bit.

I don’t usually market time but I did add to the ‘seed tray’ fund today since I think it’s a matter of when not if there’s an eventual harvest.

Anyone else following or playing in this area?

[jazz4cash]

I thought it was a no brainer to put some money into this segment. I tracked a bunch of stocks on Seeking Alpha for awhile but couldn’t choose so I just bought the ETF MJ instead. It’s down about 40% but it’s a tiny position. Pays a dividend, too. I’ll ride for awhile.

[RobbieB]

I'm still smoking -

[NW-Bound]

I have not been interested in MJ stocks. Just ran across the following info to share, that is the black market has boomed and cut into sales of legal businesses which incur expensive licenses and taxes. So much for the theory that legalizing MJ would produce a lot of revenues for the states that allow it.

See the following excerpt, and also the 60 Minutes segment to be aired today Sun 10/27.

Quote:

Legal marijuana in California as a business was supposed to be a no-brainer. How could it not be profitable in a liberal state pushing 40 million residents where some of the best weed in the world has been grown for decades? But nearly three years after Proposition 64, the law legalizing the adult use of the drug, was passed, California cannabis producers are not seeing the windfalls predicted. They tell Sharyn Alfonsi that regulations and a robust black market are cutting into legal pot profits. Alfonsi reports from Northern California's "Emerald Triangle" on the next edition of 60 Minutes, Sunday, October 27, at 7:30 p.m. ET and 7 p.m. PT on CBS. "The regulated market has been a fraction of what everybody expected it to be," says Mikey Steinmetz. So far, he hasn't seen the profits promised to investors who put up $175 million to seed his pot processing center, a sprawling warehouse where he shows Alfonsi tens of thousands of pounds of cannabis being processed for sale to retailers. And those retailers are a big part of the problem – there aren't enough of them. "There's less retailers in California than there are in the State of Oregon," he tells Alfonsi. California has nearly 10 times the population of Oregon. The California law gives local governments the right to regulate the pot shops so towns can prohibit them. A whopping 80% of the state's towns and cities have turned legal pot shops down.

[ziggy29]

That explains why when we drove a bit through CA a couple weeks ago, we saw no weed shops. Here in Oregon you can barely throw a rock without hitting one. Those “green cross” signs are everywhere.

In Oregon the lament is that there is too much supply and prices are under pressure. Which is a problem, I guess, because lower prices means less in taxes, so the state actually wants “price supports” for weed.

[NYEXPAT]

I don't own any as Canadian production is to high and is being warehoused and there are tremendous production increases in the works

[harley]

But even with the absurd regulations and taxes CA, and to a lesser extent the other legal states, pile on, there is still a pretty significant amount of tax income. Washington and CA both had over $300M in tax revenue last year, with CO generating over $250M.

I don't see much hope for CA, as they seem to have to strangle pretty much everything with over regulation. In Oregon, where they made it easy to become legal grower and seller the black market is nearly dead, although they've produced so much that a huge amount of it is being transported illegally out of state. But if the other states would legalize and not over regulate, I think the black market would pretty much dry up. Even I, a known scofflaw, would rather buy something legally than illegally, everything else being equal.

[NW-Bound]

No expert in this area, never even try MJ myself, but I understand that most states that legalize MJ allow users to have a few plants themselves for individual use and not to resell (good luck enforcing that).

So, in that case, I would expect MJ enthusiasts to grow their own and not spend any money to buy, unless it is dirt cheap. From what I read, apparently MJ is easier to grow than even tobacco. I don't see any smoker growing and harvesting tobacco, but growing MJ should be child-play, no?

[aja8888]

Quote:

Originally Posted by NW-Bound I don't see any smoker growing and harvesting tobacco, but growing MJ should be child-play, no?

Well, in my earlier years (70's) and while in college, we (friends and I) grew a bunch of MJ plants in my back yard. Quite simple, actually, but today's techniques and plants are much improved. A lot is grown indoors in controlled conditions nowadays.

[NW-Bound]

I think it is called weed for a simple reason. And when you give any weed some water and fertilizer, you get an abudanza of a crop.

So, who would have to buy MJ? Growing tobacco or brewing your own beer takes more work than that, let alone making your own whisky or cognac which is still illegal.

[RobbieB]

Yup growing pot is easy. The plant is very hardy. But not something you want to advertise and the aroma of ripe female buds is easy to recognize.

IE you don't want people coming over your fence.

[NW-Bound]

Hmmm... If the plant is that stinky before it is even lit, perhaps it can be grown indoors where the aroma can be enjoyed 24/7.

If it is too much, perhaps it can be grown in a glass cage, or a closet? I would think an entrepreneur would already figure out a solution and turn it into a product.

[MRG]

Quote:

Originally Posted by NW-Bound Hmmm... If the plant is that stinky before it is even lit, perhaps it can be grown indoors where the aroma can be enjoyed 24/7. If it is too much, perhaps it can be grown in a glass cage, or a closet? I would think an entrepreneur would already figure out a solution and turn it into a product.

There are many on the market. Most "prebuilt units" are constrained by space and $ per square foot. Sure you can do closet or basement setups you are limited by the law on the number of plants.

Other things to consider for the home gardener is number of strains. At a dispensary I'll have maybe 25-30 strains to select from; sativa for morning and indica at night. How am I going to grow many different strains if I can only have 4-6 plants?

Many dispensaries make their profits on concentrates and edibles($$$). Big money items that people love. Sure you can make them at home but.... it's a lot of work. Making concentrates can involve dangerous stuff like butane. Edibles are fun to make a batch sometimes but it's more work than you think. You cook cannabis to decarb, then extract the THC by double boiling in coconut oil for hours. Then drain, filter, cool.... after all that, you can bake brownies or make gummy bears. For me it's a lot of work to grow and I like to have more concentrates and edibles than I care to make.

Sure there's a black market for cannabis, maybe they should have smart people figure out what happens when you criminalize something that grows in the dirt! Who knew making it illegal would create a black market?

[NW-Bound]

But it is legal now, and there's still a thriving black market!

And as RobbieB said, even if you could grow a mini MJ farm in the backyard, you would be robbed by people jumping the fence.

I grow a lot of vegetable in the backyard, and nobody robs me of it. I have to give it away.

[Jeffman52]

I jumped into CGC Canopy Growth Corporation for a few hundred dollars. Who knows, I might make a few dollars on it.

[NW-Bound]

In 2016, investors expected the market for MJ would hit $6.5 billion by 2020.

And now, in 2019, the sales of MJ are a huge $12 billion, but the problem is that 3/4 of that is illicit. Legal MJ producers are crying uncle because they cannot compete.

See: California cannabis industry sending SOS to state leaders.

[MRG]

Quote:

Originally Posted by NW-Bound In 2016, investors expected the market for MJ would hit $6.5 billion by 2020. And now, in 2019, the sales of MJ are a huge $12 billion, but the problem is that 3/4 of that is illicit. Legal MJ producers are crying uncle because they cannot compete. See: California cannabis industry sending SOS to state leaders.

+1

Greed will battle the black market. Illinois has recreational cannibis coming and it's a great example of how to fail. One article suggests $300 ounces. Why would anyone who has a choice pay that? Greed is going to guarentee the black market flourishes.

[KCGeezer]

I’m back to even! No interest in trying to time individual trades but my little ‘roll your own’ MF is out of the red.

[kgtest]

Quote:

Originally Posted by KCGeezer I’m back to even! No interest in trying to time individual trades but my little ‘roll your own’ MF is out of the red.

Better than "going up in smoke..."

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