NW-Bound
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
- Joined
- Jul 3, 2008
- Messages
- 35,712
Last night surfin' the Web, I ran across an article that I wanted to share, but waited until this morning. Now, I cannot find it except there's a copy on the NY Times and it is behind a paywall. How was I able to read it last night?
Anyway, the gist of the article is that predictions are worthless, and that one is better off practicing indexing and buy-and-hold. OK, nothing earth-shaking here. What caught my eyes was that someone compiled the predictions made by pundits since 2000, and here is what he found.
1) The median prediction is for the market to rise every year. The market did that only 70% of the times.
2) The median prediction calls for an average of almost 10% market rise each year. Since 2000, it has been only 5.5%.
Item 1 is nothing unexpected. Item 2 is what I wanted to share, that is optimists outnumber pessimists.
PS. Hmmm... Thinking more about that 5.5%, that may be the arithmetic average. Perhaps the geometric average is higher, and the data compiler does not use it. Additionally, they are talking about just the price increase and not the total return which includes the dividend.
Anyway, the gist of the article is that predictions are worthless, and that one is better off practicing indexing and buy-and-hold. OK, nothing earth-shaking here. What caught my eyes was that someone compiled the predictions made by pundits since 2000, and here is what he found.
1) The median prediction is for the market to rise every year. The market did that only 70% of the times.
2) The median prediction calls for an average of almost 10% market rise each year. Since 2000, it has been only 5.5%.
Item 1 is nothing unexpected. Item 2 is what I wanted to share, that is optimists outnumber pessimists.
PS. Hmmm... Thinking more about that 5.5%, that may be the arithmetic average. Perhaps the geometric average is higher, and the data compiler does not use it. Additionally, they are talking about just the price increase and not the total return which includes the dividend.
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