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Old 06-22-2022, 10:14 AM   #141
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Originally Posted by almost there View Post
Only thing different was all the printing of $$$$ at near zero% interest. The rest is the same old stuff.
On 2008 the root problem was free money too-- all the mortgages made to borrowers who did not qualify for the loans.
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Old 06-22-2022, 10:21 AM   #142
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Originally Posted by SecondCor521 View Post
Wait...it's not different this time?
It's the end of the world as we know it, and I feel fine.

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Old 06-22-2022, 10:23 AM   #143
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On 2008 the root problem was free money too-- all the mortgages made to borrowers who did not qualify for the loans.
Not sure if foolishly lending existing money, and creating it are the same thing...
Will have to ask someone in Zimbabwe.
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Old 06-22-2022, 02:31 PM   #144
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Wait...it's not different this time?
It wasn't different in 1929 either. The market eventually recovered, and while there were job losses, things turned around.

Yes, it took a world war with many millions dying, 40-50 of all mortgages in foreclosure, people losing their life savings (and dying before things recovered), but in the long run wasn't different.

The reality is that none of us know what is to come. From one end of the opinion spectrum, we aren't even in recession, the economy is strong, employment is great and the market will resume its great upward trajectory soon. At the other end of the spectrum, a 1929 or worse result.

That's a pretty wide set of possibilities, and each of us has to assess where in the spectrum we will end up. In the meantime, people caught in the cross roads like Montclairbobbyb are expressing their frustration w/the "everything is fine" crowd. The one thing I know for sure, is that there are a lot of Montclairbobbyb's out there that know everything is NOT fine.
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Old 06-22-2022, 06:22 PM   #145
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I'm gonna go with this. It sounds logical, they make a good case.
Never mind they are saying what I want to hear.


Yes, a recession looks inevitable. But it may not be that bad. Here’s why




https://www.latimes.com/politics/sto...it-be-that-bad
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Old 06-22-2022, 06:45 PM   #146
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The stock market is down around 20% this year. Personally my investments are back to where they were about 18 months ago. To me it is no big deal, just a part of the normal economic cycle. For all the folks that are panicking now, I ask what did you do in 2008 when the stock market was down over 50%? If the market being down 20% is causing you to lose sleep then you have too much in the stock market. I lost sleep in 2008 but held on and after the market recovered I had learned my lesson and redid my stock allocation. Now I have a lot less in the market and much more in cash (CDs). This is a good time for folks to assess their risk tolerance.
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Old 06-22-2022, 08:52 PM   #147
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The stock market is down around 20% this year. Personally my investments are back to where they were about 18 months ago. To me it is no big deal, just a part of the normal economic cycle. For all the folks that are panicking now, I ask what did you do in 2008 when the stock market was down over 50%? If the market being down 20% is causing you to lose sleep then you have too much in the stock market. I lost sleep in 2008 but held on and after the market recovered I had learned my lesson and redid my stock allocation. Now I have a lot less in the market and much more in cash (CDs). This is a good time for folks to assess their risk tolerance.
I’m not overly concerned about the stock market or bonds for that matter.
I am far more concerned about inflation or at worst stagflation.
Not sure we’ve got enough experience in my lifetime to evaluate the dunce-tax risk
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Old Yesterday, 05:34 AM   #148
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Originally Posted by MC Rider View Post
I'm gonna go with this. It sounds logical, they make a good case.
Never mind they are saying what I want to hear.


Yes, a recession looks inevitable. But it may not be that bad. Here’s why




https://www.latimes.com/politics/sto...it-be-that-bad
I think the issue with the economy is that, even though we understand the fundamentals, we don't know how people (or gummints) will react. What should be a simple, cyclical event may turn out to be a nothing burger or a 2008 style crisis. A lot depends on what people think about it and what gummints do to "fix" it. YMMV
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Old Yesterday, 06:44 AM   #149
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First, happy Father’s Day to all you dads!

So here’s a real time housing market experience. My son and DIL are opportunist house hunting in a few golf course neighborhoods (boy loves his golf!). 2 weeks ago they found one that caught their eye. It went on the market in mid May, price dropped a couple of times (about 5%) by June. Stop there - first observation, 3 months ago offers would be pouring in 10% over sticker! He makes an offer another 3% below and they counter…. Now $15k apart on a $650k house. Son holds, part ways. Today, 9 days later, Seller comes back with $5k over son’s last offer, looks good… until son prices new debt. It will cost another $10k in points to match previous loan quote… hence, the deal did not change. Father’s Day advice…. Only if he loves the house: Option 1: buy house hoping interest rates drop over the next 5 yrs and refinance, option 2: Hold tight, ride thru downturn and wait for more motivated sellers, hopefully rates moving down.

IMHO, this is what we should expect from housing market effectively creating allot of no sales unless one party is very motivated.
Realtime update - Son and Seller just agreed to do the deal at Son's last offer less his increase in loan costs (less another $10K) to buy his loan down to his rate from 2 weeks ago. In the meantime, another house in this desired neighborhood flashed a price reduction!

Observation - Seller was motivated as they have another house they are trying to close on and arguably, perhaps, panicked a little to make sure they could get their house sold. In my son's case, he was an opportunistic buyer (best kind to be) and was willing to wait for the right deal. None the less, IMHO we are just at the beginning of this cooling off of the housing market and I suspect more price reductions to come IF a seller has some level of motivation. More motivated sellers may pop up 12 - 24 months from now if jobs are lost/finances are squeezed, otherwise, my guess is while housing prices/values may drop some from the recent highs, there will just be fewer transactions due to fewer buyer/sellers. Time will tell.
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Old Yesterday, 01:19 PM   #150
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Originally Posted by MC Rider View Post
I'm gonna go with this. It sounds logical, they make a good case.
Never mind they are saying what I want to hear.


Yes, a recession looks inevitable. But it may not be that bad. Here’s why




https://www.latimes.com/politics/sto...it-be-that-bad
His argument is logical in that if you have money, saving, and little debt the recession won't be as bad for you. His interviewee choice is almost comical... Barone has seven seasonal workers and lives modestly in an apartment on Capitol Hill. “I don’t have a car, don’t have to buy gas,” he said. “I go to the day-old bread shelf and buy my bread for half price.” Barone is more sanguine than most.

He basically has no idea like everyone else. The only thing I would add is that this time we won't have the Fed coming in to "save" the day for a while so to say that the recession won't be that bad is premature.
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