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01-09-2023, 11:10 PM
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#1061
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Apr 2017
Location: Portland
Posts: 262
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 Quote:
Originally Posted by njhowie
Happy to be done with the oils because of all the volatility over the past few years. Very happy to have gotten her out at/near the all-time highs on XOM and COP. Had heart palpitations a few times with them just three years ago.
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Your comment made me flash back to my mom's situation about 15 years ago when our investment advisor convinced my mom to sell most of her remaining Chevron stock. It was a large part of her portfolio. Had been in the family since the 1920's! Thankfully we also dumped her PG&E preferred stock (also bought in the 20's) around the same time, not long before a gas explosion in their lines killed 8 people, they were found liable for several apocalyptic forest fires, etc. Felt like we dodged a bullet on both counts, getting out while the getting was good.
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01-10-2023, 07:18 AM
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#1062
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Nov 2010
Location: Sarasota, FL & Vermont
Posts: 32,944
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sengsational
Thanks, all, for the thoughts. At the time of the original build, munis were paying the best, I think. I suppose I could check CD's and treasury rates as the munis mature, but I don't want to have to open a discussion about credit risk, no matter how small, so probably won't delve into corporate bonds for her.
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How about GSE bonds? Not full, faith and credit but usually Aaa, better than most minis and a tad more yield than CDs and USTs... but usually callable.
__________________
If something cannot endure laughter.... it cannot endure.
Patience is the art of concealing your impatience.
Slow and steady wins the race.
Retired Jan 2012 at age 56
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01-10-2023, 08:44 AM
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#1063
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Moderator
Join Date: Oct 2010
Posts: 9,787
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I might be able to say a GSE issue is a fit for the project. Next round, I'll check the rate advantage.
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01-10-2023, 07:10 PM
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#1064
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Mar 2012
Posts: 3,345
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Gundlach Says Listen to Bond Market Rather Than Fed on Rates
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gundl...220343912.html
Quote:
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My 40 plus years of experience in finance strongly recommends that investors should look at what the market says over what the Fed says
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Quote:
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He also drew attention to the inversion of the Treasury yield curve, which have successfully predicted economic slumps in the past. Inverted yield curves have always led to recession in relatively short order, he said, adding that “there is tremendous upside in many bond strategies.”
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Quote:
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Gundlach’s comments on the Fed echo remarks he made late last week on Twitter in which he said “There is no way the Fed is going to 5%. The Fed is not in control. The Bond Market is in control.”
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01-12-2023, 12:48 PM
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#1065
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Mar 2012
Posts: 3,345
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10-year treasury yield cratering again today.
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01-12-2023, 02:13 PM
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#1066
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: May 2022
Posts: 163
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I've been out of Vanguard's intermediate-term muni fund (VWIUX/VWITX) for a good while now. Does anyone think it would be a mistake to DCA back in to it?
__________________
Tentative Retirement Date: 12/31/23 (at age 53-ish)
“I already have a plan; I'm waiting for my real life to begin.” - Colin Hay
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01-12-2023, 05:20 PM
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#1067
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Moderator Emeritus
Join Date: Apr 2011
Location: The Woodlands, TX
Posts: 16,654
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MercyMe
I've been out of Vanguard's intermediate-term muni fund (VWIUX/VWITX) for a good while now. Does anyone think it would be a mistake to DCA back in to it?
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If interest rates are going to start dropping, the NAV of muni bond funds should increase. That's a good thing if you buy in while the NAV is down.
__________________
Now a widower and wondering what the rest of my life has in store for me?
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01-12-2023, 05:42 PM
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#1068
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jun 2016
Posts: 6,312
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If they go up…
NAV will drop more though.
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01-12-2023, 06:17 PM
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#1069
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Moderator Emeritus
Join Date: Apr 2011
Location: The Woodlands, TX
Posts: 16,654
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Quote:
Originally Posted by COcheesehead
If they go up…
NAV will drop more though.
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Exactly, it's a casino out there. 
__________________
Now a widower and wondering what the rest of my life has in store for me?
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01-12-2023, 08:13 PM
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#1070
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: Laurel, MD
Posts: 7,283
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I have come to understand how weak the pricing mechanism is for these thinly traded bonds when there is frequently no bid. As a holder of individual bonds, it’s easy to ignore. If I’m holding a bond fund I have one eye on the NAV and the other on my fellow fund holder and wondering if I need to race to beat him out the door.
__________________
...with no reasonable expectation for ER, I'm just here auditing the AP class.Retired 8/1/15.
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01-12-2023, 08:39 PM
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#1071
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jun 2016
Posts: 6,312
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jazz4cash
I have come to understand how weak the pricing mechanism is for these thinly traded bonds when there is frequently no bid. As a holder of individual bonds, it’s easy to ignore. If I’m holding a bond fund I have one eye on the NAV and the other on my fellow fund holder and wondering if I need to race to beat him out the door.
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Bond funds are not bonds and I think many people learned that lesson recently.
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01-18-2023, 08:07 AM
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#1072
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Mar 2012
Posts: 3,345
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10-year at 3.375% at the moment.
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01-24-2023, 07:20 AM
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#1073
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jun 2016
Posts: 6,312
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Interesting tidbit. I run a muni screen of my state specific bonds a couple times a week. I usually get about 1200 - 1500 results. Today - 700. Hmmmmm.
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01-24-2023, 08:45 AM
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#1074
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Mar 2012
Posts: 3,345
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Quote:
Originally Posted by COcheesehead
Interesting tidbit. I run a muni screen of my state specific bonds a couple times a week. I usually get about 1200 - 1500 results. Today - 700. Hmmmmm.
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My saved queries have also declined in resulting bonds over the past few weeks. Yields are way down.
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01-24-2023, 08:47 AM
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#1075
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jun 2016
Posts: 6,312
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Quote:
Originally Posted by njhowie
My saved queries have also declined in resulting bonds over the past few weeks. Yields are way down.
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The yield change has been evident. I wasn’t aware of the low inventory though. I suppose they go hand in hand. People buying.
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01-29-2023, 05:46 PM
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#1076
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Aug 2015
Posts: 140
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Quote:
Originally Posted by COcheesehead
Interesting tidbit. I run a muni screen of my state specific bonds a couple times a week. I usually get about 1200 - 1500 results. Today - 700. Hmmmmm.
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Maybe its a result of fewer new bonds due to higher rates? Haven't run my state screen in awhile I will check it out and see what I get.
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