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Old 09-15-2020, 05:31 PM   #121
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I thought there would be an attribute to indicate these are taxable. I'll have to be very careful about that
Well, I chopped off the query parameters on the above right. In the search criteria I do have "Federally Taxable" set.

But your point is valid. If you look on the New Issues screen, they do include a TE/TAX attribute for those which are tax exempt/taxable. However, on the query result screens they do not.
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Old 09-16-2020, 08:40 AM   #122
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If you like NYC Trans Authority there is certainly no shortage of issues that are attractive. I'm seeing 3-5 yr issues offered in small lots at >3% yield. These have recently dropped to BBB+. If I had funds, I'd pick up a couple. I already have two that are 14 mos and 4 yrs to maturity so I'd consider other maturities, but it's a bit unsettling to see so many issues from a single agency. A few months back it was a lot more issues from NJ which were rated lower than NYC (before the ratings for NYC dropped). I don't have the skills to analyze their financials, but I do have confidence that they will not default.
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Old 09-16-2020, 08:58 AM   #123
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As I mentioned previously my uneasiness with the term "dire" which they have thrown around, since then the messages coming out of MTA have been as bad and that is why you are seeing so many issues of all maturities across the board.

My belief is that they are trying to play out the clock for the next two months and hope a new president takes office as Albany/NYC are coming to the realization that the current president does not intend to send any further Federal funds.

In the interim, MTA has announced that they are planning cuts in system service, personnel, planned upgrades, and more. They are going in to austerity mode. There will likely be issues along the way as the TWU has to go along with whatever is proposed - and there are assured layoffs coming.

The low interest rate environment may provide some relief if they can call/refinance as the bonds reach their call dates. I know there are issues with approaching call dates between now and year end. The question is what kind of rates can they get in the market at this time based on their current condition and messaging? They may be able to take advantage of selling new bonds directly to the Federal Reserve.
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Old 09-16-2020, 09:27 AM   #124
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If you like NYC Trans Authority there is certainly no shortage of issues that are attractive. I'm seeing 3-5 yr issues offered in small lots at >3% yield. These have recently dropped to BBB+. If I had funds, I'd pick up a couple. I already have two that are 14 mos and 4 yrs to maturity so I'd consider other maturities, but it's a bit unsettling to see so many issues from a single agency. A few months back it was a lot more issues from NJ which were rated lower than NYC (before the ratings for NYC dropped). I don't have the skills to analyze their financials, but I do have confidence that they will not default.
I bought a couple of the TA bonds, but I don't intend to buy any more at this point. There's still a greater-than-normal risk to that debt, IMO.

Airport bonds look to be holding pretty steady, although I'm sure their cash flow is still severely reduced. They were among my favorite buys in the past, so I hold a handful. As I previously mentioned, I recently bought some Alaska airport debt because they handle a lot of freight.
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Old Today, 01:31 AM   #125
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Anything new from anyone?

Taxable muni market is pretty much untouchable. Risk/reward simply is not there - nothing to buy.

In the tax free, I do see some AA-rated long term zero coupons, many with insurance backing, that are catching my attention which the market is beginning to stay clear of. I'm guessing there is higher perceived risk, but my thinking is that with a longer time horizon, there is greater opportunity for things to work themselves out. I'll have to consider that position in more depth.

With my money that is looking for a (new) home (and another chunk of maturities and calls coming on 10/1), I've begun nibbling on bank common and preferred shares. Folks are avoiding the sector, and prices have come down so far that most of the community banks are ripe for takeover. Just yesterday, one that I have (symbol STND) announced it was being acquired for 70% premium (all cash deal) above current share price. Dividend yields of 5% to 8% are quite easy to find right now, and these are well-covered sustainable dividends. Look for those trading well below tangible book value with lots of insider purchasing and you've got a good safety net. Historical takeover price is 140% of tangible book value, which is exactly what STND is being acquired for. I also look at a high ratio of deposits to market cap - acquirers like to capture deposit hoards on the cheap. I did very well playing this during 2012-2017 and it looks like the same thing all over again...possibly with even greater gains possible. We have banks on sale + cheap money which leads to increased M&A activity. Anyhow, I'm not going all in on the sector, but redeploying interest payments and some amount of maturities and calls into new purchases which cannot find anywhere to go in munis. Obviously CDs and treasuries are pretty much untouchable at this time as well.

Sorry for going off-topic with the banks. Just another area which I've done extremely well with during difficult economic times where the whipping of the sector gets overdone.
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