Near All Time Highs - who's going to pull the trigger?

I think the banking system learned it's lesson. I don't worry about that anymore.
 
"The best investors in the world all have one thing in common – they have a well defined plan that they stick with through thick and thin. This plan serves as a north star regardless of where they are along the investment journey."

= Cullen Roche
 
I think everyone learned the same lesson. If your big enough & have friends in high places you can get away with anything.
 
But "zero down home loans no credit check needed" is a thing of the past.
 
Car loans & credit card debt is on the same path as sub prime house loans. Public debt has no limit.
 
Cars are easy to repo and resell, just tow 'em away.
 
Houses are easily shuttered & bulldozed or placed on the feds mythical balance sheet. Pretty soon no one will feel they have to pay for anything. I guess were gonna find out if business can exist & prosper in an environment where accountability is not as high a priority as it should be. I'm just not as optimistic as some people.
 
I guess not.

I lived right next to it. Next door neighbor sold pretty near the peak, he and his wife broke up. House was bought by a "flipper", lived there for 6 months, painted and remodeled and sold to some people that didn't appear to have jobs.

They were gone in 4 months and the "bank owned" sign went up. It was empty for a year and a half and sold for less than half the "peak price"

Yup, right next door. Not worried - :)
 
I really want to see the Dow go above 20,000.

Not that I'd pull the trigger, but I want to see it. We've been waiting so long and it just never gets very far above 18,000 before it heads back down. Time for a strong, unidirectional SURGE upwards! C'mon, Dow, I want to see those numbers soar.




Well, saying that about guaranteed that they won't.... :nonono:
 
Looks like there's strong resistance at 18000. It just touched it and then two straight days down and now about 200 points below it.

Oil must have gotten ahead of itself. It finished above $50 earlier in the week. Then dropped and today the alert I got on my iPhone said increased rig count. So the oil companies are increasing production or something?
 
explanade said:
Oil must have gotten ahead of itself. It finished above $50 earlier in the week. Then dropped and today the alert I got on my iPhone said increased rig count. So the oil companies are increasing production or something?
Click to expand...

The oil companies are selling all the oil they can just like they always have done.
 
aja8888 said:
The oil companies are selling all the oil they can just like they always have done.
Click to expand...

Is shale ramping up again? I thought they had marginal production costs of ~$35, so if oil is $50 they would restart?
 
audreyh1 said:
Charts like this make you think we're due for at least another 7 years of ~flatness in the cumulative return.

On wait - the chart ends at 2009, we're half way through 2016. So that's the 7 more years. So we could take off any year now, or not for another 9!
Click to expand...

Oh yeah, I'm totally going to make big decisions based on exactly 4 times we had surges and 3 times of extended flatness. That really isn't a lot of data. Staying the course....
 
mickeyd said:
Well it got pretty close a few days ago but pulled back.

You must not be in a buying mode.
Click to expand...

You're right. I'm in the mode of wanting to look at my portfolio size and cheer! :D :clap: :dance:


Edited to add: When I did that in my 2007 "Wheee!!" thread, those in buying mode seemed pretty glad that I did, though. So, I guess it's all good... :ROFLMAO:
 
Last edited:
big-papa said:
Oh yeah, I'm totally going to make big decisions based on exactly 4 times we had surges and 3 times of extended flatness. That really isn't a lot of data. Staying the course....
Click to expand...

Mine was tongue in cheek in case you didn't get that.....
 
Totoro said:
Is shale ramping up again? I thought they had marginal production costs of ~$35, so if oil is $50 they would restart?
Click to expand...

There are 3,500 drilled but not yet completed wells in the U.S. at the moment. To complete these wells, most will need topside equipment such as storage tanks, heaters, separators, etc. installed. Then they will need to be fracced. Produced gas will need pipeline equipment and sales points; water will need to find appropriate disposal facilities. It's not like turning on your home sprinkler system.

My gut feeling is some of these wells will come back online to replace wells that have tapered off production. Many of these crude oil wells are in the shale plays but a good number are in West Texas (Permian) and Colorado (Niobrara).

Lifting costs vary by producer and I have seen as low as $15/bbl in West Texas this year on a project I had worked on. North Dakota wells are the most expensive due primarily to transportation costs of up to $11/bbl to Philadelphia refineries where some contracts were given.

I suspect that producers will bring on wells as needed to replace existing production and that will be it for the foreseeable future. Increasing production is not cost effective when crude can be imported for less than drilling/completing in the U.S. One good thing is that well service costs are dropping like a rock due to this pullback. It cost a lot less to frac a well than it did two years ago.

When our U.S. based producers will enter into large scale drilling programs to increase production significantly is something only seen in a working crystal ball right now.
 
Tongue in cheek or not, we are going to suffer...
 
W2R said:
I really want to see the Dow go above 20,000.

Not that I'd pull the trigger, but I want to see it. We've been waiting so long and it just never gets very far above 18,000 before it heads back down. Time for a strong, unidirectional SURGE upwards! C'mon, Dow, I want to see those numbers soar.




Well, saying that about guaranteed that they won't.... :nonono:
Click to expand...

If you don't mind, could you please do some research on the proper term to use for the right Dow up effect? After all, your calls with the W.... term have been nothing short of spectacular in the opposite direction so, as Audrey suggested elsewhere, could you please work on the proper anti-W... :)
 
ejman said:
If you don't mind, could you please do some research on the proper term to use for the right Dow up effect? After all, your calls with the W.... term have been nothing short of spectacular in the opposite direction so, as Audrey suggested elsewhere, could you please work on the proper anti-W... :)
Click to expand...

:ROFLMAO: I'll get right on it! :police:

;)
 
I looked again & even with dividends reinvested the s&p 500 returned 3.2% inflation adjusted annual return. Not 5.4%. From May 2001 to May 2016. So a 30 year treasury destroyed the stock market on risk adjusted basis for that 15 year period. Not to good.
 
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