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Old 03-28-2017, 07:04 PM   #41
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there should be a large influx of profit/spend and investments as folks get refunds...and govt gets their $. I sort of judge my investment pace by the frequency of trains that roll by my home. one just passed as I type this today, I've been seeing a LOT of trains...and long heavy ones and in the past month, definitely most ever in past 3yrs I've lived here. BNSF, Canadian and UNP all run engines on this line.

I live between border states and see at least positive in rail usage. Summer came early so you'd think that would be kind to the markets...no risk of flooding that I can see this year so ag should be well for farmers. What's the negative news? Govt doesnt get anything done...that's typical.
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Old 03-29-2017, 04:44 AM   #42
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If someone held an opinion like that after March 2009 they would still be waiting.
+1. Some still are, actually.

Still, I'm partially hedging my bet. Solid cash position and proud of it. About half is in public equities, and quite a bit in CDs and such.

Heads I win, tails I don't lose much.
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Old 03-29-2017, 05:24 AM   #43
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True because over long periods of time the market will go up. However, there's no rhyme or financial reason for the market to be pegged as high as it is. What has really changed since late last year? It's just speculation at this point. All predictions (i know i know) say we're due for a market crash soon. I watched the Bogle interview on CNN a few days ago, he too basically said he's concerned because emotions are heavily driving the market. So I'd rather not plow my money in at the market's current peak even if it will eventually go back up and surpass this point in 5-10 yrs.
Bogle agreeing with Shiller? Again?

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+1. Some still are, actually.

Still, I'm partially hedging my bet. Solid cash position and proud of it. About half is in public equities, and quite a bit in CDs and such.

Heads I win, tails I don't lose much.
+1

My cash AA is getting low. Time to get some more by selling some stocks, or writing more covered calls.
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Old 03-29-2017, 05:40 AM   #44
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True because over long periods of time the market will go up. However, there's no rhyme or financial reason for the market to be pegged as high as it is. What has really changed since late last year? It's just speculation at this point. All predictions (i know i know) say we're due for a market crash soon. I watched the Bogle interview on CNN a few days ago, he too basically said he's concerned because emotions are heavily driving the market. So I'd rather not plow my money in at the market's current peak even if it will eventually go back up and surpass this point in 5-10 yrs.
I hope you realize emotions are driving you too, but in your case it's fear. Find the AA that will get you to your goal and stick with it. Don't "plow" money in, disburse to your AA and forget it.
If you follow Bogle, thats what he would say to do. Time in the market, not timing the market.
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Old 03-29-2017, 06:03 AM   #45
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Find the AA that will get you to your goal and stick with it. Don't "plow" money in, disburse to your AA and forget it.
+1.

Establishing an AA based on risk tolerance and rebalancing when it gets way out of whack is the prudent thing to do. If one can sleep at night when the portfolio loses 25% of its value then having a 50% allocation to stocks is within the risk tolerance (Stocks lost 57% back in 2007-2008).

Since I can't predict the short term market fluctuation I don't attempt to time it.
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Old 03-29-2017, 06:18 AM   #46
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Some folks forget in most, if not all cases, an AA has a bond component. When bonds dropped, my AA was flashing buy more bonds, though the news was saying more rate hikes are coming. I let math be my guide and I bought more bonds, trickling in every two weeks. Guess what's up YTD in the portfolio: bonds.
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Old 03-29-2017, 09:22 AM   #47
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Some folks forget in most, if not all cases, an AA has a bond component. When bonds dropped, my AA was flashing buy more bonds, though the news was saying more rate hikes are coming. I let math be my guide and I bought more bonds, trickling in every two weeks. Guess what's up YTD in the portfolio: bonds.
What?!?!?! You actually take your AA seriously?

COcheesehead, you are a dangerous radical!
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Old 03-29-2017, 09:27 AM   #48
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What?!?!?! You actually take your AA seriously?

COcheesehead, you are a dangerous radical!
If you read some of the threads on here, I thought there were more people on here like me, but evidence to the contrary pops up from time to time.
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Old 03-29-2017, 11:33 AM   #49
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Alright good folks, I think here's what I'll do with the $280k I have. I'll setup a DCA schedule for $15k every month. All going into VTSAX, all in my rollover IRA which I won't (be able to) touch for about 17yrs. Sound like a plan?
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Old 03-29-2017, 12:03 PM   #50
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I moved all of my kid's new SEP IRA to VTSAX. She has time.
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Old 03-30-2017, 04:48 PM   #51
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Let me know right before you sell...so I can sell mine first You have been right before in terms of market sentiment/euphoria


We'll, I don't suggest taking my suggestions or actions on face value. Do your own research. But I have lightened up on a couple of individual stocks who look like they may cut their dividends soon. Added about $100K to my cash that I don't plan to reinvest too soon.
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Old 04-03-2017, 03:30 PM   #52
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My cash out of my pension wasn't invested like I expected at Vanguard. I had three separate checks and they only invested the first one as instructed 50/50, the other two are sitting in MM. Still sitting. Keep telling myself I'm not market timing, I'm not market timing. It's got my AA off maybe 7 or 8% which isn't THAT bad. Waiting on a correction, I suppose.
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Old 04-11-2017, 04:22 AM   #53
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I lightened up on my stock portfolio by about $400k. Bought about $26k in gold bullion. Still have substantial amount in stocks, but keeping some powder dry by adding to cash. Also have put about $100k into Treasury notes.
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Old 04-11-2017, 05:36 AM   #54
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The recent pop in bonds over the last 30 days or so pushed my bond allocation up over my target, so I lighted up on those and bought more international stock which was below target. Staying the course for the long haul. No timing for me, just continuing to balance.
Fido gives you benchmarks for your investment style. Mine is a growth with income model and I've beaten the YTD, 1 year, 3 year and 5 year benchmarks. I feel comfortable with whatever the market brings.
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Old 04-11-2017, 05:58 AM   #55
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I think we're in for some interesting times. The ten year notes are indicating deflation, gold and TIPs are indicating inflation. Global corporate and sovereign debt are at all time highs and rising. The Fed has announced their intention to start unwinding all the debt they took on over the last few years. Student loan debt is over $1T with many expecting a government bailout. The strong dollar keeps other countries from buying our goods. Geopolitical conditions have gotten a bit more tenuous. Interesting times ahead.
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Old 04-11-2017, 10:50 AM   #56
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The fun part for US-ians: if the USD tumbles back down, you'll get a nice net worth lift.

I got a 20% boost in EUR purely from currency effects the last few years.
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Old 04-11-2017, 10:57 AM   #57
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I think we're in for some interesting times. The ten year notes are indicating deflation, gold and TIPs are indicating inflation. Global corporate and sovereign debt are at all time highs and rising. The Fed has announced their intention to start unwinding all the debt they took on over the last few years. Student loan debt is over $1T with many expecting a government bailout. The strong dollar keeps other countries from buying our goods. Geopolitical conditions have gotten a bit more tenuous. Interesting times ahead.
I agree, but we could have said interesting times are ahead at every point in our history.
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Old 04-11-2017, 12:36 PM   #58
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The ten year notes are indicating deflation


I see a slightly positive yield curve here:

https://www.treasury.gov/resource-ce...spx?data=yield

Could you explain? Thanks.
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Old 04-11-2017, 01:41 PM   #59
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I see a slightly positive yield curve here:



https://www.treasury.gov/resource-ce...spx?data=yield



Could you explain? Thanks.


Ten year treasury notes have remained low for years despite the printing of trillions of dollars by the Fed in an effort to kick start inflation. Notice that even as the ten year note had begun to make a slight yield rise and the Fed announced their intention to start unwinding the $4T in debt on their books from QE, yields suddenly dropped again.
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Old 04-14-2017, 04:54 AM   #60
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one of the problems with even finding a comfortable allocation is as tyson said " everyone has a plan , until they get punched in the face ".

as 2008 demonstrated losing money is losing money and those predisposed to bad investor behavior will always exhibit poor behavior no matter what the allocation .

once they taste blood and exhibit losses they will bail .
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