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03-28-2017, 07:04 PM
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#41
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Aug 2013
Location: North
Posts: 4,029
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there should be a large influx of profit/spend and investments as folks get refunds...and govt gets their $. I sort of judge my investment pace by the frequency of trains that roll by my home. one just passed as I type this today, I've been seeing a LOT of trains...and long heavy ones and in the past month, definitely most ever in past 3yrs I've lived here. BNSF, Canadian and UNP all run engines on this line.
I live between border states and see at least positive in rail usage. Summer came early so you'd think that would be kind to the markets...no risk of flooding that I can see this year so ag should be well for farmers. What's the negative news? Govt doesnt get anything done...that's typical.
__________________
Time > $$$ ~ 100% equities ~ FIRE @2031
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03-29-2017, 04:44 AM
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#42
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: May 2014
Location: Utrecht
Posts: 2,650
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DrRoy
If someone held an opinion like that after March 2009 they would still be waiting.
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+1. Some still are, actually.
Still, I'm partially hedging my bet. Solid cash position and proud of it. About half is in public equities, and quite a bit in CDs and such.
Heads I win, tails I don't lose much.
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03-29-2017, 05:24 AM
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#43
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 35,712
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dvalley
True because over long periods of time the market will go up. However, there's no rhyme or financial reason for the market to be pegged as high as it is. What has really changed since late last year? It's just speculation at this point. All predictions (i know i know) say we're due for a market crash soon. I watched the Bogle interview on CNN a few days ago, he too basically said he's concerned because emotions are heavily driving the market. So I'd rather not plow my money in at the market's current peak even if it will eventually go back up and surpass this point in 5-10 yrs.
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Bogle agreeing with Shiller? Again?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Totoro
+1. Some still are, actually.
Still, I'm partially hedging my bet. Solid cash position and proud of it. About half is in public equities, and quite a bit in CDs and such.
Heads I win, tails I don't lose much.
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+1
My cash AA is getting low. Time to get some more by selling some stocks, or writing more covered calls.
__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky (1879-1940)
"Those Who Can Make You Believe Absurdities Can Make You Commit Atrocities" - Voltaire (1694-1778)
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03-29-2017, 05:40 AM
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#44
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jun 2016
Location: Colorado
Posts: 8,971
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dvalley
True because over long periods of time the market will go up. However, there's no rhyme or financial reason for the market to be pegged as high as it is. What has really changed since late last year? It's just speculation at this point. All predictions (i know i know) say we're due for a market crash soon. I watched the Bogle interview on CNN a few days ago, he too basically said he's concerned because emotions are heavily driving the market. So I'd rather not plow my money in at the market's current peak even if it will eventually go back up and surpass this point in 5-10 yrs.
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I hope you realize emotions are driving you too, but in your case it's fear. Find the AA that will get you to your goal and stick with it. Don't "plow" money in, disburse to your AA and forget it.
If you follow Bogle, thats what he would say to do. Time in the market, not timing the market.
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03-29-2017, 06:03 AM
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#45
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 1,743
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Quote:
Originally Posted by COcheesehead
Find the AA that will get you to your goal and stick with it. Don't "plow" money in, disburse to your AA and forget it.
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+1.
Establishing an AA based on risk tolerance and rebalancing when it gets way out of whack is the prudent thing to do. If one can sleep at night when the portfolio loses 25% of its value then having a 50% allocation to stocks is within the risk tolerance (Stocks lost 57% back in 2007-2008).
Since I can't predict the short term market fluctuation I don't attempt to time it.
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03-29-2017, 06:18 AM
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#46
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jun 2016
Location: Colorado
Posts: 8,971
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Some folks forget in most, if not all cases, an AA has a bond component. When bonds dropped, my AA was flashing buy more bonds, though the news was saying more rate hikes are coming. I let math be my guide and I bought more bonds, trickling in every two weeks. Guess what's up YTD in the portfolio: bonds.
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03-29-2017, 09:22 AM
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#47
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Aug 2011
Location: West of the Mississippi
Posts: 17,169
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Quote:
Originally Posted by COcheesehead
Some folks forget in most, if not all cases, an AA has a bond component. When bonds dropped, my AA was flashing buy more bonds, though the news was saying more rate hikes are coming. I let math be my guide and I bought more bonds, trickling in every two weeks. Guess what's up YTD in the portfolio: bonds.
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What?!?!?! You actually take your AA seriously?
COcheesehead, you are a dangerous radical!
__________________
Comparison is the thief of joy
The worst decisions are usually made in times of anger and impatience.
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03-29-2017, 09:27 AM
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#48
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jun 2016
Location: Colorado
Posts: 8,971
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chuckanut
What?!?!?! You actually take your AA seriously?
COcheesehead, you are a dangerous radical!
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If you read some of the threads on here, I thought there were more people on here like me, but evidence to the contrary pops up from time to time.
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03-29-2017, 11:33 AM
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#49
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jul 2013
Posts: 1,046
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Alright good folks, I think here's what I'll do with the $280k I have. I'll setup a DCA schedule for $15k every month. All going into VTSAX, all in my rollover IRA which I won't (be able to) touch for about 17yrs. Sound like a plan?
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03-29-2017, 12:03 PM
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#50
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Mar 2014
Location: Southern Cal
Posts: 4,032
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I moved all of my kid's new SEP IRA to VTSAX. She has time.
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03-30-2017, 04:48 PM
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#51
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Mar 2013
Location: Limerick
Posts: 5,637
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kgtest
Let me know right before you sell...so I can sell mine first You have been right before in terms of market sentiment/euphoria
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We'll, I don't suggest taking my suggestions or actions on face value. Do your own research. But I have lightened up on a couple of individual stocks who look like they may cut their dividends soon. Added about $100K to my cash that I don't plan to reinvest too soon.
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04-03-2017, 03:30 PM
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#52
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Apr 2013
Location: Humble
Posts: 188
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My cash out of my pension wasn't invested like I expected at Vanguard. I had three separate checks and they only invested the first one as instructed 50/50, the other two are sitting in MM. Still sitting. Keep telling myself I'm not market timing, I'm not market timing. It's got my AA off maybe 7 or 8% which isn't THAT bad. Waiting on a correction, I suppose.
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04-11-2017, 04:22 AM
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#53
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Mar 2013
Location: Limerick
Posts: 5,637
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I lightened up on my stock portfolio by about $400k. Bought about $26k in gold bullion. Still have substantial amount in stocks, but keeping some powder dry by adding to cash. Also have put about $100k into Treasury notes.
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04-11-2017, 05:36 AM
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#54
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jun 2016
Location: Colorado
Posts: 8,971
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The recent pop in bonds over the last 30 days or so pushed my bond allocation up over my target, so I lighted up on those and bought more international stock which was below target. Staying the course for the long haul. No timing for me, just continuing to balance.
Fido gives you benchmarks for your investment style. Mine is a growth with income model and I've beaten the YTD, 1 year, 3 year and 5 year benchmarks. I feel comfortable with whatever the market brings.
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04-11-2017, 05:58 AM
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#55
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Mar 2013
Location: Limerick
Posts: 5,637
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I think we're in for some interesting times. The ten year notes are indicating deflation, gold and TIPs are indicating inflation. Global corporate and sovereign debt are at all time highs and rising. The Fed has announced their intention to start unwinding all the debt they took on over the last few years. Student loan debt is over $1T with many expecting a government bailout. The strong dollar keeps other countries from buying our goods. Geopolitical conditions have gotten a bit more tenuous. Interesting times ahead.
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04-11-2017, 10:50 AM
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#56
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: May 2014
Location: Utrecht
Posts: 2,650
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The fun part for US-ians: if the USD tumbles back down, you'll get a nice net worth lift.
I got a 20% boost in EUR purely from currency effects the last few years.
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04-11-2017, 10:57 AM
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#57
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jun 2016
Location: Colorado
Posts: 8,971
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dash man
I think we're in for some interesting times. The ten year notes are indicating deflation, gold and TIPs are indicating inflation. Global corporate and sovereign debt are at all time highs and rising. The Fed has announced their intention to start unwinding all the debt they took on over the last few years. Student loan debt is over $1T with many expecting a government bailout. The strong dollar keeps other countries from buying our goods. Geopolitical conditions have gotten a bit more tenuous. Interesting times ahead.
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I agree, but we could have said interesting times are ahead at every point in our history.
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04-11-2017, 12:36 PM
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#58
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Boise
Posts: 7,865
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dash man
The ten year notes are indicating deflation
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I see a slightly positive yield curve here:
https://www.treasury.gov/resource-ce...spx?data=yield
Could you explain? Thanks.
__________________
"At times the world can seem an unfriendly and sinister place, but believe us when we say there is much more good in it than bad. All you have to do is look hard enough, and what might seem to be a series of unfortunate events, may in fact be the first steps of a journey." Violet Baudelaire.
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04-11-2017, 01:41 PM
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#59
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Mar 2013
Location: Limerick
Posts: 5,637
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SecondCor521
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Ten year treasury notes have remained low for years despite the printing of trillions of dollars by the Fed in an effort to kick start inflation. Notice that even as the ten year note had begun to make a slight yield rise and the Fed announced their intention to start unwinding the $4T in debt on their books from QE, yields suddenly dropped again.
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04-14-2017, 04:54 AM
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#60
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 6,115
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one of the problems with even finding a comfortable allocation is as tyson said " everyone has a plan , until they get punched in the face ".
as 2008 demonstrated losing money is losing money and those predisposed to bad investor behavior will always exhibit poor behavior no matter what the allocation .
once they taste blood and exhibit losses they will bail .
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