Not loving the up and up of the markets

[Dash man]

Let me know right before you sell...so I can sell mine first You have been right before in terms of market sentiment/euphoria

We'll, I don't suggest taking my suggestions or actions on face value. Do your own research. But I have lightened up on a couple of individual stocks who look like they may cut their dividends soon. Added about $100K to my cash that I don't plan to reinvest too soon.

 

[Turn_the_Page]

My cash out of my pension wasn't invested like I expected at Vanguard. I had three separate checks and they only invested the first one as instructed 50/50, the other two are sitting in MM. Still sitting. Keep telling myself I'm not market timing, I'm not market timing. It's got my AA off maybe 7 or 8% which isn't THAT bad. Waiting on a correction, I suppose.

 

[Dash man]

I lightened up on my stock portfolio by about $400k. Bought about $26k in gold bullion. Still have substantial amount in stocks, but keeping some powder dry by adding to cash. Also have put about $100k into Treasury notes.

 

[COcheesehead]

The recent pop in bonds over the last 30 days or so pushed my bond allocation up over my target, so I lighted up on those and bought more international stock which was below target. Staying the course for the long haul. No timing for me, just continuing to balance.
Fido gives you benchmarks for your investment style. Mine is a growth with income model and I've beaten the YTD, 1 year, 3 year and 5 year benchmarks. I feel comfortable with whatever the market brings.

 

[Dash man]

I think we're in for some interesting times. The ten year notes are indicating deflation, gold and TIPs are indicating inflation. Global corporate and sovereign debt are at all time highs and rising. The Fed has announced their intention to start unwinding all the debt they took on over the last few years. Student loan debt is over $1T with many expecting a government bailout. The strong dollar keeps other countries from buying our goods. Geopolitical conditions have gotten a bit more tenuous. Interesting times ahead.

 

[Totoro]

The fun part for US-ians: if the USD tumbles back down, you'll get a nice net worth lift.

I got a 20% boost in EUR purely from currency effects the last few years.

 

[COcheesehead]

I think we're in for some interesting times. The ten year notes are indicating deflation, gold and TIPs are indicating inflation. Global corporate and sovereign debt are at all time highs and rising. The Fed has announced their intention to start unwinding all the debt they took on over the last few years. Student loan debt is over $1T with many expecting a government bailout. The strong dollar keeps other countries from buying our goods. Geopolitical conditions have gotten a bit more tenuous. Interesting times ahead.

I agree, but we could have said interesting times are ahead at every point in our history.

 

[SecondCor521]

The ten year notes are indicating deflation

I see a slightly positive yield curve here:

https://www.treasury.gov/resource-c...interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yield

Could you explain? Thanks.

 

[Dash man]

I see a slightly positive yield curve here:



https://www.treasury.gov/resource-c...interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yield



Could you explain? Thanks.

Ten year treasury notes have remained low for years despite the printing of trillions of dollars by the Fed in an effort to kick start inflation. Notice that even as the ten year note had begun to make a slight yield rise and the Fed announced their intention to start unwinding the $4T in debt on their books from QE, yields suddenly dropped again.

 

[mathjak107]

one of the problems with even finding a comfortable allocation is as tyson said " everyone has a plan , until they get punched in the face ".

as 2008 demonstrated losing money is losing money and those predisposed to bad investor behavior will always exhibit poor behavior no matter what the allocation .

once they taste blood and exhibit losses they will bail .

 

[Dash man]

one of the problems with even finding a comfortable allocation is as tyson said " everyone has a plan , until they get punched in the face ".

as 2008 demonstrated losing money is losing money and those predisposed to bad investor behavior will always exhibit poor behavior no matter what the allocation .

once they taste blood and exhibit losses they will bail .

Bad investor behavior is like Monday morning quarterbacking. The behavior is bad if they sold low and the market bounces back. They're a genius if the market continued to fall.
I recently sold a half million in stocks in an IRA and the market has dropped ever since, but that doesn't make me a genius. No one can predict what any market will do in the future. I personally still have plenty invested in stocks, but have increased my cash position and bought another $26k in gold bullion which has gone up over $50/ounce since my purchase. My reasons for reducing my equity exposure range from corporate debt loads and sovereign debt loads to geopolitical events. I don't buy or sell based on history of the markets, but what I believe the future holds. You can call it market timing if you wish, but I don't believe our future will replicate the past. I do believe we are in for a major shock within a few years if not sooner. 2008 might look like the good old days. So when I sense my stocks are overvalued and things are shaky, I take some off the table. Maybe I'll buy back in if the signs I see settle down.

 

[mathjak107]

as peter lynch said " more money has been lost anticipating and preparing for the next downturn than the downturns themselves " recovery in a fairly short period of time has become pretty much the deal .

betting this time will be different has always been a sucker bet in the longer term .

everyone of us likely tried to beat the market at it's own game at one time or another . we got lucky too and got out and even back in but you can bet the next time we tried it we gave back anything we thought we gained

 

[Dash man]

Peter Lynch invested in companies, not the market. Big difference in his style vs what many individual investors do with mutual funds. He also bailed when fundamentals of a company changed. He watched debt levels of his investments. He didn't ride it out hoping for a turnaround. I invest in company stocks, not funds.

 

[COcheesehead]

Of course there will be a "shock to the system". There always are. In my investment lifetime, I have lived through 1987, 1991, 1999, 2008 and countless corrections in between. So my response is "so what". My AA is Firecalc tested, RetirePlan tested, Fido's RPM tested. If you are pulling money out now, you don't trust the long term success of your AA or you are letting the news get to you or your goals have changed and maybe you need a permanently more conservation AA.

 

[Dash man]

Of course there will be a "shock to the system". There always are. In my investment lifetime, I have lived through 1987, 1991, 1999, 2008 and countless corrections in between. So my response is "so what". My AA is Firecalc tested, RetirePlan tested, Fido's RPM tested. If you are pulling money out now, you don't trust the long term success of your AA or you are letting the news get to you or your goals have changed and maybe you need a permanently more conservation AA.

Thanks for the financial advice, but I really don't need it. I still have plenty in strong company stocks and enough cash for ten years of living expenses in cash. Income from a pension, some T Bills and a rental property help too. I also keep a small portion of my assets in gold and silver. But I don't believe in a hard fixed asset allocation because I want to be able to adjust as I see fit based on the economic climate and geopolitical events. Debt is a problem in the world and we can't sustain the growth globally. There is a battle between deflation and inflation affecting monetary markets and global currency stability. I avoid mutual funds because they probably can't meet the cash needed for redemptions when there is a crash. To each their own.

 

[dvalley]

I agree Dashman - especially if you have enough assets then diversifying them across various asset classes is a fantastic thing like you've done including cash! I'm personally no where near having enough so I need my money to grow as quickly as possible and as high as possible and for that the stock market is the only asset class that can make it happen. So for me it was a bit of a loss when I pulled my money out of the market just before the elections -though for the sole purpose of consolidating assets from various brokerages into vanguard but market timing was involved.

 

[COcheesehead]

Thanks for the financial advice, but I really don't need it. I still have plenty in strong company stocks and enough cash for ten years of living expenses in cash. Income from a pension, some T Bills and a rental property help too. I also keep a small portion of my assets in gold and silver. But I don't believe in a hard fixed asset allocation because I want to be able to adjust as I see fit based on the economic climate and geopolitical events. Debt is a problem in the world and we can't sustain the growth globally. There is a battle between deflation and inflation affecting monetary markets and global currency stability. I avoid mutual funds because they probably can't meet the cash needed for redemptions when there is a crash. To each their own.

I have a commercial building, two businesses, etc, etc, but I was referring to my portfolio AA. I rebalance and let it ride. What you're doing is too much tied to emotions and news. That is too hard to quantify. The math of rebalancing is just so black and white. No fuss, no muss. To each his own as you say.

 

[sengsational]

Changing one's asset allocation based on fundamentals seems like a reasonable approach if there is really a direct linkage between the fundamentals and the allocation. If there's emotion in there, and so more than one AA can result from the same collection fundamental measures, then maybe not so reasonable.

 

[Dash man]

I have a commercial building, two businesses, etc, etc, but I was referring to my portfolio AA. I rebalance and let it ride. What you're doing is too much tied to emotions and news. That is too hard to quantify. The math of rebalancing is just so black and white. No fuss, no muss. To each his own as you say.

Your assumption of emotion and specific news events in my decisions is incorrect. However, evaluating global events, trends and making rational decisions based on information available seems like a good approach to me and has served me well. Specific research on companies also has served me well. Letting it ride, as you say, I believe is the name of a casino game.

 

[COcheesehead]

Your assumption of emotion and specific news events in my decisions is incorrect. However, evaluating global events, trends and making rational decisions based on information available seems like a good approach to me and has served me well. Specific research on companies also has served me well. Letting it ride, as you say, I believe is the name of a casino game.

Quotes like " I don't buy or sell based on history of the markets, but what I believe the future holds." is very emotion based. An AA is just numbers on a page that you can compare. I think you are a closet timer. C'mon admit it so we can move on to something more interesting to talk about. This is getting boring.

 

[dvalley]

Let's just focus on the topic of the thread not the folks in the thread, don't want this getting locked up

 

[COcheesehead]

Let's just focus on the topic of the thread not the folks in the thread, don't want this getting locked up

Agreed.

 

[Dash man]

Quotes like " I don't buy or sell based on history of the markets, but what I believe the future holds." is very emotion based. An AA is just numbers on a page that you can compare. I think you are a closet timer. C'mon admit it so we can move on to something more interesting to talk about. This is getting boring.

Different people have different approaches to reach success. Mine has worked for me and I hope yours works for you. No need to show intolerance for other approaches to investing.

 

[COcheesehead]

Different people have different approaches to reach success. Mine has worked for me and I hope yours works for you. No need to show intolerance for other approaches to investing.

Let's just drop it and let the thread move on please.

 

[W2R]

This post is not directed at anyone in particular, but I post it now and then in the hopes that someone might find it helpful. I have been on this forum for over ten years, and my observations are that just about all members get annoyed with another member at some time or other. It's human nature and it is not a poor reflection on anybody, IMO.

For the convenience of any of our much valued members who become annoyed with another member, here are directions for using our handy-dandy "ignore" feature. Here's how it works:

1) Click on "User CP" in the horizontal bar above.
2) On the left, under "Settings and Options", click on "Edit Ignore List".
3) In the box that says "Add a member to your list", type the name of the member you wish to ignore.
4) Hit the "OKAY" button.

That's all that is required. Now you will not see posts by the person you ignored.