October 10th Market Plunge

Is there a Stock Addict Anonymous group I can attend? :)
 
Is there a Stock Addict Anonymous group I can attend? :)

Not to mention pro and college football. Trying to stay strong(not watch) till the play offs.

Now on that other matter - I went full auto 2006 via Target Retirement where those trusty Vanguard computers buy on dips - aka re - balance daily.

:blush: I do miss the pastry and coffee from the meetings though. Stock club complete with guest speaker, book recommendations and all kinds of guesses where Mr Market was going.

heh heh heh - Started investing 1966. 25 years of ER. :D :cool:
 
On it's way up, buy now before the rush!
 
i took a couple of ( buying AND selling ) opportunities to DCA .
it will not tilt my portfolio much ( if i guessed correctly )

was it a blip or a prelude to a much bigger move ?

now that is the question , if you can answer that correctly more than 50% of the time you have a loverly career path opening for you ( most only pick two or three big moves right and earn a big reputation )

regarding DCA , i suggest selectively targeting stocks ( or funds ) when chasing dips like this ( not everything will drop by the same amount , and even if they did not every slide is a good opportunity )

for instance i bought into an Asian focused ETF as they are under more stress currently but also have more growth potential

i also bought more JHG ( averaging down a bit more )
 
My crystal ball thinks this is then big one. Regardless, my plan is to wait til Jan to rebalance. I'm hoping to get this market crash thing done with. Kind of like waiting for that big volcano in the news several weeks back to blow its top :popcorn:.


i am thinking this will only be a normal correction about 20% or less before Xmas and a pre-Xmas rally ( with a bigger drop next year )

but i have been wrong many times before , so formulate plans for what is ACTUALLY happening now , at set 'target prices ' if the target price is hit i buy ( or sell ) some if it doesn't well that is how it goes ( i can wait )

obviously if it is a slow slide ( or rise ) i will creep that target price a few extra cents in my favor every so often , until the contract is filled

i just grab the opportunities as fate ( and cash reserves ) permit

( i am still trying to guarantee the Fi part of my FIRE )
 
All indicators are good , so why did the market drop . People working company profits up , interest rates jumped . Watch what happens by the end of the year . China will sign a trade agreement , the fed will realize that inflation is not bad and announce they will slow down interest rates and the market will have a year end rally.
 
This Fed series says we are not headed into recession territory yet (grey bands are recession periods). Most likely good times ahead for several months.

Capture.jpg
 
All indicators are good , so why did the market drop . People working company profits up , interest rates jumped . Watch what happens by the end of the year . China will sign a trade agreement , the fed will realize that inflation is not bad and announce they will slow down interest rates and the market will have a year end rally.

Most likely that’s what is going to happen.

This Fed series says we are not headed into recession territory yet (grey bands are recession periods). Most likely good times ahead for several months.

Capture.jpg

Music to my ears (would it not be to someone?).

Else, if the market goes down, I will have to think about buying more, and I'd rather not. :D
 
When we had the bump in late January-early February 2018 I did some soul searching and decided I was not comfortable with my AA. It wasn't predicated on a belief that the market was about to crash, but after assessing my needs, and what would happen if the market continued to climb, or stay put, or fall back, I found an AA that seemed to better suit my situation, and my personal risk tolerance.

i guess I hit the sweet spot, because this isn't bothering me.

Do you mind sharing what your AA was and how you have it invested now?
 
Either you all have nerves of steel or there is some whistling in the graveyard going on. I don't like it when $40k vanishes in a week. My morning mood is not improved when I go to Discover online bank to check on a fund transfer and see this message:
Account service is limited at this time.
Some of our website features are currently unavailable.

Any previously scheduled transactions, bill payments, and loan payments will process as normal
Your balance and account history has been updated as of 10/11/2018
You can view 45 days of account history
New funds transfers and loan payments cannot be scheduled
We appreciate your patience and regret any inconvenience.

Makes a big ol' chicken man want to start stuffing the mattress rather than counting on digital cash representations.

I have nerves of steel. If it moves toward 18,000 on the Dow I’ll think differently. But why sell at a low?
 
This is how I look at it - I retired Feb 1, 2014. At that time the S&P 500 was about 1800, now it is about 2700 for a 50% increase. Our total assets (liquid, not house) have gone up 25% in that period (we paid off our mortgage since then). So I am very happy with the market and have no complaints.
 
I'm about 75% stocks and haven't lost anything in the last two days. I've still got every share I had on Tuesday, I have exactly the same ownership % in thousands of US and foreign companies. :)


This is also my conclusion. Sure psychologically it feels better when the market is less volatile and on a steady upward path, but until I sell and have the value that day is when my profit/loss is realized.
 
I'm a total return investor, and my income is based on my end of year retirement value.

So I look at my total retirement portfolio and see it in terms of gains or losses compared to the beginning of the year, and also how much next year's income is rising or falling. Of course the magic number is whatever the portfolio is on Dec 31, it can be going haywire in the interim without having an impact.

But it doesn't particularly bother me. I've already been through the spectacular rollercoasters, I have a relatively conservative AA in anticipation of future drops - when being completely unknown. I just rebalance each year, and live with the variable income.
 
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If this stuff scares you too much you shouldn't be in the market.
 
Well, accurately speaking, there are as many sellers as buyers. But the price they agree on is now lower. :)

Or the sellers are more motivated (to borrow from real estate parlance), and the buyers are more reluctant and need more encouragement.
 
If this stuff scares you too much you shouldn't be in the market.

I am not scared. I am excited. I ask myself how I can profit.

"Wherever there is danger, there lurks opportunity; whenever there is opportunity, there lurks danger. The two are inseparable. They go together." -- Earl Nightingale
 
I am not scared. I am excited. I ask myself how I can profit.

"Wherever there is danger, there lurks opportunity; whenever there is opportunity, there lurks danger. The two are inseparable. They go together." -- Earl Nightingale

I’m not excited yet. I’m vaguely interested.

If the S&P500 gets back to 2000, I’ll be excited ( and nauseous ). My best investments always seem to be when the market makes me want to throw up. 😀
 
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