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View Poll Results: Dow , S and P at END of 2017
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Higher than end of 2016
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23 |
47.92% |
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Lower than 2016
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6 |
12.50% |
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Doesn't mater, I'l still have enough $ to buy Polygrip for my Dentures
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19 |
39.58% |
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Poll:Dow , S and P , predictions for end of 2017
12-22-2016, 09:52 AM
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#1
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 2,223
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Poll:Dow , S and P , predictions for end of 2017
Your guesses for next year.
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12-22-2016, 10:24 AM
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#2
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Nov 2016
Posts: 9,526
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I have no scientific method to my vote it will be high then the end of 2016. If it is lower I will survive the dips. I will not have gained or lost anything until I sell and I have no intentions of selling in the near future.
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12-22-2016, 10:39 AM
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#3
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Administrator
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: N. Yorkshire
Posts: 34,131
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 Quote:
Originally Posted by Lakewood90712
Your guesses for next year.
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42
__________________
Retired in Jan, 2010 at 55, moved to England in May 2016
Enough private pension and SS income to cover all needs
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12-22-2016, 12:10 PM
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#4
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Moderator
Join Date: Feb 2010
Location: Flyover country
Posts: 25,362
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan
42
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+1
No, wait. That would be 43. This is tougher than it looked!
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12-22-2016, 12:13 PM
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#5
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: Alberta/Ontario/ Arizona
Posts: 3,393
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Why would anyone try to predict the unknowable?
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12-22-2016, 12:34 PM
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#6
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: Collin County, TX
Posts: 9,296
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__________________
There's no need to complicate, our time is short..
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12-22-2016, 12:53 PM
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#7
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 35,712
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I like this poll which only asks for the direction, up or down. This is hard enough by itself.
In the past, polls asked for a number, which was like playing a number on the roulette. Just Red or Black please.
__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky (1879-1940)
"Those Who Can Make You Believe Absurdities Can Make You Commit Atrocities" - Voltaire (1694-1778)
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12-22-2016, 01:16 PM
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#8
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Dec 2015
Location: Michigan
Posts: 5,003
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Higher or lower than now.
__________________
"The mountains are calling, and I must go." John Muir
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12-22-2016, 01:37 PM
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#9
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Feb 2014
Location: Williston, FL
Posts: 3,925
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We have had quite a few up years, we are due for a down year. Plus, I just retired.
OTOH, it should be a great year for business.
__________________
FIRE no later than 7/5/2016 at 56 (done), securing '16 401K match (done), getting '15 401K match (done), LTI Bonus (done), Perf bonus (done), maxing out 401K (done), picking up 1,000 hours to get another year of pension (done), July 1st benefits (vacation day, healthcare) (done), July 4th holiday. 0 days left. (done) OFFICIALLY RETIRED 7/5/2016!!
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12-22-2016, 01:40 PM
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#10
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Administrator
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: N. Yorkshire
Posts: 34,131
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Market up or down is a bit like flipping a coin. Even if Heads has come up 9 times in a row, the chance for Heads next time is still 50/50.
__________________
Retired in Jan, 2010 at 55, moved to England in May 2016
Enough private pension and SS income to cover all needs
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12-22-2016, 02:36 PM
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#11
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 35,712
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The market tends to be up more often than down. In 189 years between 1825 and 2013, the market was up 134 years, and down 55 years. So, it was up 71% of the time. The chance for up is higher than 2x the chance for down. See: http://basehitinvesting.com/the-stoc...ast-200-years/.
So, I voted for up because that direction is historically more likely, although it may not be up very much.
About the feeling that several up years in a row may increase the odds of a down year, I guess if the P/E gets higher and higher, at some point the bubble is going to bust. Are we there yet? Probably not.
The problem is still that it takes many years to inflate up the bubble, then for it to pop in an instant. Predicting the exact moment when that balloon is going to burst is difficult. There are also all kinds of events that can happen to trigger it (or not): terrorism, political events, hurricanes and earthquakes, etc...
__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky (1879-1940)
"Those Who Can Make You Believe Absurdities Can Make You Commit Atrocities" - Voltaire (1694-1778)
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12-22-2016, 04:39 PM
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#12
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 17,244
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Quote:
Originally Posted by braumeister
+1
No, wait. That would be 43. This is tougher than it looked!
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Nope... the super computer took over 7 million years to figure it out.... from wiki...
The number 42 is, in The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy by Douglas Adams, the "Answer to the Ultimate Question of Life, the Universe, and Everything", calculated by an enormous supercomputer named Deep Thought over a period of 7.5 million years. Unfortunately, no one knows what the question is.
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12-22-2016, 04:41 PM
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#13
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 540
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What is a "mater"?
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12-22-2016, 05:46 PM
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#14
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 17,244
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Earl E Retyre
What is a "mater"?
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LOL... reading so fast did not notice the missing T....
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12-23-2016, 04:16 AM
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#15
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Moderator Emeritus
Join Date: May 2007
Posts: 12,901
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Our expenses are set to decrease next year due to much lower housing expenses, so even if the market drops we'll be OK.
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12-23-2016, 05:49 AM
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#16
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Administrator
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Chicagoland
Posts: 40,727
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Earl E Retyre
What is a "mater"?
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She's married to "Pater" 
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12-23-2016, 08:40 PM
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#17
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: May 2014
Location: Lakewood
Posts: 920
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I voted down. If it goes up, then I'm wrong but will be richer. If it goes down, at least I'll be right.
__________________
Why be normal when you can be yourself?
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12-23-2016, 09:13 PM
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#18
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Apr 2016
Location: Ex-Cali
Posts: 1,245
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I predict it will be bigly!
__________________
______________________
The plan was September 1, 2022 and I am 95% there. Still working a few hours a week at the real job.
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