Poll: Is the flat market "good times" or "bad times"

[papadad111]

Discussion continues on market being flat for last 2 years. Perhaps mods can add this poll in .

Poll: The flat market at 2000 on SP500, first hit in July 2014 continues. Nearing 2 years of essentially flat market. Do you consider the flat market "good times"... The market could have fallen. Or "bad times"...will we ever get out of neutral....

 

[NW-Bound]

How about "Flat is good, and it is likely to stay this way for a few more years"?

 

[Major Tom]

How about "Flat is flat and although we can take an educated guess, we don't know what is coming"?

 

[Gone4Good]

If you believe in mean reversion then flat after several years of ~15% compound annual gains has to be good because we can revert in only two ways: either slow and steady or fast and painful.

 

[Mulligan]

Poll: Is the flat market "good times" or "bad times"

The market has been perfect the last 2 years... Making very good money in preferred stocks due to the low interest money environment. Like shooting fish in a barrel. But as Gone said its all relative. It wasnt like I rode the stock market successfully previous 5 years then flipped to preferreds. I never had much in stock market prior, mostly CDs and IBonds.


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[MichaelB]

For us, what defines good times or bad times is family. We have everything we need and everyone is healthy, so times are good.

 

[target2019]

Flat is good for us. Still accumulating.

A flat market may give way to a downtrend or uptrend. Interesting charts on this page:

Schwab Sector Views: Tech Hits Some Turbulence, But Will It Last?

Small business confidence index is trending down. I believe many on this forum are affected by, or aware of, this trend.
Even more important, family is doing fine. A niece just married. We're going overseas. Confidence is high enough that we spent $50K on a car and two HVAC systems.

 

[NYEXPAT]

It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness, it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity, it was the season of Light, it was the season of Darkness, it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair, we had everything before us, we had nothing before us, we were all going direct to Heaven, we were all going direct the other way – in short, the period was so far like the present period, that some of its noisiest authorities insisted on its being received, for good or for evil, in the superlative degree of comparison only.- Charles Dickens

 

[Fedup]

I have no idea but hoping it's going lower.

 

[audreyh1]

It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness, it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity, it was the season of Light, it was the season of Darkness, it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair, we had everything before us, we had nothing before us, we were all going direct to Heaven, we were all going direct the other way – in short, the period was so far like the present period, that some of its noisiest authorities insisted on its being received, for good or for evil, in the superlative degree of comparison only.- Charles Dickens

Loved that book! And what a start to a story!

A Tale of Two Cities - my first exposure to the French Revolution. Wow - Dickens did a historical work*! I think the rest were all contemporary (Victorian).

*there was one other, but it wasn't popular enough to get much exposure.

 

[audreyh1]

How about "Flat is flat and although we can take an educated guess, we don't know what is coming"?

That would be me.

 

[Lsbcal]

I did not answer the poll because the market has NOT BEEN FLAT FOR 2 YEARS. Here is M* chart for the SP500 fund (VFIAX) for the last 2 years:

Does this look flat to anyone?

 

[Fedup]

You must be an enginerds or Aspergers as papa suggested in another thread.

 

[Gone4Good]

It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness, it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity, it was the season of Light, it was the season of Darkness, it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair, we had everything before us, we had nothing before us, we were all going direct to Heaven, we were all going direct the other way – in short, the period was so far like the present period, that some of its noisiest authorities insisted on its being received, for good or for evil, in the superlative degree of comparison only.- Charles Dickens

You know how that ends, right?

It is a far, far better thing that I do than I have ever done. A far, far better resting place that I go to than I've ever known.

 

[RetireAge50]

Neither good nor bad. A flat market to me means it will be going up in the future or it went too high in the past. Either way all part of the plan.

 

[target2019]

A simple trend line drawn with Excel shows up trend. Of course you could use other trend calcs and show something else. I used month end data for VFINX.

Myself, I was believing it was flatish.

 

[nash031]

In the view that the market isn't as high as it will ever ever ever be, flat is good because I'm buying shares of XYZ for less than they will sell for in 20 years.

 

[DrRoy]

A trading range market (not exactly flat) means that the signs for future corporate earnings growth are evenly balanced by signs that future earnings will fall. We don't know if the range will break to the upside or the downside. That will be determined by as yet unknown future economic activity and earnings.

 

[dixonge]

Markets are neither good nor bad, no matter how they perform. They simply are. Your label depends on your perception.

 

[Fedup]

Now we are getting more philosophical. Negative is bad for retirement. Positive is good for retirement.

 

[NW-Bound]

Being philosophical is good. It lets me be stoic when bad things happen. It prevents me from jumping up and down and acting silly if good things come.

I did not vote for the reason I did not find the option that I like, as explained earlier.

 

[papadad111]

It's all relative. What's are your broad market gains or losses since July 2014 excluding new money ?

 

[anethum]

Speaking of flat, improbable research showed that Kansas is considerably flatter than a pancake:

Improbable Research

 

[NYEXPAT]

You know how that ends, right?

It is a far, far better thing that I do than I have ever done. A far, far better resting place that I go to than I've ever known.

No, That is a far as I got before my dog chewed up my "cliff notes". If I recall correctly, I failed the English exam too. But, then again I failed most exams in H.S. Got into Uni because my GC made a deal with the Uni to bring them some Olympic quality gymnasts. Dropped out of Uni, once the draft was over to seek my fortune. Retired at 33/34 and went back to finish up my bizness degree at 40. Graduated at the top of the class a few years later.

 

[Mulligan]

No, That is a far as I got before my dog chewed up my "cliff notes". If I recall correctly, I failed the English exam too. But, then again I failed most exams in H.S. Got into Uni because my GC made a deal with the Uni to bring them some Olympic quality gymnasts. Dropped out of Uni, once the draft was over to seek my fortune. Retired at 33/34 and went back to finish up my bizness degree at 40. Graduated at the top of the class a few years later.

Your almost as bad as me. I only know of that quote from a Star Trek motion picture.... I hated books and especially ones that were shoved down me. I prefer the Reagan philosophy of "all info on one page". I had a World Lit class in which the college professor seemed to be a tad lazy and just repeated same exams year after year and a sorority house kept a file of them. I would "study" just long enough to remember the sequence of the M/C answers and would collect my A. Finals night I went over to get the answers and that was when I found out they did not have a copy as he kept all finals... Needless to say I had 3 A's and an F on my 4 exams and received a C for the course.


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