Recession… What Recession?

[RetiredAt49]

The latest GDP report was just released and it’s higher than most analysts expected at 2.4%! Additionally the DOW is on track to beat the longest winning streak since 1897 (not a typo) at 14 consecutive winning days!

The pre market is way up and stocks are set to rise again today so hang on everyone! Those of us with 100% equities (or at least a high stock allocation) are loving it - if you couldn’t tell from my excitement [emoji1]

[VanWinkle]

Be careful, I found Giddiness leads to declines in my experience. shush....

Best to you,

VW

[audreyh1]

Yeah, I haven’t seen any evidence of this expected recession either.

[harllee]

Don't jinx us!!

[FREE866]

I am loving this, but yeah a post like this could def mean a short term top but who knows and who cares, I'm not in this for the short term!


remember all the panic last summer? guys like Jamie Dimon, who I actually really like, calling for an "economic hurricane", actually that might have been taken out of context because thats what the media does for shock headlines. Then that other know it all--Gundlach, in October, all panicky.....

[aja8888]

Quote:

Originally Posted by RetiredAt49 The latest GDP report was just released and it’s higher than most analysts expected at 2.4%! Additionally the DOW is on track to beat the longest winning streak since 1897 (not a typo) at 14 consecutive winning days! The pre market is way up and stocks are set to rise again today so hang on everyone! Those of us with 100% equities (or at least a high stock allocation) are loving it - if you couldn’t tell from my excitement [emoji1]

It's amazing what $5 Trillion dollars of free money dropped on the US economy will do along with out of control government spending. Much of the GDP number is made up of government spending!

Gotta love it. If we can get another trillion or so put into the economy, we will be even better off! What can go wrong here?

[RetiredAt49]

Quote:

Originally Posted by aja8888 It's amazing what $5 Trillion dollars of free money dropped on the US economy will do along with out of control government spending. Much of the GDP number is made up of government spending! Gotta love it. If we can get another trillion or so put into the economy, we will be even better off! What can go wrong here?

Another perspective - https://youtu.be/azRTCiHwW_E

YMMV

[FREE866]

Quote:

Originally Posted by RetiredAt49 Another perspective - https://youtu.be/azRTCiHwW_E YMMV

And a very sensible one.

[Marc]

If no recession then the un-inverting of the yield curve will be very painful. I don't think anyone is prepared for 10 year above 5%.

[audreyh1]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Marc If no recession then the un-inverting of the yield curve will be very painful. I don't think anyone is prepared for 10 year above 5%.

That could cause a recession.

[Montecfo]

To my eye it appears to still be coming.

Consumer spending fell sharply. It will take a big hit when student loan repayments begin in the next couple of months. 3rd straight quarter of earnings declines underway. So economic slowdown is here. And further goosing of government spending seems to not be in the cards.

[FREE866]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Montecfo To my eye it appears to still be coming. Consumer spending fell sharply. It will take a big hit when student loan repayments begin in the next couple of months. 3rd straight quarter of earnings declines underway. So economic slowdown is here. And further goosing of government spending seems to not be in the cards.

Peel back the curtain and you’ll see the median student loan is like 20K, less than a car loan. The people that owe big 6 figure balances are mostly high income earners that can support that.
In terms of earnings that’s the past and markets look ahead. In terms of consumer spending down that isn’t new news. Again, markets tend to look
Ahead. So basically I disagree with everything you said lol
That’s okay. Off to the pool. Scorching hot out!

[NW-Bound]

I cannot figure this out. Economists are also scratching their head. The Federal Reserve too.

I keep the same investment style nevertheless.

Things that go up, I write OTM covered calls, or close out OTM covered puts on them.

Things that go down, I write OTM covered puts, or close out OTM covered calls.

Ka ching, ka ching... $112K in option premium YTD, on top of regular stock gains. I did not trade during my recent long European trip, else would make more.

[Qs Laptop]

Of course there is a recession coming...but when? Barring some crazy event--like Covid, war, energy supply problems--I don't see it happening in 2023.

I'm starting to believe the Fed can engineer a soft landing, that is, get inflation back down to the target of 2% and not incur a recession.

[W2R]

I'm so thrilled with the market, and trying hard not to say a word! Especially that "Wh..." word.

It's about time that the market got a little more encouraging. I was wondering if we'd ever see past heights again.

[Dtail]

Quote:

Originally Posted by FREE866 I am loving this, but yeah a post like this could def mean a short term top but who knows and who cares, I'm not in this for the short term! remember all the panic last summer? guys like Jamie Dimon, who I actually really like, calling for an "economic hurricane", actually that might have been taken out of context because thats what the media does for shock headlines. Then that other know it all--Gundlach, in October, all panicky.....

Yup Dimon and Gundlach are usually more wrong than right and that is with a built in 50% chance of being correct.
No one knows nuthin.

[Dtail]

Quote:

Originally Posted by aja8888 It's amazing what $5 Trillion dollars of free money dropped on the US economy will do along with out of control government spending. Much of the GDP number is made up of government spending! Gotta love it. If we can get another trillion or so put into the economy, we will be even better off! What can go wrong here?

Yup, also amazing what massive tax cuts a few years ago for the rich can also do.

[FiveDriver]

Quote:

Originally Posted by aja8888 It's amazing what $5 Trillion dollars of free money dropped on the US economy will do along with out of control government spending. Much of the GDP number is made up of government spending! Gotta love it. If we can get another trillion or so put into the economy, we will be even better off! What can go wrong here?

If you're worried abut the $1.5 Trillion in the recent Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, don't fret none.

The EU spends about 5% of their GDP on Infrastructure -- every year. China spends 8%.

The US has some catching up to do, since the prior 4 years never passed a single Infrastructure Bill....despite declaring several 'Infrastructure Weeks' along the way.

[11522914]

Quote:

Originally Posted by RetiredAt49 The latest GDP report was just released and it’s higher than most analysts expected at 2.4%! Additionally the DOW is on track to beat the longest winning streak since 1897 (not a typo) at 14 consecutive winning days! The pre market is way up and stocks are set to rise again today so hang on everyone! Those of us with 100% equities (or at least a high stock allocation) are loving it - if you couldn’t tell from my excitement [emoji1]

Congrats RetiredAt49.

Those of us who no longer invest in the stock market are loving it too. Interest rates highest in a long time and continuing higher.

Guess the game is benefiting both of us at the same time. Who knows how long this last but wheeeeee on earning safe income !!!

[COcheesehead]

It’s gonna happen….