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Old 01-13-2021, 12:12 PM   #21
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Originally Posted by ZachTB View Post
She's an engineer by trade who runs an investing website and a monthly(?) investment newsletter at www. lynalden. com

From what I've read, she seems level-headed and thorough, and she's got both data and logic to back up her assertions.

I've also noticed that many of her articles that I've read back up my own personal gut-level read of the economic situation. So maybe I'm being blinded by my own bias, because as Sydney Tremaine put it: “No one agrees with other people’s opinions, they merely agree with their own opinion expressed by somebody else.”

So does anybody else have experience with Ms. Alden's newsletter, investing advice, etc?
Thanks for bringing up this site.
I've looked at it, too cheap to pay for the subscription.
I have no idea if she is correct about many things, but I also read the alpha stuff at times, and she appears less biased without an axe to grind.

I like to read other views, as I find I can become too focused or have blinders on and don't consider other views.

Reading her site, did push me to buy more VXUS as I was pretty low in this. Maybe she triggered my confirmation bias, as to the US currency being overvalued, which is something I noticed while moving money between countries.
Fortune favors the prepared mind. ... Louis Pasteur
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Old 01-13-2021, 05:51 PM   #22
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Credentials are useful, helpful, can serve as guideposts. But the credentialed class often gets specific details about complex systems wrong. Especial ones like economy which is greatly influenced by politics.

She does include a lot of facts into her reasoning/opinions. I enjoy reading her articles and think I learn more from her that reading people like Paul Krugman or Larry Kudlow.

Her latest article from a few days ago:
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Old 01-14-2021, 09:28 AM   #23
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The problem with most newsletters is that they often recommend specific investments, but subscribers have no way of knowing if the writer has positioned themselves to profit from those same investments before recommending them in the newsletter.
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Old 01-14-2021, 09:35 AM   #24
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Originally Posted by ncbill View Post
The problem with most newsletters is that they often recommend specific investments, but subscribers have no way of knowing if the writer has positioned themselves to profit from those same investments before recommending them in the newsletter.
aka "pump and dump." It is illegal but most of these chattering monkeys don't have the ability to move a market anyway, so I'd guess that enforcement is not cost-effective.

Taleb's admonition: "Don't tell me what you think, show me your portfolio." would argue in favor of front-running newsletter clients, though I think it is a good test for places like this forum where opinions fly thick and fast.
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Old 01-15-2021, 02:30 PM   #25
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This has generated some pretty good discussion! I appreciate everyone's contributions here, especially OldShooter, since it seems that we tend to come from different angles on this particular topic--that's helped me challenge and scrutinize my own views.

Given that I have read some of her articles and found them insightful, that's the only reason I was even considering signing up for the FREE newsletter!

I wound up signing up for the free newsletter, and I haven't gotten spammed or anything. Basically, the 'newsletter' seems to be a link to a page that she posts every 6 weeks or so. Her January 'newsletter' post argues that we've been in a mild depression ever since 2008. Though stocks have done quite well, actual economic productivity has been pretty much flat during the past decade.

So her free newsletter has basically given me what I wanted--information/analysis.

I should probably clarify that I'm not considering paying $ for a newsletter from anybody, and I'm not planning on actively trading based on her (or anybody's) advice.

Her posts have helped me consider information regarding the economy (over the very long term) and how I might invest more wisely. But I haven't actually taken any action yet...being slow-to-act has helped me avoid serious mistakes in the past.
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Old 01-15-2021, 02:31 PM   #26
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Originally Posted by tdv2 View Post
Here is a good free piece written by Bill Bernstein that doesn't cost a dime....It's somewhat directed at those just starting out but it's also a great refresher for just about anyone.
Thanks! I'll read it!
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Old 01-15-2021, 03:19 PM   #27
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Originally Posted by OldShooter View Post
So you'd be comfortable getting medical treatment from a doctor who flunked out of medical school, flying with a pilot who had never had any flight traiing, and going into court with a criminal defense lawyer who had never been to law school and had never tried a case?

My attitude is different. In the cacophony of ideas, my first move is to look at credentials.
It seems we disagree on this approach. Credentials simply mean that someone [usually an educational institution, but not always] has approved, or is willing to vouch for, a person's knowledge of a particular subject.

People who realize this can, and sometimes do, spout the party line long enough to get the credentials--and then they do what they want, and use the credentials as a shield.

i.e. They commit a logical fallacy--or run a total con--and then when someone objects, they take the attitude "you can't criticize me because I have a degree in X and you don't, and plus, millions of people have bought my book." But the credentials and the book and the TV appearances and all the supposed 'expertise' merely serve in support of the con.

Moreover, every group of people has a blind spot. Even a group of Nobel-Prize winners can be stunned by some revolutionary new finding. It's happened before, and it'll happen again. Einstein, for example, revolutionized the entire field of physics. By definition, he therefore had insight that previous experts lacked.

In short, credentials can be abused. Or meaningless. Or both.

In my own field, there was such a tidal wave of nonsense by well-intentioned people that I left the field. Very few people actually knew what the heck they were talking about, and then they acted offended when someone points out a logical flaw, or even a contradictory fact that's well-established! I suppose these people believe their egos are more important than reality.

In general, your strategy of listening to experts is probably a good approach. Credentials are typically going to be a decent guide to finding actual experts in a given area.

But, of course, there's no guarantee that those credentialed experts are honest, or even competent. The only guarantee is that they've jumped through hoops that somebody else set up.

(Where relevant I have also found to be useful. More "authority," I guess.)
Actually, FINRA is a self-regulatory body:
The financial industry would rather throw a few hundred million per year into FINRA than face the teeth of an empowered SEC.

I recall reading some years ago that, between SEC and the self-regulatory body, total fines levied against financial companies have decreased since 2007, when FINRA replaced NASD. Of course, I can't locate that source now.

According to that now un-findable source, FINRA is basically a strategy to keep the SEC at arm's length. And according to that source, it's working.

That doesn't necessarily mean FINRA is bad. But I'm not sure I'd use that as a guide to choosing a good advisor; only as a way to weed out fraudulent ones. If looking for a financial advisor, I'd consider a CFP designation as much more meaningful. Still not a guarantee of competence, but probably the best credential in the financial world.

A counter argument here might be to observe that nobody can predict the future anyway, so it is basically a bunch of chattering monkeys whose qualifications are irrelevant. So then this woman is as good as any other.
Quite right--I don't trust anybody's predictions of the future. That includes my own.

But I can educate myself about what's happened in the past, and what's happening now. That's all I'm trying to accomplish here--I want to acquire information.

Others have also said that they're impressed by her economic analysis, so it seems that I'm not alone in thinking it's worthwhile as one data point among many.

Your observations have been most helpful in clarifying my own thinking, OldShooter. One tends to learn more from debate than from getting nothing but nods and agreement. So thanks!
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Old 02-23-2021, 05:03 PM   #28
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Originally Posted by Paulz View Post
So far I think my ~$140/year has been worth it.
I looked at her site and the going rate for the newsletter is $199/yr. Did you get a discount or has her rate increased?
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Old 02-24-2021, 06:48 AM   #29
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Originally Posted by creekstone View Post
I looked at her site and the going rate for the newsletter is $199/yr. Did you get a discount or has her rate increased?
I think it was discounted when she first launched it. I can't remember if that was for a set time or not. Guess I'll find out at renewal!
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