RobinHood race from $2,500 to $250,000

[bobandsherry]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fermion ITCI also up to near $30, making the $28 repurchase pretty nice. Hey IRS, how ya doin?

Heh - ITCI has seen some movement. Heading towards the 9/18 calls, I rolled my $19 strike to $27 strike last week, managed to squeak a few more bucks. Those were shares that I had just bought to pick up the premium with plans for it to be called @ $19. Hopefully holds above the new $27 strike, will end up almost 25% return for a month, better than originally expected. Still have another 500 shares that remains on the line. Thanks again Fermion for sharing your original post on ITCI.

[Fermion]

I am back to all cash, made $1200 off that ITCI rebuy at $28.

Currently have $53,500 in cash and 2030% gain since starting in June 2018.

When started, I needed a 60% gain per year compounded for 10 years. Here at 2 years 3 months in, I am past the 6 year point (should be at $42,000 after six years) but not quite to the seven year, $67,000 level. It starts getting insane huh?

From here, if I took about 8 years, I would need a annual return of about 22%, which sounds a lot better than 60% but not as much fun.

Time to research more biotechs!

By the way, if I hit the $250,000 goal, the money is available for any wild thing I desire (spouse approved). I am thinking a trip to Antarctica, a trip to Nome (I love Bering Sea Gold), A narrowboat journey through the UK, and a couple months in Australia/New Zealand....flying first class of course. Any other wild ideas?

[bobandsherry]

Sweet success there Fermion. Since you are all cash you've tossed in the towel on SGMO? Happy trading!

[Fermion]

Quote:

Originally Posted by bobandsherry Sweet success there Fermion. Since you are all cash you've tossed in the towel on SGMO? Happy trading!

For now. I will buy SGMO for a trade sub $10 if it gets down there again (may never). The only way I will make significant money on SGMO is if I am holding it when news pops.

I want to focus more on companies that have 1 or 2 approved drugs and are in trials for other indications. These seem to be the companies that are getting snapped up. Stemline got bought, Gilead just bought IMMU. ITCI fits this almost perfectly but some of the profit potential has been taken out of that since we can't buy it at $17 anymore.

Please inform if you come across other companies with the following criterea:

1) One or more approved drugs, with ongoing trials for more indications
2) Recent capital raises above current market cap
3) Enough cash on hand for a couple of years


There are companies out there that meet this and we just have not found them yet. I need to do a lot more digging.

[Fermion]

Vanda flew across my radar. I remember it from years ago and took another look at it.


Has issues, but has revenue and income (gasp!) and is actually trading quite near cash on hand.

I don't think this one is a buyout or going to skyrocket, but it has somewhat limited downside here (unless scandal or lawsuit).

Went for 1000 shares at $9.75, will probably sell at $11 on a pop.

edit: Also just bought 500 shares of Ionis (IONS) at $53.43. Trading near bottom of a range, looking to make a couple thousand $ on a move back to $60. Probably not a buyout target, they have way too many licenses.

lastly, I want, but have not bought yet, EXEL. I would love to get in this at the right price.

edit: Ok, mostly just to mark it, I bought in EXEL 100 shares at $25.05. I rather expect it to drop back to the low $20s (or maybe not) but long term this looks like a good one. I would increase my holding to 500 shares at $20 to $22 a share.

[Fermion]

Vanda is probably one of the higher potential reward stocks in this recent purchase spree.

As mentioned, I had invested in them way back in (2014?) when they got approval for 24 hour sleep pattern disorder but had not been in the stock since then.

Interesting to me is their phase III drug Tradipitant (where do they come up with drug names?). It is being used to treat gastroparesis, which is really widespread. Sounds super great except they got into a spat with the FDA over animal testing (the FDA wanted a longer testing period for toxicity in a number of different animals). They actually sued the FDA. You know what usually happens when you sue the government? Yeah...you lose.

But anyway, it seems a number of patients that were taking Tradipitant for the max 3 month trial period allowed without the longer toxicity tests have appealed to the FDA to be allowed to continue taking it, calling it life changing. To me, if a drug is being clamored for by patients, and it isn't morphine based, that is a potential seller.

So they have revenues from two drugs of about 250 million a year, they eek out a small profit from this despite the other drug trials, they have over 300 million in cash, and they have a 500 million dollar market cap.

Yeah. Interesting for sure.

[bobandsherry]

Fermion - I had never really looked at bio's previous to you mentioning your most recent plays so I don't know the players and background. Appreciate you sharing your information. Not sure if Vanda is worth a roll of the dice so time to do some DD. Got to find the IMMU unicorns then you'll be much closer to your goal

[Fermion]

Quote:

Originally Posted by bobandsherry Fermion - I had never really looked at bio's previous to you mentioning your most recent plays so I don't know the players and background. Appreciate you sharing your information. Not sure if Vanda is worth a roll of the dice so time to do some DD. Got to find the IMMU unicorns then you'll be much closer to your goal

Yes, that is one of my goals, to identify the Stemlines and IMMUs out there. It isn't easy!

ITCI is definitely one, but I think it will be closer to bipolar disorder indication approval before they are bought out ($50 to $100 buyout).

If Vanda does get approved in 2022 for gastroparesis they would have peak sales of that of maybe $1 billion a year....with a 500mil market cap LOL. A lot of ifs there. They bought the drug from Pfizer in 2013? or something around there IIRC.

I have mixed feelings about Ionis. I think it will only be good for a trade. They *only* dropped to about $40 during the COVID market crisis, so $53 is pretty close to a bottom, and $60 seems within reach easily on volume/news. They have partnered or licensed waaaay too much to be an attractive buyout candidate so I might not stay in this one very long. I can't afford to tie up $25,000 in Robinhood.

[Ogatos]

What are your thoughts on rlftf? It can’t be traded on Robin Hood, but stage 3 trial results due in the next month for a Covid therapy.

[Fermion]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ogatos What are your thoughts on rlftf? It can’t be traded on Robin Hood, but stage 3 trial results due in the next month for a Covid therapy.

Doesn't seem to be a valid stock symbol.

[Ogatos]

RLFTF

It is a otc stock, so it’s unavailable to trade on Robin Hood.

[harley]

It's sort of like ROFLMFAO.

[Fermion]

Lisa that sounds like a super safe way to make money, will look into it.

[bobandsherry]

Um.... Anyone ever heard of ponzi scheme? Anyone see one recently? [emoji848][emoji39]

[Fermion]

Ok, I bought in a bit too early on Vanda (VNDA) but it is very oversold now.

It is trading at less than $500m with $350m in cash and about $240m in revenue from the two approved drugs, with a possibility of a 3rd approval soon.

I am pounding the table on this one. Just bought 6000 more shares in a IRA at $9.10

[bobandsherry]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fermion Ok, I bought in a bit too early on Vanda (VNDA) but it is very oversold now. It is trading at less than $500m with $350m in cash and about $240m in revenue from the two approved drugs, with a possibility of a 3rd approval soon. I am pounding the table on this one. Just bought 6000 more shares in a IRA at $9.10

Based on the options, this one isn't showing a lot of love for upside movement. October $10 call shows basically no interest, no ask price. Nov $10 call just 30 cents with basically no interest either. Only decent interest is Dec $12 and $16 calls but small premium, seems to be a forgotten or ignored company.

However, someone could offer 50% premium to current price and cover half of the price just with the cash. Hhmmm....... time to take a second look.

[brokrken]

Super interesting. Will dig in a bit on this one today.

[brokrken]

Good looking late stage pipeline. Impressive Board Members. Only concern I have is the lack of early stage pipeline. In any case, I'm in for 1000. Let's go!

[Ogatos]

Relief Therapeutics Holdings AG / Key word(s): Miscellaneous
23.09.2020 / 07:02

Relief partner NeuroRx submits request for Emergency Use Authorization for RLF-100(TM) (aviptadil) in the treatment of patients with Critical COVID-19 and Respiratory Failure who have exhausted approved therapy

Emergency Use Authorization request targets the same population as is currently permitted under FDA Expanded Access Protocol

Geneva, Switzerland, and Radnor, PA, September 23, 2020 - RELIEF THERAPEUTICS Holding SA (SIX: RLF, OTCQB: RLFTF) ("Relief" or the "Company") and NeuroRx, Inc. today announce that NeuroRx, Inc. has submitted a request for an Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) with the US FDA for the use of RLF-100(TM) aviptadil in patients who are receiving intensive care and who have exhausted all approved treatments. RLF-100 is being developed by NeuroRx as part of a global partnership with Relief. The submission is based on a case-control study that compared patients who were treated with RLF-100(TM) (n=21) to those receiving maximal standard of care treatment (n=30) in the same ICU by the same medical staff. Patients treated with RLF-100(TM) demonstrated a 3-fold advantage in survival, recovery from respiratory failure, and other parameters indicative of meaningful clinical improvement. Hypotension was seen in two aviptadil patients and was successfully managed with pressors. Diarrhea was seen in 4/21 aviptadil-treated patients and 3/30 control patients. The results have been submitted to a peer-reviewed journal.

"The EUA application covers the same type of patients whom FDA has already allowed to receive treatment under the Expanded Access protocol authorized by the Agency in July. Tragically, we have found that many patients who might benefit from the Expanded Access protocol are hospitalized in centers that do not allow patients access to investigational drugs," said Jonathan Javitt, MD, MPH, Chairman and CEO of NeuroRx, "Our staff is working around the clock to address requests for RLF-100(TM) under the appropriate mechanism. All too often, patients of color and those of lower socioeconomic status are denied access."

FDA's guidance to industry identifies the criteria for EUA as safe and "may be effective," in contrast to the far more stringent requirement of "safe and effective" required for traditional drug approval. EUA may only be granted in circumstances where the Secretary of Health and Human Services has declared a Public Health Emergency, as is true in the COVID-19 pandemic.

Raghuram (Ram) Selvaraju, Chairman of the Board of Relief, said: "We continue to work tirelessly with our partner NeuroRx to bring this potentially life-saving drug to patients afflicted with severe complications of COVID-19 infection as quickly as possible. The pursuit of EUA status is a crucial component of this effort."

[Fermion]

Vanda trading up (admittedly on very low volume) to $9.64, which feels better than $9.10 for sure but still a long way from the $12 to $15 area it should be trading in.