Join Early Retirement Today
Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
S&P YTD over -7.5% today
Old 12-20-2018, 09:36 AM   #1
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Jul 2013
Posts: 1,046
S&P YTD over -7.5% today

Didn't see any talk about it so I thought why not...

I had a couple of VTI limit orders (at $128 and $127) that both got executed and how I got notified. As of right now it's trading at $126.7x

I've got some more dry powder but starting to run low...I'm thinking of putting in another few limit orders for if it drops another 5% or so (VTI $121) over the next couple of months. Thoughts??
dvalley is offline   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Old 12-20-2018, 10:00 AM   #2
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
NYEXPAT's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: Miraflores,Peru
Posts: 1,992
Check your "spam folder", apparently you did not get the email?
NYEXPAT is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-20-2018, 10:10 AM   #3
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Jul 2013
Posts: 1,046
Quote:
Originally Posted by NYEXPAT View Post
Check your "spam folder", apparently you did not get the email?
Email?

Oh, I did get the notification email when my limit orders executed if that's what you mean?
dvalley is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-20-2018, 11:57 AM   #4
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Jul 2013
Posts: 1,046
Looks like a FIRE sale today...S&P down to 2464 now.
dvalley is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-20-2018, 02:31 PM   #5
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Jan 2018
Location: Tampa
Posts: 11,227
Quote:
Originally Posted by dvalley View Post
Looks like a FIRE sale today...S&P down to 2464 now.
Good or bad news, it goes down. Hit 20% already and let's hopefully move on.
__________________
TGIM
Dtail is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 12-20-2018, 05:50 PM   #6
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Jul 2013
Posts: 1,046
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dtail View Post
Good or bad news, it goes down. Hit 20% already and let's hopefully move on.
Personally, I'm hoping for the same...i.e. the bottom of the correction or whatever you want to call it so I can put my cash into the market and ride the next wave up.
dvalley is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-20-2018, 05:54 PM   #7
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Jun 2016
Location: Colorado
Posts: 8,971
I prepared for these days since the spike last January when I changed my AA. I still think we go lower, but the opportunity to get richer is getting closer. Invest wisely my friends.
COcheesehead is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-20-2018, 07:31 PM   #8
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
audreyh1's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Rio Grande Valley
Posts: 38,003
Well I have to say the strength of the downdraft is impressive. I would have thought these drops to play out over a longer period of time, and certainly not in December!!

It also seems somewhat disproportionate. Unless, as some have said, the market is finally realizing that the "Fed Put" is no more. Well - that was long in coming! QE unwind was announced in Sept 2017 and started in Dec 2017, and the Fed had already started rate hikes in Dec 2016. So it took this long for the market to finally get it? You know, like, don't fight the Fed - the equity market ignored that for a long time.
__________________
Retired since summer 1999.
audreyh1 is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 12-20-2018, 08:08 PM   #9
Full time employment: Posting here.
Vincenzo Corleone's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 614
Quote:
Originally Posted by audreyh1 View Post
Well I have to say the strength of the downdraft is impressive. I would have thought these drops to play out over a longer period of time, and certainly not in December!!
Yeah, that was my reaction too. The downward moves have been more dramatic than I had thought they'd be. Maybe that's a good thing in that hopefully things will turn back up sooner than if the downward move was more gradual?

Quote:
Originally Posted by audreyh1 View Post
It also seems somewhat disproportionate. Unless, as some have said, the market is finally realizing that the "Fed Put" is no more. Well - that was long in coming! QE unwind was announced in Sept 2017 and started in Dec 2017, and the Fed had already started rate hikes in Dec 2016. So it took this long for the market to finally get it? You know, like, don't fight the Fed - the equity market ignored that for a long time.
It seems to me like it's a perfect storm of things:
1) Interest rates on the upswing
2) The Fed shrinking its balance sheet on a schedule rather than it being data-driven
3) End-of-year tax-loss harvesting
4) Tariffs on Chinese goods
5) Threats of government shutdown
6) Geopolitical uncertainties

But what do I know?

Speaking of not knowing - I don't understand this whole Fed balance sheet shrinking. From what I understand, the Fed - in '08/'09 - bought up a bunch of government bonds in order to get the yields down, making them unattractive for people to hide in. Bonds get bought up, yields go down. So now that the Fed is unloading these bonds, I don't understand why the yields aren't going up.
Vincenzo Corleone is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-20-2018, 08:23 PM   #10
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
audreyh1's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Rio Grande Valley
Posts: 38,003
Quote:
Originally Posted by Vincenzo Corleone View Post
Speaking of not knowing - I don't understand this whole Fed balance sheet shrinking. From what I understand, the Fed - in '08/'09 - bought up a bunch of government bonds in order to get the yields down, making them unattractive for people to hide in. Bonds get bought up, yields go down. So now that the Fed is unloading these bonds, I don't understand why the yields aren't going up.
Well some folks have indicated that long yields are in fact higher than they would be without the QE unwind. In fact, that they probably "really" are lower with a clearly inverted curve for a while now.

Difficult to know.....
__________________
Retired since summer 1999.
audreyh1 is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 12-20-2018, 11:22 PM   #11
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Sunset's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2014
Location: Spending the Kids Inheritance and living in Chicago
Posts: 17,008
Great time to convert IRA stocks "in kind" to Roth.
Instead of converting cash that may be in your IRA, sending the lower priced stocks over means more can go.

Also avoids the cost of sell and buy.
__________________
Fortune favors the prepared mind. ... Louis Pasteur
Sunset is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-21-2018, 01:44 PM   #12
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Jul 2013
Posts: 1,046
Wow VTI (Total Stock Market) down more than 10% now. Currently $123 per share, 52 wk high was $151

I had another limit order execute automatically when VTI went down to $124 per share today. I've bought at $138, $134, $130, $127, $124 - feels like catching falling knives but my time horizon is about 8yrs so I'm mostly bummed about running low on the dry powder at this point.
dvalley is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-21-2018, 02:26 PM   #13
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Mar 2009
Posts: 2,983
For what its worth I'm not burning my dry powder yet. Either because it doesn't matter that much or its going to fall more. I don't know. If somebody knows for sure please wake me up.
__________________
Took SS at 62 and hope I live long enough to regret the decision.
foxfirev5 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-21-2018, 02:29 PM   #14
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Jan 2018
Location: Tampa
Posts: 11,227
You will have to update the title soon.....
__________________
TGIM
Dtail is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 12-21-2018, 02:40 PM   #15
Recycles dryer sheets
Cat-tirement's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2013
Posts: 285
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sunset View Post
Great time to convert IRA stocks "in kind" to Roth.
Instead of converting cash that may be in your IRA, sending the lower priced stocks over means more can go.

Also avoids the cost of sell and buy.

That was my thought too. Just did my annual conversion this morning.
__________________
How can you tell when a cat is retired?
Cat-tirement is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-21-2018, 02:53 PM   #16
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Jun 2003
Location: Florida's First Coast
Posts: 7,665
-9.1 ytd.
__________________
"Never Argue With a Fool, Onlookers May Not Be Able To Tell the Difference." - Mark Twain
ShokWaveRider is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 12-22-2018, 03:33 AM   #17
Full time employment: Posting here.
 
Join Date: Aug 2013
Location: New Jersey
Posts: 908
According to Marketwatch, S&P 500 is down 17.51% for the past 3 months, down 9.61% YTD and down 9.94% for the year. Almost a bear market.
Al18 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-22-2018, 05:09 AM   #18
Full time employment: Posting here.
 
Join Date: Oct 2016
Location: Pinetops
Posts: 521
I think we get another leg of craziness in January. When the average investor sees his/her next quarterly statement. Investors have taken a beating this December.
__________________
I

ER 12/15/2017
Now: Side Hustle(r) Extraordinaire
IMATERP is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-22-2018, 06:19 AM   #19
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
audreyh1's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Rio Grande Valley
Posts: 38,003
Quote:
Originally Posted by Al18 View Post
According to Marketwatch, S&P 500 is down 17.51% for the past 3 months, down 9.61% YTD and down 9.94% for the year. Almost a bear market.
Yeah, not too far to hit 20%. Been a really long time sine a fall that big.
__________________
Retired since summer 1999.
audreyh1 is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 12-22-2018, 06:44 AM   #20
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Dec 2015
Posts: 1,166
The $64M question is:

Who in their right minds would sell at this level?

That's what I keep thinking as the market continues to drop in multiple hundred point chunks seemingly every single freaking day..

In the meantime, there are some good dividend paying stocks like T (PE of *5*!!, dividend 7.21%), F (ditto, yield 7.45%) and many more out there. While dividends "can" be cut, I wouldn't expect that in either case..these are healthy companies that have been around forever and by all rights look very solid. Just beaten down by the market and a great buying opportunity for those like us looking for income..the alternative for dry powder is ~3% in brokered 2-yr CDs, so this market drop has created opportunities for >2X the income with the same amount invested..

Now if my favorite REIT (O) would just drop a little more..it's been one of the only stocks on my watchlist that seem impervious to the market meltdown..has stayed in the mid 60s throughout and is only yielding just north of 4%. Would like to own more of that and WELL also but they both seem bulletproof price-wise..interesting..
24601NoMore is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Noticed more people holding signs "need work or food" rayinpenn Other topics 3 05-03-2015 02:51 PM
How are your portfolios YTD? laurence FIRE and Money 35 03-12-2005 05:48 PM
long-term bond YTD return Spanky FIRE and Money 43 02-08-2005 12:59 PM
What's Your YTD Return? Tommy_Dolitte Young Dreamers 53 12-02-2004 06:10 AM

» Quick Links

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 06:55 AM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.