Stock Picking 2021

[RVplusDog]

For those of us who enjoy researching stocks and investing (or gambling, YMMV), I thought it might make sense to have a thread for what folks are looking at.

It seems like we might have a more thoughtful discussion in this venue than currently occurs on many of the other social media platforms.

I understand that many on the ER.org boards are vehemently opposed to investing in individual stocks, and that’s OK. I know that there’s a huge variety of backgrounds, knowledge bases, skill sets, and stock/ option experience levels here. I would hope that no one here speculates with more than they can afford to lose: I know I don’t.

At any rate, join in if you wish...

 

[Fermion]

I started off Feb picking a dog (Merck) that still won't hunt but I am not giving up hope.

It is getting hard to see any value out there in other sectors and you have some crazy stuff going on (Gamestonk, Tesla buying 1.5B of bitcoin cause "why not", they have infinite money from their shareholders)

 

[Montecfo]

I have a short list of interesting stocks. Best recent purchase was GAN, online betting infrastructure. It's up about 25 pct in a couple of weeks. Also added to MSFT when it was down in that mini-selloff. Just added to TTWO. Added to small cap value ETF.

Best stock bought in past year would be SNAP.

 

[John0019]

I started off Feb picking a dog (Merck) that still won't hunt but I am not giving up hope.

It is getting hard to see any value out there in other sectors and you have some crazy stuff going on (Gamestonk, Tesla buying 1.5B of bitcoin cause "why not", they have infinite money from their shareholders)

I too recently got into MRK, oh well. Added to JNJ and MSFT fairly recently, been a long time holder of both.

PENN has been one I got into back in Oct...been great for me. They have been capitalizing on online gaming including sports gambling which is growing rapidly.

 

[dunkelblau]

Just bought MRK for the first time in my life yesterday. And GSK and PFE last week, also first time purchases. No DD, just looking at their dividends and hoping they won't be cut by much in the coming quarters. My only other purchase of a large pharma was around a decade ago, LLY at 35 bucks a share, only because at that time it looked cheaper than all the others. Hopefully the story going forward rhymes.

My main issue getting decent returns is atrocious sell timing on big winners. A trader could make a nice living taking the other side of my profitable sales. With that in mind, here's a list of what I sold during the past couple of weeks through yesterday:
NOVT, LSCC, PACB, SAVA, VXRT, OCGN
Each of these won big over holding periods spanning 1 to 10 years, although I'm sure by 2021 standards these will look ordinary. Yesterday I held onto KALV despite the spike, so that sucker's probably doomed.

 

[RVplusDog]

Fermion, yeah I am following your dog also: I picked up some of it in April and May, then the call option that we discussed on the RH thread.

I have a bunch of boring stocks and funds that anchor me, and then some interesting ones that I picked up along the way. I bought CLF in May for $3.87, then in July for $5.48, then in Sept for $6.28. Should have bought more. I picked up a $12 April call yesterday when it dipped ~ I think it has a good chance of profiting.

I picked up VERU in Dec at about $10 - recent press release popped it up, but I’m thinking I should sell some or all.

My best buy recently has been MSTR - more than doubled even with today’s dip. But that will fluctuate wildly with crypto, so it’s definitely not a stock for everyone. I’ll likely trim a bit when BTC gets to 50k.

 

[Montecfo]

Also own MRK and PFE.

Another I like and own in that space is ABBV.

 

[dunkelblau]

I'm still holding onto CLF as well, paid $2.50 way back in July 2015.
Also I forgot that I had sold out of MGNI last week.
Most chips look expensive to me, but thinking about averaging down on CAJ.
And maybe getting K for the dividend.

update:
also forgot I sold UUU during its 3rd spike. As I was kicking myself this morning for letting go of PACB,
just now I see ANCN is blasting off. Unfortunately since I bought it on Feb 25, I need two more weeks to dump it.

 

[Sunset]

Last Oct/Nov I picked up some Abbv for the dividend at ~5.5% .
I paid $87.
I'm now shocked that it is $105.

My dilemma is should I sell for the $18 or hold it for the now ~5% dividend each year

 

[Montecfo]

Last Oct/Nov I picked up some Abbv for the dividend at ~5.5% .
I paid $87.
I'm now shocked that it is $105.

My dilemma is should I sell for the $18 or hold it for the now ~5% dividend each year

What was your objective when you bought it?

It is trading at 9x earnings. I liked it better in the 60s but it seems to be working out.

 

[John0019]

I'm still holding onto CLF as well, paid $2.50 way back in July 2015.
Also I forgot that I had sold out of MGNI last week.
Most chips look expensive to me, but thinking about averaging down on CAJ.
And maybe getting K for the dividend.

update:
also forgot I sold UUU during its 3rd spike. As I was kicking myself this morning for letting go of PACB,
just now I see ANCN is blasting off. Unfortunately since I bought it on Feb 25, I need two more weeks to dump it.

Yeah agree most chips seem expensive. Demand for them outpacing supply and don't see that relenting soon. Multi-year positions and gonna hold on to NVDA and AMD for now, as have trimmed some and have original cost basis + some taken care of.

Yesterday entered short term position in CLF via call options for like the 3rd time in the past two or three months...hope it works out like prior.

 

[Sunset]

What was your objective when you bought it?

It is trading at 9x earnings. I liked it better in the 60s but it seems to be working out.

My objective with Abbv was thinking it would maintain it's price and pay out a 5.5% dividend.

It seemed a good balance to my BND fund which pays out 1% and loses 2%

So I decided to "hedge" my dilemma: I sold some calls on Abbv with SP of $115, for $0.65

This way I won't feel bad if I sell it at $115, and otherwise feel better getting an extra $0.65 (just over 1/2% extra)

This is in an IRA so no tax issues.

 

[Montecfo]

Sunset, sounds good.

 

[CyclingInvestor]

My largest 4 positions (all in IRAs, so no Canadian tax withholding) are:

BIP, BEP : bought in late 2018
ENB, TRP : bought last month with proceeds from BPY (takeover offer)

All 4 have solidly backed dividends with 5+% growth expected in the coming years. BIP and BEP are partnerships, but no UBTI is generated due to the corporate structure.

BEP is currently overpriced, BIP fairly priced, and ENB and TRP are underpriced (especially TRP) by my standards.

 

[capitalhockey]

Picked up Shopify (SHOP) last August and have been holding with my ROTH funds.

So far, so good....

 

[RVplusDog]

I wish I had bought many of the stocks you guys are talking about - SHOP and the pot stocks especially .

I do have some of a few the chipmakers, halving my INTL a few weeks ago at a nice high point for me.

Sunset, I’ve had good luck with ABBV options ~ I’m planning on selling some calls once I finish moving my accounts out of VG.

Q for you guys - do you all participate in your broker’s stock lending programs? They have different terms for it “enhancement” etc. It sounds like there’s really no downside. Maybe there’s really no $$ in it either?

 

[capitalhockey]

I wish I had bought many of the stocks you guys are talking about - SHOP and the pot stocks especially .

I do have some of a few the chipmakers, halving my INTL a few weeks ago at a nice high point for me.

Sunset, I’ve had good luck with ABBV options ~ I’m planning on selling some calls once I finish moving my accounts out of VG.

Q for you guys - do you all participate in your broker’s stock lending programs? It sounds like there’s really no downside. Maybe there’s really no $$ in it either?

You mean trade on margins? I am too much of an amateur to play with someone's else money!

 

[garyt]

These are all my individual equity holdings:
T CSCO AAPL FB HD COST NRZ PG V MA (my biggest holding by far) FVRR

JNJ PINS SIVB ADSK CRWD CTAS MSFT ZM GOOGL TXN

I sold DIS at the start of the pandemic for $129 and felt good when it dropped to $95. My has it rebounded. Parks closed, cruises closed and it rallies? Disney+ isn't that great a money maker to compensate for the other segments imo.

 

[copyright1997reloaded]

Most of my holdings are very long term. My largest holdings are: AAPL, EW, ADI, MSFT, HON, ABBV, TMO, ABT, MAR. All of these are many years with low basis, with the exception of TMO which I picked up last March @ about $310 (now $484).

However, since September I have putting some "play" money into a bunch of speculative plays. My current holdings are (with % gain/loss):
ALTO 22%, AUPH 13%, BFT 13%, CRLBF 45%, DM 101%, FIII -8%, GIK 14%, GBTC 29%, OCUL 90%, PSTH 49%, TFFP 7.5%, VFF 83%, XERS 55%, Xl -3%, INSG 113%, GMDA 45%, DMYD 5%, SIOX 10%. These do not include gains I've already taken. In December I sold some with profits and did immediate buy back to offset some short term losses in March and so far this year I've been selling off bits and pieces and sometimes buying back at a "higher low" to reestablish a position. Nor does it include some complete sell offs to take a profit and move onto something else. I have these positions across four different accounts, I would estimate (looking at each account but not wanting to take the time to create a spreadsheet to fully calculate) that I am averaging about 11-13% on positions realized in 2021, similar or better for the December 2020 sales (on which I was taking short term gains on purpose).

All of the above are as of end of regular trading today, and I did 5 trades starting from after hours last night to now. Sold GMDA in AH @ 15.98, cost 8.52; bought DYMD @ 19.81 (add to position), Bought SOLD @ 8.45, sold @ 8.55 (very quick 5 minute trade), bought BMWLF @ 1.26 being bought by CRLBF but selling at a discount to deal value, sold some ALTO @ 8.03 (bought at 7.70, trimming position).

And yes, I know that this crazy market will eventually end. Yes, I will lose $ when that happens. Hopefully I will have enough profit taken off that it will still be a good use of capital.

 

[RVplusDog]

You mean trade on margins? I am too much of an amateur to play with someone's else money!

No, it’s lending your shares to your broker who lends them to someone else and splits the earnings with you. Fidelity’s doc is here:
https://www.fidelity.com/trading/fully-paid-lending

 

[RVplusDog]

I sold DIS at the start of the pandemic for $129 and felt good when it dropped to $95. My has it rebounded. Parks closed, cruises closed and it rallies? Disney+ isn't that great a money maker to compensate for the other segments imo.

Sigh. I did this with a bunch of stocks. I even had an $80 limit order out there for DIS until recently. Lots of stuff rocketed past me on its way up to these new record levels.

Once I got back to 65% stocks, I’ve really cut back on buying anything close to its 52w or all time high. It takes a good dip percentage for me to pick up any of the fast growing ones. That said, I probably haven’t captured enough profit from certain positions. That is going to change once my portfolio gets settled into its new brokerage next week. Hope stuff stays stable until then. Crossing fingers, knocking wood :-/

 

[copyright1997reloaded]

Sigh. I did this with a bunch of stocks. I even had an $80 limit order out there for DIS until recently. Lots of stuff rocketed past me on its way up to these new record levels.

Once I got back to 65% stocks, I’ve really cut back on buying anything close to its 52w or all time high. It takes a good dip percentage for me to pick up any of the fast growing ones. That said, I probably haven’t captured enough profit from certain positions. That is going to change once my portfolio gets settled into its new brokerage next week. Hope stuff stays stable until then. Crossing fingers, knocking wood :-/

I have a bunch of psychological, negative, quirks in my investing that I have tried to identify and compensate for over the years.

One of them is that I am a bargain hunter, which makes it difficult for me to buy things that are up a lot or hitting new highs. This quirk has cost me a lot of money over the years. Why? Because stocks that are hitting new highs tend to continue doing so, and stocks that have gone down (i.e. are "bargains"), continue to do so.

Some of my biggest winners (% wise) over the last few months have been stocks hitting new highs that are up big time from the March lows. But it has taken great effort on my part to hit the buy key on them.

The thing I've learned about stock picking, investing, and trading is that NO ONE is perfect. The ones that do well tend to understand their strategy or niche and most importantly have analyzed their history to identify mistakes to do better in the future.

My main individual stock account was up 34.5% in 2020, but I had plenty of mistakes - not just in stock selection but more importantly these "quirks" (of which there are many) that prevented me from doing better. (And by better, I mean on a risk adjusted basis.)

 

[Montecfo]

Picked up Shopify (SHOP) last August and have been holding with my ROTH funds.

So far, so good....

I think I began in late 2018 with SHOP. Was definitely adding in Feb, Mar last year.

 

[Montecfo]

These are all my individual equity holdings:
T CSCO AAPL FB HD COST NRZ PG V MA (my biggest holding by far) FVRR

JNJ PINS SIVB ADSK CRWD CTAS MSFT ZM GOOGL TXN

I sold DIS at the start of the pandemic for $129 and felt good when it dropped to $95. My has it rebounded. Parks closed, cruises closed and it rallies? Disney+ isn't that great a money maker to compensate for the other segments imo.

I think I have 80 positions or so.

DIS has turned out to be a really good. I bought at 87, 88, and 92 in March with a long-term view. It is going to be stronger as a reopening play but has bee a nice SAH stock also.

 

[DangerDad]

I believe PYPL will continue to do well as a LONG term Investment.

DD