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10-12-2019, 08:17 AM
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#1521
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Northern IL
Posts: 26,887
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Boho
I said 4432. And I explained how I did everything. I'm not sure what you did with your fancy math. I have to look into it.
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Sorry, my 4332 shares was a typo, I used your 4432 in my calcs, so it doesn't change any of the numbers that I posted. Though the 4432 appears to be funky anyhow. Stick with 'adj close', unless you can point out an actual error in it.
See how easy it is to own up to a mistake?
-ERD50
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10-12-2019, 08:36 AM
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#1522
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Feb 2017
Posts: 1,844
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08-12-2019 Anyway, here's some additional info based by ERD50's calculations.
Quote:
Originally Posted by ERD50
SPY investor: $1,319,203.90
Boho: $1,295,052.49 <<< BIGGER LOSER!!!!!
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That's a 1.84767% difference.
Per month % difference: 1.84767% / 30.5 months = 0.06057934426%
Per quarter % difference: 0.06057934426% x 4 = 0.24231737704%
Per year % difference: 0.06057934426% x 12 = 0.72695213112%
Edit: per quarter % difference: 0.06057934426% x 3 = .18173803278
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10-12-2019, 11:54 AM
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#1523
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Feb 2017
Posts: 1,844
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OK, I don't know how the adjusted close works.
In August when I looked up SPY, date range Mar 29, 2017 - Aug. 12, 2019 it said:
"March 29, 2017...adjusted closing price: 225.63"
Today, for date range Mar 29, 2017 - Oct 12, 2019 , it says:
"March 29, 2017...adjusted closing price: 224.59"
March 29, 2017 was the first date in the range. I figured anything having an impact on it must have occurred earlier, not later. Like, you buy, and later you reinvest a dividend, then after the buy date there's an adjustment because you own more shares than you started with. I don't understand the adjustment to the day-1 closing price that happens months later.
There needs to be a concise tutorial on this. I should have seen one by now somewhere.
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10-12-2019, 12:11 PM
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#1524
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Nov 2010
Location: Sarasota, FL & Vermont
Posts: 36,358
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You might be better off to just use M*
https://www.morningstar.com/funds/xn...nx/performance
then click on Show Interactive Chart and put in your dates.
Using Mar 29 2017, $10,000 of VFINX would have grown by $3,205.12.... to $13,205.... so $1m would have grown to $1,320,512 as of Sep 30 2019
P.S. You're still getting spanked by the index fund
__________________
If something cannot endure laughter.... it cannot endure.
Patience is the art of concealing your impatience.
Slow and steady wins the race.
Retired Jan 2012 at age 56
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10-12-2019, 01:00 PM
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#1525
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Northern IL
Posts: 26,887
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Boho
OK, I don't know how the adjusted close works.
In August when I looked up SPY, date range Mar 29, 2017 - Aug. 12, 2019 it said:
"March 29, 2017...adjusted closing price: 225.63"
Today, for date range Mar 29, 2017 - Oct 12, 2019 , it says:
"March 29, 2017...adjusted closing price: 224.59"
March 29, 2017 was the first date in the range. I figured anything having an impact on it must have occurred earlier, not later. Like, you buy, and later you reinvest a dividend, then after the buy date there's an adjustment because you own more shares than you started with. I don't understand the adjustment to the day-1 closing price that happens months later.
There needs to be a concise tutorial on this. I should have seen one by now somewhere.
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It's not difficult if you just apply some thought to it.
It's a backwards look from today. That has an advantage over adjusting today's price based on a previous date. If you were to adjust today's price, you need to do another run for every starting date you want to check. When you do it as Yahoo! does, you run the end date, and the adjustment for every previous date is in one table.
The adjusted price for March 29, 2017 changed between Aug. 12, 2019 and Oct 12, 2019 because a dividend was paid between those two dates.
Sep 20, 2019 1.384 Dividend
So they have to be different, right? Because the end price is fixed, the starting price must change.
They don't add exactly, because there were price changes in SPY on those re-invested divs - they didn't just sit in cash.
Understand?
You're still behind the market.
-ERD50
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10-12-2019, 05:19 PM
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#1526
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Feb 2017
Posts: 1,844
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ERD50
It's not difficult if you just apply some thought to it.
It's a backwards look from today.
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I read that Yahoo's method is noncompliant with a Financial Accounting Standards Board standard. Anyway, whatever.
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10-13-2019, 12:25 AM
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#1527
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Feb 2017
Posts: 1,844
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ransil
I have been getting a 500 error when i try to get into my portfolio, i can get into everyone elses portfoil, just mot mine.
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Now it works but you've been reset to $1,000,000.
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10-13-2019, 08:37 AM
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#1528
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Northern IL
Posts: 26,887
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Boho
I read that Yahoo's method is noncompliant with a Financial Accounting Standards Board standard. Anyway, whatever.
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So?
And "you read"? That's an impressive citation.
Yahoo! finance is a free web-site. I'm sure they don't want to bother with a formal certification process. You can get their adjusted prices on thousands of trading stocks, and I don't doubt there are some errors from time to time, and they most likely occur on thinly traded stocks.
Despite your never ending deflection/excuse/obfuscation theme, it doesn't matter. We can check a very high profile fund/ETF like VOO, SPY, VTI ourselves against multiple sources if we think there are any errors. We can make a ballpark estimate by just taking the start-end stock price, and add the dividends to the gain. That won't account for reinvesting, but it's simple, and would make any significant error stand out.
And it only takes a bit more effort to take the average length of time the divs were held (half the time period is close enough), and apply the average annualized gain of the fund to those divs and that time, and you'll come within a cat whiskers of doing it a more official way (reinvesting each div).
This is pretty basic arithmetic. Anyone claiming to be an exceptional trader should be able to figure (should already know) this on their own.
If the contest ends in a photo-finish, we can check those details out, but your trading skills should make that unnecessary, you should blow everyone, and the market away by a huge margin!
-ERD50
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10-13-2019, 09:20 AM
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#1529
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Feb 2017
Posts: 1,844
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ERD50
So?
And "you read"? That's an impressive citation.
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Dividend Adjusted Stock Prices
© Montgomery Investment Technology, Inc. / Sorin R. Straja, Ph.D., FRM
April 2008
The webpage is blocked by Windows Defender SmartScreen but Google's cached version opens, at least for now.
Also, I think there are missing images in the equations.
Quote:
Using the Yahoo! Finance approach is equivalent to a reduction in the stock price for the day preceding the dividend distribution, as opposed to an increase in the stock price for the day when the dividend is distributed. This approach does not match the results from FAS 123 Appendix F paragraph 408 (FASB 1995) because the relative returns are not accounted for correctly. However, as long as the dividend distributions are relatively small, the error is relatively small.
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It's not a big deal to me.
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10-13-2019, 10:55 AM
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#1530
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Nov 2010
Location: Sarasota, FL & Vermont
Posts: 36,358
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FWIW, the reference to the FASB does not apply to the determination of stock prices as Bozo seems to infer... rather, it relates to calculating volatility for the purpose of valuing stock options in accounting for stock-based compensation (FAS 123).
The reference is to an appendix example where the difference in volatility between the two approaches is pretty minor... 0.299 vs 0.294.... and obviously has no impact on the computation of return and Bozo seems to think.
__________________
If something cannot endure laughter.... it cannot endure.
Patience is the art of concealing your impatience.
Slow and steady wins the race.
Retired Jan 2012 at age 56
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10-13-2019, 12:01 PM
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#1531
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Feb 2017
Posts: 1,844
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pb4uski
FWIW, the reference to the FASB does not apply to the determination of stock prices as Bozo seems to infer...
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I believe it's relevant to "Dividend Adjusted Stock Prices" as the article seems to infer. I don't care if it's also used for options. But maybe you're right...I don't care about that either. I have my own idea about a margin of error and the accuracy of the tools we're using and I don't need your approval.
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10-13-2019, 12:17 PM
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#1532
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Northern IL
Posts: 26,887
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To paraphrase Monty Python, "This skit has gotten far too silly!".
I'm going to bow out, at least until the OCT EOM update. I'll leave Boho to ponder the deep inner workings of simple arithmetic, and how it relates (not!) to this contest.
-ERD50
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10-13-2019, 12:29 PM
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#1533
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Feb 2017
Posts: 1,844
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ERD50
To paraphrase Monty Python, "This skit has gotten far too silly!".
I'm going to bow out, at least until the OCT EOM update. I'll leave Boho to ponder the deep inner workings of simple arithmetic, and how it relates (not!) to this contest.
-ERD50
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My first and most intuitive choice of simple arithmetic didn't work because Yahoo chose the easy way to do calculations without a warning. And I only went to Yahoo because I accidently learned that other tools, also with no warning, didn't make the necessary adjustments. If it were so simple then the online tools would do it. I don't trust much of what I read on investing any more.
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10-13-2019, 09:37 PM
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#1534
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Feb 2017
Posts: 1,844
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This isn't very helpful but I was playing with charts in Word and made this. It would be better if the exact values were printed on each bar.
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10-14-2019, 09:47 AM
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#1535
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Feb 2017
Posts: 1,844
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I just placed the largest order I ever placed, for LHX, estimated at over $600,000, then I was afraid it wouldn't go through because of limits, so I try lowering it and I get a 500 Server Error. It's been about 5 minutes so far. Nothing works.
...I was able to lower it by placing an additional market order. I don't think I could have canceled the first one anyway because it's a market order. But I still can't access my portfolio page.
...back to normal...I got 3000 shares of LHX at $207.89 ($623,674.99)
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10-14-2019, 03:09 PM
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#1536
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Nov 2010
Location: Sarasota, FL & Vermont
Posts: 36,358
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Boho
...I got 3000 shares of LHX at $207.89 ($623,674.99)
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Closed today at $206.64.... $1.25 lower than your buy.... not a great start.
__________________
If something cannot endure laughter.... it cannot endure.
Patience is the art of concealing your impatience.
Slow and steady wins the race.
Retired Jan 2012 at age 56
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10-14-2019, 04:03 PM
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#1537
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Feb 2017
Posts: 1,844
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Yeah, I don't know exactly why it did that but I often/usually buy on a day when the stock went down and it often still has downward momentum before it turns around.
With LHX, I think the headline I saw was about the company fulfilling part of a known order. That's fairly meaningless, but for some reason I clicked and read the article and it said they got another contract, which IMO was the real news. I wonder if those computer trading programs that read the news would have picked up on the part about the new contract.
And today's Columbus day, I wonder if that makes it easier to find stock deals.
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10-14-2019, 05:40 PM
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#1538
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Feb 2017
Posts: 1,844
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Boho
...for some reason I clicked and read the article and it said they got another contract, which IMO was the real news...
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Specifically, after clicking you see a bulleted list of the major facts on top of the article, including "Part of initial order, with additional delivery orders subsequently received, under $391 million ENVG-B Directed Requirement contract". But how's a computer (or a human) supposed to know if "orders subsequently received" means after the original order but in the past, or if that's news? You have to read several paragraphs of the article to find:
"Following the delivery of the first 40 units, L3Harris received two additional delivery orders totaling approximately $153 million" so, since the delivery is new, the report of the subsequent orders is new. I just need investors to understand that before the contest ends.
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10-14-2019, 08:41 PM
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#1539
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Nov 2010
Location: Sarasota, FL & Vermont
Posts: 36,358
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Yeah... good luck with that.
__________________
If something cannot endure laughter.... it cannot endure.
Patience is the art of concealing your impatience.
Slow and steady wins the race.
Retired Jan 2012 at age 56
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10-15-2019, 06:45 AM
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#1540
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Feb 2017
Posts: 1,844
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Boho
Now it works but you've been reset to $1,000,000.
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The server error now affects me so I could very well have my account reset to $1,000,000 eventually. I don't see any other players with this problem. Ransil had the most trades and he was the first to have it happen. I have the second most trades and it looks like I'm the second to have it happen.
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