Stock Picking (Beat Boho) Contest - V2.0

[Boho]

Results as of two hours after the last trading day of the contest. I'll check rankings for the next three days to see if there's been any updates.

comsecga, spudd, kite_rider, and cfahey27 win the non-exclusive license to use the phrase "I Beat Boho" on tee shirts, mugs, etc., for their own personal use.

Cash values below are included in the total account value next to the players' names. The list below is compiled from individual pages of the players.

1. comsecga $3,722,114.02
Cash $283,480.02
Annual Return 56.18 %

2. Spudd $2,434,926.11
Cash $1,351,426.11
Annual Return 34.61 %

3. kite_rider $1,385,621.66
Cash $458,446.66
Annual Return 14.06 %

4. cfahey27 $1,348,168.17
Cash $18,957.67
Annual Return 12.72 %

5. Boho $1,183,932.26
Cash $4,581.28
Annual Return 5.80 %

6. lbymfreddie $1,134,877.82
Cash $3,155.12
Annual Return 4.34 %

7. easysurfer $1,007,976.34
Cash $204,161.56
Annual Return 0.27 %

8. Jenkins Leroy $1,000,000.00
Cash $1,000,000.00
Annual Return 0.00 %

9. exnavynuke $1,000,000.00
Cash $1,000,000.00
Annual Return 0.00 %

10. jmil07 $1,000,000.00
Cash $1,000,000.00
Annual Return 0.00 %

11. guestperson $987,675.01
Cash $933,660.01
Annual Return -1.35 %

12. nvestysly $984,767.63
Cash $976.41
Annual Return -0.60 %

13. covert1 $931,879.74
Cash $129.74
Annual Return -2.42 %

14. RiskyBusinessC2 $850,378.22
Cash $297,808.22
Annual Return -5.58 %

15. DieWurst $837,553.58
Cash - $579,799.58
Annual Return -5.75 %

16. natetheb $654,456.76
Cash $38,814.72
Annual Return -26.04 %

17. ransil $604,169.09
Cash $797,651.29
Annual Return -66.32 %

18. lawrencewendall $424,501.59
Cash - $189,453.50
Annual Return -24.90 %

 

[jazz4cash]

Let me be the first to say Congratulations, Boho.

 

[Boho]

Let me be the first to say Congratulations, Boho.

Thanks! I didn't post a comparison with the S&P 500 because others think I do it wrong, but I know I beat it.

 

[harley]

Thanks! I didn't post a comparison with the S&P 500 because others think I do it wrong, but I know I beat it.

I don't think so. I'm not a chart guy, but just a quick look at SPY shows a 3 year annual return of 9.87%. VTI shows 9.33%. If your return was 5.8% I'd say you lagged the market significantly. But you did beat the people that just left it in cash.

Edit: Again, that was just a quick peek. I'm not sure whether the past few weeks were included in my charts I pulled up or not. Also not sure about dividends and taxes. But I'd be surprised if you beat the indexes.

 

[Boho]

just a quick look at SPY shows a 3 year annual return of 9.87%. VTI shows 9.33%. If your return was 5.8% I'd say you lagged the market significantly. But you did beat the people that just left it in cash.

5.8 is my annual return, not for 3 years.

wait...I think you knew that...

I was well ahead of the index blend that ERD50 was using, then I gained more, then I bought the index and quit trading.


The current rankings give the overall percent gain. I'm listed at 18.39%. 18.39/3 = 6.13. I still say I beat the S&P 500 but I'll let others chime in before I try to figure it out more accurately.

 

[harley]

Well, I'm confused. I'm pretty sure the numbers I listed are annualized too. But I'll wait for someone more chart competent than me. No matter what, it's been interesting.

 

[Boho]

Just go to VFIAX Vanguard 500 Index Fund Admiral Shares Fund VFIAX chart and then put in the dates.... in this case 3/29/17 to 10/31/19.... the result will be the growth of $10,000 with dividends reinvested.... then just multiply result by 100 since the initial investment is $1 million rather than $10,000....

I put in the 3/29/17 to 3/28/20 and got "S&P 500 TR USD 11,436.80" multiplied by 100 it's $1,143,680. My account value is $1,183,932.26 so I beat the S&P 500.

 

[easysurfer]

Was a fun contest and Boho is a good sport during the three years.

IMO, couldn't draw too many conclusions from the standings because of the inaccuracies of the contest calculations folks encountered. I'm glad though that in the span of the contest we hit both a bull and bear to make things interesting.

 

[LOL!]

I put in the 3/29/17 to 3/28/20 and got "S&P 500 TR USD 11,436.80" multiplied by 100 it's $1,143,680. My account value is $1,183,932.26 so I beat the S&P 500.

The cube root of 1.1839326 is 1.0579, so 5.79% CAGR.

 

[ERD50]

I'll run the numbers for a benchmark and post tomorrow. I was thinking EOM, but I guess technically it was 3/29, so last Friday would be the last day of the contest.

Assuming Boho stayed in the index funds since last month, he should finish ahead of the benchmark. But it's tough to say if he beat others, as so many were dropped out by the system, or had other problems with their accounts.

But I think it speaks volumes that, once he manged to get ahead, he fell back to the index strategy. If he was really confident in his stock picking and timing ability, he would have kept stock picking and timing. Sure, that's a good approach, play it 'safe' if you want to beat the benchmark proxy, but it really doesn't say anything positive about those ''skills'. Especially when he was behind the benchmark the vast majority of the time.

But if this gave Boho a bit of humility (I said "if"), and respect for the indexing strategy which he wholeheartedly embraced at the end, maybe something positive came from it. It's too bad there were problems with the accounts, it could have provided a bit better data if it had been better controlled.

-ERD50

 

[Boho]

I was ahead of ERD50's benchmark and continued to trade in every one of the last 5 months.

 

[jazz4cash]

He was doing quite well towards the end but it took a Black Swan for Boho to clinch the win. He still gets credit for the win win but the rest of us are looking at all the effort and luck required so we still think B&H the index is much better.

https://images.app.goo.gl/ELXCtBcFGD4DuVvp7

 

[ERD50]

Here's my calculation. Boho managed to pull a head right at the end.

Boho end value: $1,183,932

Market end value: $1,125,583

Delta: $58,349

And here's a chart, I only have data starting NOV2017, but Boho was far behind at that point, and only just recently caught up, and passed. Just 3 months out of 29 where he had a discernible lead. If we were to look at the area under the curve, he lags big time. And of course, much higher standard dev ( $152,417 vs $93,212)

He was doing quite well towards the end but it took a Black Swan for Boho to clinch the win. He still gets credit for the win win but the rest of us are looking at all the effort and luck required so we still think B&H the index is much better.

https://images.app.goo.gl/ELXCtBcFGD4DuVvp7

I'm not sure I'd attribute anything to the "Black Swan", he caught up and passed during the rising market, and just sort of held on a bit during the drop (just some un-invested cash?).

Credit for "the win"? Wait, the contest was "beat Boho", not "Can Boho beat the market?". It's tough to say with all the problems in the game, drop outs, and still some people listed who apparently did nothing (exactly $1,000,000?), but it appears that some people did beat Boho. He lost to 4 others per his list.

-ERD50

 

[Boho]

I was ahead of ERD50's benchmark and continued to trade in every one of the last 5 months.

I'll reword...

Despite being ahead of ERD50's benchmark (which was 50% S&P 500 and 50% whole stock market) for five months¹ I continued to trade in every one of those five months.

1. The chart for VOO, an S&P 500 ETF, shows steady gains until Feb. 19, a date that was months after my passing the S&P 500

 

[ERD50]

...

I was well ahead of the index blend that ERD50 was using, then I gained more, then I bought the index and quit trading.
...

I'll reword...

Despite being ahead of ERD50's benchmark (which was 50% S&P 500 and 50% whole stock market) for five months¹ I continued to trade in every one of those five months.
...

? That's not a rewording, it's a contradiction.

And if you were "well ahead" at any point, what words would be used to describe how far behind you were most months on that chart? Would those words violate community guidelines?

-ERD50

 

[Boho]

what words would be used to describe how far behind you were most months on that chart

I claim randomness.

 

[REWahoo]

I claim randomness.

IOW, the same strategy that won you the contest.

 

[Boho]

? That's not a rewording, it's a contradiction.

No, I DID trade in early March. I just retired a few weeks early but I didn't quit as soon as I was ahead. I traded for months after that. I also traded after being ahead in the beginning of the contest before you started monitoring it.

 

[Boho]

he caught up and passed during the rising market, and just sort of held on a bit during the drop (just some un-invested cash?).

Not just some cash. I shorted the S&P 500 in February.

https://www.early-retirement.org/fo...boho-contest-v2-0-a-86109-81.html#post2377855

 

[Boho]

Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 34 (2 members and 32 guests)

Wow, I've never seen that many guests. I imagine there are some high level discussions about my achievement in the finance world. I'll consider a work from home gig with the right firm.

 

[ERD50]

Originally Posted by Boho View Post
I claim randomness.

IOW, the same strategy that won you the contest.

But he didn't win. He lost to 4 others per his list. And some dropped out. Randomness would have predicted that some would be better, some worse.

The contest was "beat Boho", not "Can Boho beat the market?".

-ERD50

 

[ERD50]

Wow, I've never seen that many guests. I imagine there are some high level discussions about my achievement in the finance world. I'll consider a work from home gig with the right firm.

Good luck with that.

I heard that Nassim Nicholas Taleb was looking for talented dart-throwing monkeys. Give him a call.

And BTW, this has been my view from the start, I've been consistent. No excuses.

-ERD50

 

[Boho]

The contest was "beat Boho".

Yes. Others were tasked to beat me. I just had to show up so I technically didn't lose to anyone.

 

[ERD50]

Yes. Others were tasked to beat me. I just had to show up so I technically didn't lose to anyone.

"80 percent of success is just showing up" —Woody Allen

Now, for your 'strategy' to work in real life, you just need to convince the rest of the market to not show up. Should be easy, right?

IOW, this might have been 'fun', but it really has zero bearing on making money in real life.

-ERD50

 

[Boho]

Here's a larger version of my avatar. The brokerages apparently think they can learn how I trade from my posts so I'm not receiving offers, but maybe publishers would be interested. You could see my writing experience from my post count. I know MS Word.