Stock Picking (Beat Boho) Contest - V2.0

[Boho]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Totoro Grrr .. even at reduced volume it bounces half my trades.

Reduced volume an hour after the open should work.

[pb4uski]

$1,000,000 invested in VTSAX (Vanguard Total Stock) on 3/29/17 would be worth $1,026,508 at 5/27/17 and would be in 4th place.... am I right on that?

Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund Admiral Shares VTSAX

[easysurfer]

Quote:

Originally Posted by pb4uski $1,000,000 invested in VTSAX (Vanguard Total Stock) on 3/29/17 would be worth $1,026,508 at 5/27/17 and would be in 4th place.... am I right on that? Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund Admiral Shares VTSAX

Sounds about right. Nunnun pretty much pretty much has half VOO (SP500 ETF) and the other half in VTI (Tot Stock ETF) from the start, just letting his portfolio ride with those two ETFs and at the moment he's sitting pretty in 4th place.

[Fermion]

I am dead last which is right where I want to be so I can swing to first place. My type of investing is called pendulum trading. If you don't get to last place, you will never be able to swing into first place.

[sengsational]

Quote:

Originally Posted by pb4uski $1,000,000 invested in VTSAX (Vanguard Total Stock) on 3/29/17 would be worth $1,026,508 at 5/27/17 and would be in 4th place.... am I right on that? Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund Admiral Shares VTSAX

To be in 4th place, someone would have had to join the game at the right moment and take that buy action. The right place and the right time and the decisiveness to pull the trigger will all of that fake money. It ain't nothin'!

[pb4uski]

I guess my thinking is that these genuises swinging for the fences because it is funy money should be able to beat a benchmark index if they are as smart as they think they are.

[sengsational]

My thinking is just the opposite... "these geniuses" seem to be running very much like "managed funds", right? To a fund manager, it's funy munny. And we all know those actively managed funds tend to under perform benchmarks. Oh, but wait, we don't have those big fees here, so maybe they've got a chance.

[Boho]

There's a level beyond the big fee funds. Momentum investing is considered too costly for mutual funds but if an investor is willing to do the work himself, and he does it right, it could work. I like to think what I do is too time consuming and results in too few trades for it to be done commercially. It may be that people who know tend to choose something more lucrative. The few who trade like me may not be enough to render my style ineffective.

[Totoro]

My splendid arrogant reasoning (why I might outperform professionals) involves investment in smaller, international and longer term opportunities as well as companies under 'collateral damage': e.g. a whole sector/geography goes down usually also hits a few great companies undeservedly. Brexit recently is a good example, the Euro banking crisis was another nice one. Or the exchange rate surge of the Swiss franc.

Thing is: I can't buy them in this contest as most of them have either low volume or international. Oh well ..

[easysurfer]

Looking at the ranking today, my "no drama passive investing" approach has me inching up sitting happily in 5th place.

Added bonus, portfolio value more than at start of $1M. Not a lot more, but still on the positive side .

[Totoro]

[easysurfer]

Glancing at the standings, as of this morning Boho has sunk all the way to the bottom at $930,890.30 which is a whole $116,687.94 below lawrencewendall who holds the top spot at $1,047,578.33.

There's still time for a rebound, but if this continues, the contest might have to be renamed "Beat Boho by a Lot" .

Not sure if RiskyBusinessC2 is from this forum. But if so, welcome to the contest.

[Totoro]

"Beat Boho Bigly"

[easysurfer]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Totoro "Beat Boho Bigly"

Nice! I like the alliteration.

Kidding aside, Boho was doing so well until he made a big bet of about $500K on one stock that went south instead of north.

From strategy perspective, that's a danger of trying to pick individual stocks vs something like a SP 500 Index fund or total market index fund (or ETF). For the latter, over time there should be a bounce back and the market as a whole tends to go up. But pick a stock that does a dive, there's no guarantee the stock will come back (for example, Enron).

[Boho]

I may have to wait a quarter for it to turn around, but I doubt it. I rose to the middle of the pack two days ago but dropped by the time they refreshed the rankings. It's only 10:00 AM EST and the stock has been up over 7%. I don't know where that would put me but I may take a vacation for a quarter and hold. The one thing I'll change is I'll wait longer than a day after a drop to buy.

[easysurfer]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Boho I may have to wait a quarter for it to turn around, but I doubt it. I rose to the middle of the pack two days ago but dropped by the time they refreshed the rankings. It's only 10:00 AM EST and the stock has been up over 7%. I don't know where that would put me but I may take a vacation for a quarter. The one thing I'll change is I'll wait longer than a day to buy in such a case.

You are a good sport taking our kidding.

Okay, here's a question to you as a "stock picker". Wouldn't want you to divulge any picking secrets , but how do you decide when to cut your losses or hold on on a stock?

Remember years back when there was talk about Apple not surviving as a company? When the stock went down to around $13 a share? I wonder if there were many folks then who "cut their losses" and sold apple vs ones that bought more. Or like me (kick myself a little) that didn't buy because I'm a fund person.

[Boho]

Quote:

Originally Posted by easysurfer You are a good sport taking our kidding. Okay, here's a question to you as a "stock picker". Wouldn't want you to divulge any picking secrets , but how do you decide when to cut your losses or hold on on a stock? Remember years back when there was talk about Apple not surviving as a company? When the stock went down to around $13 a share? I wonder if there were many folks then who "cut their losses" and sold apple vs ones that bought more. Or like me (kick myself a little) that didn't buy because I'm a fund person.

I'll sell to cut my losses if there's decent indication that the price will drop and maintain the dropped price, like if there's new competition or a regulatory change or war or something. I'll also sell if there's a better deal.

I don't do research like Warren Buffett but I read the transcript of a conference call. It sounded like when oil prices go a certain way more small oil companies pop up and compete, so maybe that happened. But it already happened and I bought after the price significantly dropped and the last oil news was pretty neutral and the company looks strong (and it's just a game) so I'm holding.

[easysurfer]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Boho I'll sell to cut my losses if there's decent indication that the price will drop and maintain the dropped price, like if there's new competition or a regulatory change or war or something. I'll also sell if there's a better deal. I don't do research like Warren Buffett but I read the transcript of a conference call. It sounded like when oil prices go a certain way more small oil companies pop up and compete, so maybe that happened. But it already happened and I bought after the price significantly dropped and the last oil news was pretty neutral and the company looks strong (and it's just a game) so I'm holding.

Though I have no real interest in going away from my passive investing strategy and start stock picking on my own, your approach to when to cut your losses actually sounds rational and not based on emotion alone.

[Boho]

My stock is up over 14% so far today but "Aegean Marine Petroleum Network Inc. (ANW) Ex-Dividend Date Scheduled for June 02, 2017." I hope Investopedia handles that properly.

[easysurfer]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Boho My stock is up over 14% so far today but "Aegean Marine Petroleum Network Inc. (ANW) Ex-Dividend Date Scheduled for June 02, 2017." I hope Investopedia handles that properly.

Good thing you didn't panic.