Join Early Retirement Today
Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 09-24-2023, 09:49 PM   #21
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 2,835
Quote:
Originally Posted by COcheesehead View Post
The market is banking on earnings growth to keep it propped up. If earnings donít keep pace, we could be looking at another bad market Ď20, Ď22 and TBD.

S&P 500 was up 16%+ in 2020. Iíd take that any day.
__________________
Eat, Drink and Be Merry.
tulak is offline   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Old 09-24-2023, 09:58 PM   #22
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Jun 2016
Location: Colorado
Posts: 8,971
Quote:
Originally Posted by tulak View Post
S&P 500 was up 16%+ in 2020. I’d take that any day.
‘20’s returns were eaten in ‘22.
COcheesehead is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-24-2023, 10:57 PM   #23
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Oct 2021
Posts: 468
Are stocks expensive - as compared to ?

About 7 months ago, was Appleís stock expensive at $125/share? What about a couple months later when it hit $150/share? What about when it almost hit $200 last month? Since itís dropped to $175 or so recently, does that mean itís cheap now or that it was too expensive last month when it almost hit $200?

Point is if youíre a long term investor then it doesnít matter. If youíre a swing or day trader then this forum is probably not the right venue for those types of questions. Iíve spent the better part of a year (part time) developing my own algo day trading bots which have significantly outperformed my long term portfolio because the bots trade short and long throughout the day and always pull out before the session ends.
RetiredAt49 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-24-2023, 11:06 PM   #24
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Jun 2016
Location: Colorado
Posts: 8,971
Quote:
Originally Posted by RetiredAt49 View Post
Are stocks expensive - as compared to ?

About 7 months ago, was Appleís stock expensive at $125/share? What about a couple months later when it hit $150/share? What about when it almost hit $200 last month? Since itís dropped to $175 or so recently, does that mean itís cheap now or that it was too expensive last month when it almost hit $200?

Point is if youíre a long term investor then it doesnít matter. If youíre a swing or day trader then this forum is probably not the right venue for those types of questions. Iíve spent the better part of a year (part time) developing my own algo day trading bots which have significantly outperformed my long term portfolio because the bots trade short and long throughout the day and always pull out before the session ends.
COcheesehead is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-24-2023, 11:45 PM   #25
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 2,835
Quote:
Originally Posted by COcheesehead View Post
Ď20ís returns were eaten in Ď22.

After a 26%+ gain in 2021? Or the 28%+ gain in 2019?

Idk about you, but Iím up nicely compared to where I was a few years ago, even after 2022, with an equity allocation of 85%+.

Down years happen. There are more up years than down years and the last decade has been phenomenal.
__________________
Eat, Drink and Be Merry.
tulak is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-24-2023, 11:54 PM   #26
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Jun 2016
Location: Colorado
Posts: 8,971
Quote:
Originally Posted by tulak View Post
After a 26%+ gain in 2021? Or the 28%+ gain in 2019?

Idk about you, but I’m up nicely compared to where I was a few years ago, even after 2022, with an equity allocation of 85%+.

Down years happen. There are more up years than down years and the last decade has been phenomenal.
What’s your point? 2020’s gains evaporated in ‘22. That’s what I said. Stay on topic.
COcheesehead is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-25-2023, 12:33 AM   #27
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 2,835
Quote:
Originally Posted by COcheesehead View Post
Whatís your point? 2020ís gains evaporated in Ď22. Thatís what I said. Stay on topic.

No, they did not. But believe what you want.

https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/...ocation1_1=100
__________________
Eat, Drink and Be Merry.
tulak is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-25-2023, 06:11 PM   #28
Full time employment: Posting here.
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
Posts: 560
Shiller CAPE 10 ratio is a reasonably good predictor of future stock returns over long periods of time (20-30 years).

Carefully note the two caveats in the above sentence.

This is why, while I have some sympathy for using it as an AA ratio adjustment mechanism, our own portfolio has not used it. Even though it has additional attraction when SORR is high (as we are now).
__________________
TickTock Rule Of Finance - heavily discount any promises of money/benefits to be paid to you in the future

"I've traded love for pennies, sold my soul for less" -Jim Croce, Age
TickTock is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-25-2023, 06:28 PM   #29
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Dec 2016
Posts: 1,278
Quote:
Originally Posted by TickTock View Post
Shiller CAPE 10 ratio is a reasonably good predictor of future stock returns over long periods of time (20-30 years).

Do you have a source that confirms that?
__________________
Retired 1/6/2017 at 50 years old
Immensely grateful


ďThe most important quality for an investor is temperament, not intellect.ĒóWarren Buffett
FREE866 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-25-2023, 06:28 PM   #30
Full time employment: Posting here.
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
Posts: 560
Quote:
Originally Posted by COcheesehead
Whatís your point? 2020ís gains evaporated in Ď22. Thatís what I said. Stay on topic.
Quote:
Originally Posted by tulak View Post
No, they did not. But believe what you want.

https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/...ocation1_1=100
I think you two are talking past each other. From tulak's link above:
  • 12/31/2019 $10,000
  • 12/31/2020 $12,103
  • 12/31/2021 $15,209
  • 12/31/2022 $12,242

So yes, the $2,103 2020 gain was erased by the 2022 $2,967 loss. And the 2020 plus 2021 gains were almost erased by the 2022 loss ($139 difference).

What's the point? That stocks are more volatile that bonds? That over long periods of time, stocks tend to outperform bonds? [Both of those statements are demonstratably true.] Something else?
__________________
TickTock Rule Of Finance - heavily discount any promises of money/benefits to be paid to you in the future

"I've traded love for pennies, sold my soul for less" -Jim Croce, Age
TickTock is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-25-2023, 06:30 PM   #31
Full time employment: Posting here.
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
Posts: 560
Quote:
Originally Posted by FREE866 View Post
Do you you a source that confirms that?
I'll need to get access to the primary source (I'm working away from home right now), but memory says Burton Malkiel's A Random Walk Down Wall Street has that data. But it could be somewhere else.

[Edit] If anyone else on the forums can assist with confirming or denying/identifying the primary source, I'd be grateful. Still juggling a lot of items as I'm not (yet!) retired[/Edit]
__________________
TickTock Rule Of Finance - heavily discount any promises of money/benefits to be paid to you in the future

"I've traded love for pennies, sold my soul for less" -Jim Croce, Age
TickTock is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-26-2023, 05:02 AM   #32
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
target2019's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2008
Location: On a hill in the Pine Barrens
Posts: 9,623
Quote:
Originally Posted by freedom2022 View Post
Even though I am in the market over two decades, I am still not a sophisticated investor. I look at simple overall measure of the market: Shiller PE ratio and S&P 500.

S&P 500 reached highest ever in late 2021/ early 2022. Shiller PE ratio reached second highest about the same time. They both kept going down until Fall 2022. Then, S&P 500 kept going up fast until July 2023, however Shiller PE ratio not so much.

Looks like the market is very optimistic about interest rate will go down soon.

Any thought?
Quote:
The P/E 10 ratio is calculated as follows:*take the annual EPS of an equity index, such as the S&P 500, for the past 10 years. Adjust these earnings for inflation using the consumer price index (CPI)óthat is, adjust past earnings to today's dollars. Take the average of these real EPS figures over the 10 years. Divide the current level of the S&P 500 by the 10-year average EPS number to get the P/E 10 ratio or CAPE ratio.
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p...r%20PE%20ratio.

I think your takeway might be that interest rates went up, so now the media is filled with guessing about when rates will be trimmed.
target2019 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-26-2023, 08:50 AM   #33
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
DrRoy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2015
Location: Michigan
Posts: 4,862
From Fed comments, I donít think interest rates will go down soon.
__________________
"The mountains are calling, and I must go." John Muir
DrRoy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-26-2023, 09:10 AM   #34
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Koolau's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Leeward Oahu
Posts: 17,543
Quote:
Originally Posted by target2019 View Post
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p...r%20PE%20ratio.

I think your takeway might be that interest rates went up, so now the media is filled with guessing about when rates will be trimmed.

Doing what they do best. Speculating.
__________________
Ko'olau's Law -

Anything which can be used can be misused. Anything which can be misused will be.
Koolau is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-26-2023, 10:46 AM   #35
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Posts: 1,633
I don't know if they're currently overpriced or not, but I think there's a decent chance they will be higher 5, 10, 15 years from now.

I'm "trying" not to be a market timer. I did that in 2020 and failed miserably.
PatrickA5 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-26-2023, 12:39 PM   #36
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Koolau's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Leeward Oahu
Posts: 17,543
Quote:
Originally Posted by PatrickA5 View Post
I don't know if they're currently overpriced or not, but I think there's a decent chance they will be higher 5, 10, 15 years from now.

I'm "trying" not to be a market timer. I did that in 2020 and failed miserably.

Heh, heh, haven't we all?


None of us knows our future, but "actuarially" some of us may not have 5, 10 or 15 years. (I'd be 91 at 15 years.) Ghaaaacckkkk!



I hope you have many years to see if you chose wisely. Of course, YMMV.
__________________
Ko'olau's Law -

Anything which can be used can be misused. Anything which can be misused will be.
Koolau is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-26-2023, 01:19 PM   #37
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
target2019's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2008
Location: On a hill in the Pine Barrens
Posts: 9,623
Quote:
Originally Posted by DrRoy View Post
From Fed comments, I donít think interest rates will go down soon.
Ran across this article. Perhaps it has meaning, perhaps not.

https://www.morningstar.com/economy/...e-down-sharply

Quote:
Despite Powellís hawkish tilt, we see growth slowing and inflation falling enough to merit sharply lower rates.
So, they predict a more agressive rate-cutting than recent hawkish Fed comments.
target2019 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-29-2023, 02:45 PM   #38
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Koolau's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Leeward Oahu
Posts: 17,543
Quote:
Originally Posted by target2019 View Post
Ran across this article. Perhaps it has meaning, perhaps not.

https://www.morningstar.com/economy/...e-down-sharply



So, they predict a more agressive rate-cutting than recent hawkish Fed comments.

IOW we really don't know - as usual. Being "inscrutable" has some advantages. YMMV of course.
__________________
Ko'olau's Law -

Anything which can be used can be misused. Anything which can be misused will be.
Koolau is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-30-2023, 10:20 AM   #39
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
target2019's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2008
Location: On a hill in the Pine Barrens
Posts: 9,623
Quote:
Originally Posted by Koolau View Post
IOW we really don't know - as usual. Being "inscrutable" has some advantages. YMMV of course.
We do know some things. We can take into account past lessons and data, and believe we know about tomorrow. In the strict sense, anything can happen, but we don't really live that way. Hell, you'd stay in the basement all day!
target2019 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-03-2023, 04:45 PM   #40
Full time employment: Posting here.
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
Posts: 560
Quote:
Originally Posted by FREE866 View Post
Do you have a source that confirms that?
Still don't have Malkiel's book in front of me, but here's an article by Larry Swedroe (who I hold in high esteem):

https://www.evidenceinvestor.com/the...-not-abuse-it/

It provides valuable information, but not market-timing information.
__________________
TickTock Rule Of Finance - heavily discount any promises of money/benefits to be paid to you in the future

"I've traded love for pennies, sold my soul for less" -Jim Croce, Age
TickTock is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Dividend stocks vs Growth stocks davidsawallisch FIRE and Money 28 11-29-2019 01:17 PM
Similar Stocks The simple and easy way to find similar ETFs, stocks and funds eroscott FIRE and Money 6 05-21-2015 09:51 AM
individual stocks vs index funds,stocks poor choice mathjak107 FIRE and Money 31 09-12-2006 01:12 AM
How Expensive is the S&P, Really Craig FIRE and Money 71 06-18-2005 10:21 PM
I'm an idiot/expensive lesson laurence FIRE and Money 32 04-03-2005 08:21 PM

» Quick Links

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 09:13 PM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.