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Old 10-12-2023, 04:23 AM   #41
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Buying good companies near their 52 week low is a great way to get a discount, and lower your cost basis.
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Stocks are expensive?
Old 10-12-2023, 02:03 PM   #42
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Stocks are expensive?

Quote:
Originally Posted by SunGuy View Post
Buying good companies near their 52 week low is a great way to get a discount, and lower your cost basis.


I have backtested thousands of swing trading strategies and “buying a good company’s 52 week low” doesn’t generate/yield great returns (compared to many other strategies). You are better off purchasing a ticker whose price is approaching a 52 week high and buying dips (e.g. using various technical indicators like RSI, MFI, etc.) but YMMV. My algorithms have mostly focused on intraday but
I’ve recently broadened into swing trading too.
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Old 10-16-2023, 07:11 PM   #43
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I figured I'd throw this in here, from David Sherman.
Crossing Bridge Advisors.
https://blog.crossingbridgefunds.com...no-fat-pitches
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Old 10-16-2023, 07:45 PM   #44
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Originally Posted by GhostofTomJoad View Post
I figured I'd throw this in here, from David Sherman.
Crossing Bridge Advisors.
https://blog.crossingbridgefunds.com...no-fat-pitches
Interesting read. This is the advantage professional management of bond portfolios has over indexing.

David K. Sherman manages River Park Short Term High yield which I owned with great success during the low rate years.

I have a lot of respect for him.
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Old 10-16-2023, 07:49 PM   #45
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RetiredAt49 View Post
I have backtested thousands of swing trading strategies and “buying a good company’s 52 week low” doesn’t generate/yield great returns (compared to many other strategies). You are better off purchasing a ticker whose price is approaching a 52 week high and buying dips (e.g. using various technical indicators like RSI, MFI, etc.) but YMMV. My algorithms have mostly focused on intraday but
I’ve recently broadened into swing trading too.
His strategy is not a swing trading strategy. Apples and Oranges.
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Old 10-16-2023, 08:58 PM   #46
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Even though I am in the market over two decades, I am still not a sophisticated investor. I look at simple overall measure of the market: Shiller PE ratio and S&P 500.



S&P 500 reached highest ever in late 2021/ early 2022. Shiller PE ratio reached second highest about the same time. They both kept going down until Fall 2022. Then, S&P 500 kept going up fast until July 2023, however Shiller PE ratio not so much.



Looks like the market is very optimistic about interest rate will go down soon.



Any thought?
Well Shiller PE is not valuable for timing the market.

2nd, I do see stocks as expensive but they are likely to rally if earnings begin to grow and more when the rate top is understood to be in. Probably soon.
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Old 10-16-2023, 09:00 PM   #47
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I guess it depends on your definition of "soon". (Sort of like what is the definition of "IS".) [emoji23] Okay, I won't go there.

Listening to the Fed this week it sounded to me like rates may stay this high or higher, for longer than they anticipated. So if "soon" is late 2024 or even 2025, then probably yes. If soon is this year, then NO.
The Fed has no idea what rates will do beyond the next meeting.

If unemployment begins a sustained rise they will be cutting despite what they say.
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Old 10-21-2023, 05:15 AM   #48
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Piper Sandler and BOA analysts believe the S&P 500 will close 14% higher than it is today by year’s end because 30% of the S&P 500 companies are “oversold” (meaning their RSI is less than 30).

If I were home, I’d run this analysis through a backtest to see if it has historical merit.

Here’s the article: https://fortune.com/2023/10/20/sp-50...-sandler-says/
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Old 10-24-2023, 02:40 PM   #49
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From Fed comments, I don’t think interest rates will go down soon.
True, but the Fed has a habit of getting it very very wrong in both directions. They are usually chasing the market, not driving it in any reasonable way. Their job is just to make us think they are in control... so we don't all jump out the passengers side window.
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Old 10-24-2023, 11:28 PM   #50
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Originally Posted by EvrClrx311 View Post
True, but the Fed has a habit of getting it very very wrong in both directions. They are usually chasing the market, not driving it in any reasonable way. Their job is just to make us think they are in control... so we don't all jump out the passengers side window.

If their j*b is to make us think they are in control, it ain't w*rking.

I'll stay in my seat, all the same. Road rash along with inflation is just adding injury to insult.
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Old 10-25-2023, 07:40 AM   #51
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Talking head mentioned the average pe of the S&P was in line with the 10yr average so it's "not overvalued". I just don't think future earnings growth will be substantially more (maybe less) so expansion may be limited... Or you can get 5% in guaranteed stuff.

Not to mention student loans starting up again & rates slowing things
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