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09-17-2008, 09:53 AM
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#21
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Oct 2003
Posts: 5,105
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Quote:
Originally Posted by al_bundy
if you look at the chart over a year the MACD looks like a reverse head and shoulders and building a right shoulder. the MACD histogram from march to now also looks like a bullish divergence. full stochastics are looking bullish since mid July while the market is lower, another bullish divergence.
weekly 3 year chart of the sp500 is also showing bullish divergences on the macd and stochastics. very similar to 2002. i don't think it's the bottom, but i think we'll see a rally from here
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I think you only apply "H&S" to price no other indicators.
The MACD is below the 0 line and pointing down on the daily and looks flat on the weekly - some hope?
I don't do Fib. (or Elliot wave).
The 1165 (mine 1150) number is close to the resistance in 2004 and support in 2005. So that could be considered an important area.
The other support areas 1100 & 1050 but those are really weak so there is a lot of air below 1150
__________________
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09-17-2008, 10:00 AM
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#22
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 1,543
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i've noticed the chart pattern play out in the technicals as well
check out a 1 year chart of the SP500 and you'll see a H&S around the time of the March rally. the low point was at 1256 SP in February and the higher low came in a month later at a 1256 SP and the left shoulder was around late november 2007
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09-17-2008, 10:38 AM
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#23
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Losing my whump
Posts: 22,708
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My magic 8 ball says "Not right now, ask again later."
__________________
Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful. Just another form of "buy low, sell high" for those who have trouble with things. This rule is not universal. Do not buy a 1973 Pinto because everyone else is afraid of it.
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09-17-2008, 10:55 AM
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#24
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 12,483
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I'd put all my stock picks in the hands of CFB's Magic 8 Ball before I start buying into technical analysis for buyin points.......
Of course, if one can eloquently regale me with Elliot Wave theory or stochastics, I might get all warm and fuzzy........
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Consult with your own advisor or representative. My thoughts should not be construed as investment advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results (love that one).......:)
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09-17-2008, 11:13 AM
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#25
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 1,543
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stochastics, macd and others are either averages or simple statistical formulas to measure the stock or market index price over a period of time. sometimes you get what are called divergences when the tech trend goes against the market trend. rule is if tech trend is up and market is down it's a buy signal. if the market trend it up and tech trend is down then it's a sell signal. Neither is 100%, but pretty close to 100% accurate. and depending on which you use there is some lag, sometimes months. different technical formulas are used for different time periods.
elliot wave is simple. everthing moves in 5 waves. 3 up and 2 down or the opposite i think. now if you can only figure out how to read it, although Robert Prechter and his team seem to be pretty good. i read their newsletter on safehaven with a week or so lag because i get it free that way and don't want to pay. they are very accurate in their predictions
ultimately it's a mathematical way to show mass psychology of greed, fear and a few smart people
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09-17-2008, 02:20 PM
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#26
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 2,840
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Milledgeville has fallen will Swainsboro hold, the rebels are not putting up much of a fight! Right down to about 1150 today. The the technical analysis buyers seem to be quickly swamped by sellers. If it goes under 1150, the TA crowd is not in for the long term and would add to the route. The suspense of the action is killing me....
This has nothing to do with technical analysis but as the 10 year returns on statements go to negative along with the 5 year and 1 year October could be a very poor month and a month for capitulation. 10 years ago today the S&P was as 1020. Five years ago 1036.
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But then what do I really know?
https://www.early-retirement.org/forums/f44/why-i-believe-we-are-about-to-embark-on-a-historic-bull-market-run-101268.html
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09-17-2008, 03:08 PM
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#27
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 465
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Up unitil the mid 90's, the average annual growth of the S&P 500 appears to be 6.5% to 7%. Assuming a 7% growth rate, isn't the S&P currently priced about where it should be, relative to the January 1995 price?
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09-18-2008, 11:05 AM
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#28
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 2,840
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I notice that once the market broke 1150 as I expected today it is falling away quickly, despite the Fed's very aggresive action with the 200Billion market move.
I do believe far from Dex's and Al's analysis being useless data points, I do think they are important and to ignore this information, even if you think as I did that they will not hold, you are reducing the ability to make money in the market. The market showed it thought it was important as it stopped there yesterday at Al's and Dex's the day before and rapidly in both cases fell when it failed to hold.
And with this I look for 1150 to be where any rally should stop in the short term.
__________________
But then what do I really know?
https://www.early-retirement.org/forums/f44/why-i-believe-we-are-about-to-embark-on-a-historic-bull-market-run-101268.html
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09-18-2008, 01:16 PM
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#29
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 2,840
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As it turns out bottomed through and up and out! Wow!
__________________
But then what do I really know?
https://www.early-retirement.org/forums/f44/why-i-believe-we-are-about-to-embark-on-a-historic-bull-market-run-101268.html
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09-18-2008, 01:34 PM
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#30
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 1,543
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now all the naked short sellers will probably be in a mad dash to cover their bets and will push the market higher
on the downside research proves that 90% of the big up days like this happen in bear markets so don't be surprised if we drop a lot lower next year
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09-18-2008, 02:49 PM
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#31
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Losing my whump
Posts: 22,708
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So I guess all the analysis didnt help predict the swing up. Lets hope for a replay tomorrow.
__________________
Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful. Just another form of "buy low, sell high" for those who have trouble with things. This rule is not universal. Do not buy a 1973 Pinto because everyone else is afraid of it.
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09-19-2008, 04:22 PM
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#32
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Dryer sheet wannabe
Join Date: Sep 2008
Location: Wollongong, Australia
Posts: 20
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Technical Analysis is for those who can't figure Numbers and do proper research on companies. The great thing about this type of analysis there is never any wrong situation, it can always be explained away by the graphs!
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09-19-2008, 04:42 PM
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#33
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 899
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dex
There is a theory that the past rise from 2000 was a bear market rally and that this bear market will last into the twenty teens -2018 similar length to the rise.
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Whose theory?
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03-05-2009, 11:26 AM
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#34
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 1,543
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we're getting close to a bottom here, question is if it's the real bottom or are we going to go lower in a year or so like in 1929 - 1932
i've read 2 schools of thought on this. first is that this is like 1929-1932 and we're going to have a big rally for 2009 and then go lower in 2010. second is that this bear market is like 1937 - 1938
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03-05-2009, 01:28 PM
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#35
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Dryer sheet wannabe
Join Date: Sep 2008
Location: Wollongong, Australia
Posts: 20
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"we're getting close to a bottom here" You might be right ? However trying to pick it may lead to up or down. It is why I like buying good well researched companies and try and listen to the noise that is against popular thinking as it is sometimes right. I thought the US would crash in 2006 due to the Housing crisis, but I didn't think it would effect the rest of the world like it has, many did I wish I'd had the foresight to just listen a bit harder.
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03-05-2009, 02:01 PM
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#36
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 1,543
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i've also read that this crisis is very close to the Panic of 1873 which resulted in the Long Depression in the US which was worse than the 1929 Great Depression.
in the 1860's and early 1870's there was a housing bubble in Europe that spilled over to the US which was a developing nation at that time.
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03-06-2009, 01:27 PM
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#37
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Dryer sheet wannabe
Join Date: Sep 2008
Location: Wollongong, Australia
Posts: 20
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Human nature we try to find similarities, so we feel we are in control. I think the reality was that for some reason we thought we had to do nothing to be productive ! Buy a house and watch it go up, buy stocks and watch them go up, create debt paper and watch it go up. Now until we find real value and start producing something useful again we'll be in the Sh**t. So for me I'm after companies that produce useful stuff, pay dividends , and don't have debt. I believe some day these will go up, trying to bottom pick is very hard.
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