Tesla for the long run?

[OldShooter]

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Originally Posted by RetiredAtThirty-eight ... zooming to new all-time highs and reaching a market cap of 2 trillion, 3 trillion and more after words.

Considering that the top three stock mutual funds (VFIAX, SPY, FXAIX) in their entirety total a paltry $1trn and the entire US GDP is only $20trn, that will be quite a thing to see. Maybe Tesla will apply for statehood; after all, the GDP of California is about $3trn and of Texas, less than $2trn. Or maybe it could join the UN? GDP of Great Britain is about $3trn. Aren't big numbers fun?

[RetiredAtThirty-eight]

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Originally Posted by OldShooter Considering that the top three stock mutual funds (VFIAX, SPY, FXAIX) in their entirety total a paltry $1trn and the entire US GDP is only $20trn, that will be quite a thing to see. Maybe Tesla will apply for statehood; after all, the GDP of California is about $3trn and of Texas, less than $2trn. Or maybe it could join the UN? GDP of Great Britain is about $3trn. Aren't big numbers fun?

Well, it's not going to happen over-night and you can bet the GDP's of both Texas and California are set to grow. However, the market cap is a forward-looking metric so most of the valuation will be baked into the company before the factories that enable that kind of production are all complete.

Tesla is aiming for 10 factories the size of their Nevada Gigafactory (or bigger). Both the Texas and Germany Gigafactories are scheduled to be bigger than the Nevada factory.

I am looking forward to watching our cities become cleaner and quieter and America re-gaining some of the lost ground as manufacturing jobs are brought back with the rebuilding of America's energy infrastructure.

Out with the old, in with the new.

[NW-Bound]

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Originally Posted by OldShooter Considering that the top three stock mutual funds (VFIAX, SPY, FXAIX) in their entirety total a paltry $1trn and the entire US GDP is only $20trn, that will be quite a thing to see. Maybe Tesla will apply for statehood; after all, the GDP of California is about $3trn and of Texas, less than $2trn. Or maybe it could join the UN? GDP of Great Britain is about $3trn. Aren't big numbers fun?

The UN? Even banana republics are in the UN. That's nothing.

I am thinking about Tesla claiming the planet of Mars. Now, that's something!

[MRG]

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Originally Posted by NW-Bound The UN? Even banana republics are in the UN. That's nothing. I am thinking about Tesla claiming the planet of Mars. Now, that's something!

I thought Musk already did.

[NW-Bound]

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Originally Posted by MRG I thought Musk already did.

Darn! I miss seeing a photo of him planting a flag on Mars. Gotta go search the Web.

[RetiredAtThirty-eight]

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Originally Posted by ownyourfuture I bought 20 shares at $227.00 in May 2019, & was afraid I was overpaying I'd like to take some off the table, but due to health care insurance income limitations, I'll probably just let it ride. As for the OP's question: If someone put a gun to my head & told me I had to give them my opinion, I'd have to say that anyone buying today $2,236.99 +83.82 (+3.89%) might very well experience this sometime soon.

Actually, that is how my head feels as I try to understand the big numbers on my brokerage account statement.

Price was $2,236.99 when you posted that in August. Current price (adjusted for the 5 for 1 split) is $3,850 for a gain of over $1,600 per share!

[RetiredAtThirty-eight]

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Originally Posted by MRG I thought Musk already did.

You people are funny!

I don't think SpaceX is scheduled to visit Mars until 2026 but there is a small chance it could be accelerated to 2024. I think the orbital mechanics of Earth and Mars only line up every couple of years for the best trip efficiency. It takes somewhere in the neighborhood of 3 months to get there and they don't want to increase the length of the trip by launching at non-optimum times.

Yes, they will probably plant an American flag there - no, it won't mean SpaceX is claiming ownership for America. It will just be a symbolic human achievement.

[MRG]

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Originally Posted by RetiredAtThirty-eight You people are funny! I don't think SpaceX is scheduled to visit Mars until 2026 but there is a small chance it could be accelerated to 2024. I think the orbital mechanics of Earth and Mars only line up every couple of years for the best trip efficiency. It takes somewhere in the neighborhood of 3 months to get there and they don't want to increase the length of the trip by launching at non-optimum times. Yes, they will probably plant an American flag there - no, it won't mean SpaceX is claiming ownership for America. It will just be a symbolic human achievement.

This is what I was semi joking about.

https://rtd.rt.com/stories/law-on-mars/

There is a law on Mars but there’s no one there able to ensure they’re obeyed. International treaties set the rules for space and how nations should act on Mars and beyond.*However, the treaties say nothing about private companies, like SpaceX, which is looking to start commercial flights and open space for civil exploration. While the space law bodies are keeping their eyes shut, Elon Musk’s tech-giant, SpaceX says it’s writing its constitution for Mars and doesn’t intend to comply with treaties signed by the US, when it comes to the Red Planet

[RetiredAtThirty-eight]

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Originally Posted by MRG This is what I was semi joking about. https://rtd.rt.com/stories/law-on-mars/ There is a law on Mars but there’s no one there able to ensure they’re obeyed. International treaties set the rules for space and how nations should act on Mars and beyond.*However, the treaties say nothing about private companies, like SpaceX, which is looking to start commercial flights and open space for civil exploration. While the space law bodies are keeping their eyes shut, Elon Musk’s tech-giant, SpaceX says it’s writing its constitution for Mars and doesn’t intend to comply with treaties signed by the US, when it comes to the Red Planet

Thanks! This just keeps getting more interesting! Humankind has never even visited another planet, let alone set up a settlement on one!

I would welcome an entire planet with a new constitution designed from scratch. Elon Musk is a pretty smart and humble guy. He recognizes the need for sensible regulation for the benefit of all and the system as a whole, but really frowns upon legalistic and bureaucratic red tape that tends to build up over time.

It should encourage as much freedom as is compatible with good governance.

[tulak]

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Originally Posted by RetiredAtThirty-eight I understand your valuation concerns and, if I thought they were valid, I would sell all my TSLA shares immediately. You really need more than a superficial understanding of the company to understand why the company will likely be worth many times it's current nearly 700 billion dollar valuation by 2025. You can research this elsewhere but, in a nutshell, Tesla is developing into a lean, mean, growth machine with growing margins. Do not look towards the legacy auto companies to determine what Tesla profit margins will be because Tesla does things dramatically different and the margin growth is actually accelerating past the legacy manufacturers, even with much smaller manufacturing volume. No one can make a competitive vehicle offering similar functionality and performance and sell it for the same price or less. That's why they can sell every car they make as soon as they make it. There is no reason to believe this is about to change. Tesla is a good 5 years ahead of the next closest competitor in terms of how much value they can offer. Currently, the energy side of the business is of minor significance in terms of revenue and profits relative to the auto side of the business but that is starting to change quickly as the cost curve of solar and battery storage drop into the economical zone as evidenced by very high growth rates in recent quarters. Watch for Q4 2020 earnings and the full year report to be released sometime around January 20th and see how quickly the energy side of the business is growing. The people bidding up Tesla shares into the stratosphere are not dreamers in a mania (those people don't have enough investable assets to bid it up to $700 billion in the first place). The big buyers are huge hundreds of millions and multi-billion dollar funds run by seasoned pros. Yes, it's possible for TSLA to have a dramatic correction but that's not going to stop it from zooming to new all-time highs and reaching a market cap of 2 trillion, 3 trillion and more after words.

Tesla makes a great car, but they aren't the only making EVs. Tesla's early advantage might or might not last. I'll pass on arguing that point and only point out that there is competition:

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Electric car sales jump to record 54% market share in Norway in 2020 but Tesla loses top spot

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/el...ot-11609857931

And yes, they are investing in the energy business. I suspect they'll be successful there too, but there will also be competition.

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Originally Posted by RetiredAtThirty-eight That's about right, just under $700 billion valuation. I expect it to get to 5 trillion before 2030 and to be the first company to reach a market cap of 3 trillion. That's assuming it's not split up into multiple companies before that happens.

So 5 trillion at 2030 is an annual return of 24%. That would be impressive.

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Originally Posted by OldShooter Considering that the top three stock mutual funds (VFIAX, SPY, FXAIX) in their entirety total a paltry $1trn and the entire US GDP is only $20trn, that will be quite a thing to see. Maybe Tesla will apply for statehood; after all, the GDP of California is about $3trn and of Texas, less than $2trn. Or maybe it could join the UN? GDP of Great Britain is about $3trn. Aren't big numbers fun?

And that's the crux of it for me. Musk has done amazing things and I hope it continues, but I can't get past the idea that Tesla is hitting a ceiling. Law of large numbers and all that.

[RetiredAtThirty-eight]

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Originally Posted by tulak And that's the crux of it for me. Musk has done amazing things and I hope it continues, but I can't get past the idea that Tesla is hitting a ceiling. Law of large numbers and all that.

Everyone has different mental stumbling blocks so that's not unusual at all. Fortunately, Musk doesn't recognize imaginary laws, only real ones. And he seems very adept with large numbers and being able to scale just about anything that makes sense to scale so I'm not concerned about that.

He is already the most important and successful industrialist of the 21st century and I think the story will only become more established from here. It will make what we have seen so far look like humble beginnings and people are just now beginning to recognize this in numbers.

[OldShooter]

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Originally Posted by tulak ... So 5 trillion at 2030 is an annual return of 24%. That would be impressive. ...

Yes. Travel at twice the speed of light would be equally impressive and about as likely.

Let's observe that a mature $5T market cap company might be expected to earn 10% on stockholders' investment. That's $0.5T or $500B. US domestic market for cars and light trucks is, total, roughly 20M units per year. So divide $500B by $20M and you get $25,000. Thus, to be worth $5B at a 10% cap rate, Tesla would need 100% market share -- selling every single car and truck sold in the US -- and pricing that yielded a profit of $25,000 per car.

Even at a paltry market cap of $1trn and cap rate of 10%, they would need 100% US market share and a net profit of $5,000 per car and truck. For comparison, Toyota's worldwide net per car is less than half that.

If course if they instead capture 100% of the world car market, the required profit would fall to one-fifth, possibly an achievable number at a $1trn market cap. So that's the answer, the sky's-the-limit projection must be 100% world market penetration for Tesla. World domination in our lifetimes!

Right now? Tesla penetration of the US market is about 2.5%. World market? Just over 1/2 percent.

I'm not sure that the Worldcom and JDSUniphase zealots were this optimistic. Maybe.

[tulak]

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Originally Posted by RetiredAtThirty-eight Everyone has different mental stumbling blocks so that's not unusual at all. Fortunately, Musk doesn't recognize imaginary laws, only real ones. And he seems very adept with large numbers and being able to scale just about anything that makes sense to scale so I'm not concerned about that. He is already the most important and successful industrialist of the 21st century and I think the story will only become more established from here. It will make what we have seen so far look like humble beginnings and people are just now beginning to recognize this in numbers.

It's a disservice to Musk to associate Tesla with all of his other ventures. I think this is done too often. I wouldn't be surprised if people buying Tesla think they're also getting in on his other ventures.

I don't dispute that Musk is an amazing individual and believe that we have all benefited from his ability to take risk and pursue his vision in many fields. I'd buy SpaceX stock directly if I could and what he has accomplished there will take many, many years to be replicated by other governments or companies.

But what we are talking here is about Tesla and as far as I can tell, Tesla consists of two businesses: cars and energy (solar/batteries). I'm skeptical that Tesla is going to become a 5T company based on automobiles. The energy business can help, maybe? 5T is still a high threshold to hit.

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Originally Posted by OldShooter Let's observe that a mature $5T market cap company might be expected to earn 10% on stockholders' investment. That's $0.5T or $500B. US domestic market for cars and light trucks is, total, roughly 20M units per year. So divide $500B by $20M and you get $25,000. Thus, to be worth $5B at a 10% cap rate, Tesla would need 100% market share -- selling every single car and truck sold in the US -- and pricing that yielded a profit of $25,000 per car. Even at a paltry market cap of $1trn and cap rate of 10%, they would need 100% US market share and a net profit of $5,000 per car and truck. For comparison, Toyota's worldwide net per car is less than half that. If course if they instead capture 100% of the world car market, the required profit would fall to one-fifth, possibly an achievable number at a $1trn market cap. So that's the answer, the sky's-the-limit projection must be 100% world market penetration for Tesla. World domination in our lifetimes!

And other car manufacturers are not going to wait for Tesla to take 100% of the market. This is already happening, as I pointed out in the Norway article I posted earlier. Sure, Tesla can take a large part of this market, but much like Apple, I think they will struggle to get beyond 50%+ market penetration, especially in more cost conscious markets.

Tesla doesn't have a monopoly on building cars or battery technology. The competition is there when they deem it's worthwhile, which is already starting to happen. Some car manufacturers might not make the transition successfully, but I suspect a majority of the big players will do just fine. And I'm sure there will also be new players in this field. I was curious, so did a quick google search and found:

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Nio shares have surged more than 1,400% over the last 12 months. Xpeng, whose P7 sedan is driving growth, has seen its shares surge more than 180% since the company's IPO in August. Li Auto shares are up more than 160% since the automaker's IPO in July. BYD's Hong Kong-listed shares have soared well over 400% in the last 12 months to record highs. Tesla, which joined the benchmark S&P 500 in December, has seen its shares climb more than 40% since a stock split in August.

https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/busi...s/2814318/?amp

Yep. Competition.

It'll be interesting to see how well Tesla can grow their energy business.

[RetiredAtThirty-eight]

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Originally Posted by OldShooter Yes. Travel at twice the speed of light would be equally impressive and about as likely.

That's your opinion and I don't see how it's any different from your previous opinion (last Winter) that Tesla was wildly over-valued at 1/10th the current price.

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Let's observe that a mature $5T market cap company might be expected to earn 10% on stockholders' investment. That's $0.5T or $500B. US domestic market for cars and light trucks is, total, roughly 20M units per year. So divide $500B by $20M and you get $25,000. Thus, to be worth $5B at a 10% cap rate, Tesla would need 100% market share -- selling every single car and truck sold in the US -- and pricing that yielded a profit of $25,000 per car. Even at a paltry market cap of $1trn and cap rate of 10%, they would need 100% US market share and a net profit of $5,000 per car and truck. For comparison, Toyota's worldwide net per car is less than half that. If course if they instead capture 100% of the world car market, the required profit would fall to one-fifth, possibly an achievable number at a $1trn market cap. So that's the answer, the sky's-the-limit projection must be 100% world market penetration for Tesla. World domination in our lifetimes! Right now? Tesla penetration of the US market is about 2.5%. World market? Just over 1/2 percent.

Treating Tesla as if they only have automotive sales as a source of growing revenues is the same mistake made by some of the Wall Street analysts that caused them to miss out on the best performing large cap stock of 2020. You are not the only one who didn't understand this and who missed out. Tesla is not just an automaker, and they have multiple growing revenue streams (one of them will likely dwarf auto revenues in a few years). You would know about these additional growing revenue streams had you had read their quarterly financial reports. They have a new financial statement coming out for Q4 2020 that will be released in two weeks. It will make the most sense if you study the existing financials to come up to speed beforehand. Once you do that you should be able to identify all of Tesla's revenue streams.

But it's looking like you might have already made up your mind and given your final answer: That it's impossible for Tesla to actually be worth their current market cap or continue to grow over the next decade.

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I'm not sure that the Worldcom and JDSUniphase zealots were this optimistic. Maybe.

I don't think it's wise to pick some failed high flyers to compare TSLA shareholders to. Using this method you will literally NEVER own a life-changing stock. I have owned generous amounts of 3 life-changing stocks through their most profitable growth phases. Microsoft, Qualcomm and Tesla. I've owned a few others that were similar but since they were earlier in my investing career, before I had built up my investable capital to a more substantial amount, I didn't make millions off them. Starbucks, Micron and a few others that people said were wildly over-valued early in their growth. Very profitable growth companies that I had to pay a premium for. And they didn't disappoint - that's how I earned enough money to go big into the later gorillas. You can make life-changing amounts of money by investing in growth - you just have to avoid the duds. Like the Worldcoms and JDSUniphases of the world.

You may find it interesting to know that I looked into JDUniphase fairly deeply back in the day and was not impressed with the risk/reward ratio. Sure, they were in the right industry at the right time but their market was much more dynamic and competitive than what I see with Tesla and EV's and Energy. Plus, I was not that impressed with their management. I never really understood all the noise about Worldcom either, it just wasn't my kind of stock so I never even did a close look.

I know you assume that high-flyers will probably go bankrupt but that's no way to do well in the stock market. That's why expert marksman are never afraid of the shot. Shooters that anticipate the explosion of the round are never very good shots. Respect the power of the gun but do not fear it. Stocks are the same way.

[RetiredAtThirty-eight]

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Originally Posted by tulak It's a disservice to Musk to associate Tesla with all of his other ventures. I think this is done too often. I wouldn't be surprised if people buying Tesla think they're also getting in on his other ventures.

Quality management is one of the most important things I look for in an investment. And Elon Musk is the CEO of Tesla. It is literally impossible to talk about Musk's management abilities without considering his other ventures.

If someone thinks they are getting a piece of SpaceX or Starlink or the Boring Company when they buy Tesla (beyond them having the same CEO), they have no business investing in individual stocks!

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I don't dispute that Musk is an amazing individual and believe that we have all benefited from his ability to take risk and pursue his vision in many fields. I'd buy SpaceX stock directly if I could and what he has accomplished there will take many, many years to be replicated by other governments or companies. But what we are talking here is about Tesla and as far as I can tell, Tesla consists of two businesses: cars and energy (solar/batteries). I'm skeptical that Tesla is going to become a 5T company based on automobiles. The energy business can help, maybe? 5T is still a high threshold to hit.

Since you respect Musk you might appreciate his take on the matter. He says Tesla is no less than 12 different start-up companies, all successful in his estimation.

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And other car manufacturers are not going to wait for Tesla to take 100% of the market. This is already happening, as I pointed out in the Norway article I posted earlier. Sure, Tesla can take a large part of this market, but much like Apple, I think they will struggle to get beyond 50%+ market penetration, especially in more cost conscious markets. Tesla doesn't have a monopoly on building cars or battery technology. The competition is there when they deem it's worthwhile, which is already starting to happen. Some car manufacturers might not make the transition successfully, but I suspect a majority of the big players will do just fine. And I'm sure there will also be new players in this field. I was curious, so did a quick google search and found: https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/busi...s/2814318/?amp Yep. Competition. It'll be interesting to see how well Tesla can grow their energy business.

Tesla doesn't need 100% or even 50% of the auto market to hit 5T market cap. Their energy business alone could easily grow larger than that. Electricity will be the new oil. That is the energy market that is ripe for disruption.

As for competition in the auto market, yes, Tesla welcomes it, especially if it's electric. Because most of their competition is currently powered by fossil fuels. That's right, every Tesla sold competes head-to-head with gasoline powered cars. And they compete very favorably which is why they are able to sell as many as they can make while the legacy automakers have millions in unsold inventory sitting on lots around the globe.

The competition is coming in 2017 is what we used to hear. The Chevy Bolt is going to wipe out Tesla. Then it was 2018. The Kia was going to kill Tesla. Then it was the phase-out of the EV tax credit. Tesla couldn't sell their cars without it. Then it was 2019. The Porche Taycan was going to eat Tesla's lunch. Then it was the Audi e-Tron. And on and on. Here we are, it's 2021 - where's the competition? The competition is always coming and they are always behind Tesla. None of them can make a car with the same capabilities at the same price point. And none of them can manufacture in the growing volumes Tesla does. Yet Tesla sells every mass market car they can produce, just as soon as they make it.

The competition is coming. The competition is coming.

[NW-Bound]

Tesla needs to get into bit coins in order to rule the universe.

Bit Coin just broke $40,000, and has a market value of $600 billion. It's all bits, and does not have production problems like you do with cars.

I remember seeing a tweet from Musk about bit coin, but forget what it was exactly.

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Originally Posted by RetiredAtThirty-eight ... Then it was the Audi e-Tron...

I just saw something on the Web about the e-Tron being the best selling EV in Norway. Tesla is 2nd. The 3rd is VW.

[RetiredAtThirty-eight]

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Originally Posted by NW-Bound Tesla needs to get into bit coins in order to rule the universe.

I learned a long time ago there is always going to be a better performing stock, at least for a short period of time, than the one you are in. I'm truly happy for bitcoin investors who are seeing their financial dreams come true. I just hope, for their sake, that bitcoin has some staying power. I can see the value Tesla has built but my vision is not so clear on bitcoin.

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Bit Coin just broke $40,000, and has a market value of $600 billion. It's all bits, and does not have production problems like you do with cars.

If Tesla has "production problems" with cars then I feel for GMC and Ford! I think you are reading too many FUD (fear, uncertainty and doubt) stories planted by people trying to slow Tesla down. Tesla's profit margins are some of the best in the business. As are their consumer satisfaction ratings. As are their safety ratings.

I have read some of the same stories you have but, a long time before Tesla even existed, I learned to seperate the "hit stories" from the real data. People are literally terrified of the threat Tesla poses to the old, inefficient way of doing things. Change is real, it really does happen and it tends to happen suddenly.

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I just saw something on the Web about the e-Tron being the best selling EV in Norway. Tesla is 2nd. The 3rd is VW.

A favorite technique of the FUD'sters is to pick sales data from a specific locale and a specific timeframe that can be used to distort the truth. And the truth is that, globally, the Model 3 has outsold the e-Tron by a massive amount! And the recently released Tesla Model Y is widely expected to outsell the Model 3 by a 2 to one margin. Audi is not even in the same league as Tesla when it comes to EV's. And Tesla makes around 10 times as much per each car sold. e-Tron has been heavily discounted just to move the relatively small amount produced.

But, it's true, if you search stories on this you will come up with at least a baker's dozen about Audi outselling Tesla in Norway during a short, cherry-picked timeframe. My job as an investor is to look past the FUD and find the truth. No one really cares how many are sold in Norway in a single quarter, they care how many are sold period.

When you know how to harness the power of all the FUD that's out there you will start making real money as an investor. There is not a lot of profit in journalism anymore so most stuff you read is designed to subtly (or not so subtly), mislead. If this were not true I never would have made TSLA my biggest position in 2019.

Live and learn.

[tulak]

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Originally Posted by RetiredAtThirty-eight Tesla is not just an automaker, and they have multiple growing revenue streams (one of them will likely dwarf auto revenues in a few years). You would know about these additional growing revenue streams had you had read their quarterly financial reports. They have a new financial statement coming out for Q4 2020 that will be released in two weeks. It will make the most sense if you study the existing financials to come up to speed beforehand. Once you do that you should be able to identify all of Tesla's revenue streams.

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Originally Posted by RetiredAtThirty-eight Since you respect Musk you might appreciate his take on the matter. He says Tesla is no less than 12 different start-up companies, all successful in his estimation.

I looked at their financials for Q3 2020 the other day. They have three revenue streams:

7.61B - Automotive revenue
0.58B - Energy generation and storage
0.58B - Services and other

What are the other revenue streams? And what are these 12 different start-ups? What am I missing?

I am curious to see the numbers in their Q4 2020 financials.

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Originally Posted by NW-Bound I just saw something on the Web about the e-Tron being the best selling EV in Norway. Tesla is 2nd. The 3rd is VW.

Yes, I linked an article to that earlier in the thread. The e-Tron looks like a nice car: https://manofmany.com/rides/cars/202...ectric-vehicle

I don't follow EV cars that closely, but I would be surprised if one company will have a monopoly in that space.

[RetiredAtThirty-eight]

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Originally Posted by tulak I looked at their financials for Q3 2020 the other day. They have three revenue streams: 7.61B - Automotive revenue 0.58B - Energy generation and storage 0.58B - Services and other What are the other revenue streams? And what are these 12 different start-ups? What am I missing?

Like most corporations, TSLA doesn't break out revenues with as much detail as us analytical types would like but the only thing I guess you're missing is the growth trajectory of all three of those categories. Keep in mind that Tesla's non-auto manufacturing revenues are just starting to grow and they have considerable seasonality to them (such is the nature of rooftop construction projects).

What this seasonality means for revenues is you can't really compare quarter to quarter. The revenue growth will appear "lumpy" and a more clear picture can be obtained by focusing on clues throughout each quarter as to how each business is progressing. It's not for the amateur analyst.

To date, Tesla has no revenue from battery production (that is not included in Automotive revenue). In the future, you can expect in-house battery production to grow faster than than automotive revenues (as not all battery production will be destined for cars).

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I am curious to see the numbers in their Q4 2020 financials.

Me too. One thing to understand is that Tesla is a huge multi-national corporation changing the very way we generate, store and use energy. It doesn't sell popular widgets that go in and out of style with alarming speed. It's more like a huge locomotive that takes time to build momentum. And the investors are well out in front of it. The markets are forward looking. Investors that don't have the ability to look forward will not be rewarded to the same degree. If it were easy, everyone would be rich!

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Yes, I linked an article to that earlier in the thread. The e-Tron looks like a nice car: https://manofmany.com/rides/cars/202...ectric-vehicle I don't follow EV cars that closely, but I would be surprised if one company will have a monopoly in that space.

A monopoly is not needed for Tesla to succeed in spectacular fashion. Henry Ford only achieved a 60% market share with his ground-breaking Model T and yet he became the wealthiest and most successful industrialist of all-time.

The Audi is heavily discounted to compete effectively with the Model Y, often to the point of almost zero profit. In the USA, Audi and VW still have the $7500 federal tax credit (because they haven't sold enough volume of EV's to exhaust it). That is the only reason they can compete with Tesla on any sort of equal footing (considering Tesla has exhausted their tax credits due to the volume of cars already sold). Audi/VW seem to be taking their sweet time using up those tax credits. Once they have, I'm not sure they can compete.

Things are not always as they appear in the media. I shouldn't have to say this but some people seem to think you can take these stories at face value. You can't, the media is full of biases to influence your behavior. Tesla is rarely on the end that benefits because companies like Audi/VW, Ford and GMC spend billions of dollars on media advertising. Tesla spends zero. If the legacy automakers were all to go out of business, the media would lose their largest source of funding (which is legacy automakers). So, you can see the interests aligned against Tesla extend far beyond oil and gas, car dealerships and auto parts stores.

You learn something new everyday, don't you.

[tulak]

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Originally Posted by tulak I looked at their financials for Q3 2020 the other day. They have three revenue streams: 7.61B - Automotive revenue 0.58B - Energy generation and storage 0.58B - Services and other What are the other revenue streams? And what are these 12 different start-ups? What am I missing?

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Originally Posted by RetiredAtThirty-eight Like most corporations, TSLA doesn't break out revenues with as much detail as us analytical types would like but the only thing I guess you're missing is the growth trajectory of all three of those categories. Keep in mind that Tesla's non-auto manufacturing revenues are just starting to grow and they have considerable seasonality to them (such is the nature of rooftop storage). What this seasonality means for revenues is you can't really compare quarter to quarter. The revenue growth will appear "lumpy" and a more clear picture can be obtained by focusing on clues throughout each quarter as to how each business is progressing. It's not for the amateur analyst. To date, Tesla has no revenue from battery production (that is not included in Automotive revenue). In the future, you can expect in-house battery production to grow faster than than automotive revenues (as not all battery production will be destined for cars).

Well, saying they have a bunch of revenue streams and then saying they're all bundled in those three is not the detail I was hoping for. Such is life.

And yeah, you don't compare quarter to quarter. Look at the same quarter last year. Seasonality problem solved.

Q3 2019 vs Q3 2020:

+39% - Automotive revenue
+44% - Energy generation and storage
+6% - Services and other

Not bad. They did well in Q3 2020, since comparisons with Q2 2020 would look (much) worse. But that could just be the lumpiness you refer to.

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Originally Posted by RetiredAtThirty-eight Things are not always as they appear in the media. I shouldn't have to say this but some people seem to think you can take these stories at face value. You can't, the media is full of biases to influence your behavior.

Or internet forums?

I prefer to rely on financial statements. They tend to be more accurate due to regulation. And if you can't figure it out there, odds are it's an investment you should avoid.

I'm glad I had this conversation, since it forced me to look at their financials in more detail to make sure my viewpoint isn't skewed. And now it's time for me to bow out of this conversation. Best of luck!