Tesla for the long run?

[Ready]

Interesting discussion. I generally reserve my discussion of Tesla products and company related info to the Tesla dedicated forums where other enthusiasts hang out. But I’m always fascinated by the strong opinions people have against Tesla or electric vehicles in general.

We actively discuss other technologies in this forum - Android vs IOS, Windows vs PC, Quicken vs Mondeydance...and the discussion never gets heated. But if we start saying things about Tesla it seems to evoke strong reactions. I’ve never understood why. People can be an enthusiast about anything they want. If you are not an enthusiast of the subject being discussed I would think you would just move on and not participate.

[RetiredAtThirty-eight]

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Originally Posted by Ready Interesting discussion. I generally reserve my discussion of Tesla products and company related info to the Tesla dedicated forums where other enthusiasts hang out. But I’m always fascinated by the strong opinions people have against Tesla or electric vehicles in general. We actively discuss other technologies in this forum - Android vs IOS, Windows vs PC, Quicken vs Mondeydance...and the discussion never gets heated. But if we start saying things about Tesla it seems to evoke strong reactions. I’ve never understood why. People can be an enthusiast about anything they want. If you are not an enthusiast of the subject being discussed I would think you would just move on and not participate.

Good comments. I think some people feel threatened by Tesla and, as an investor, that's a good sign. Disrupters can only disrupt by displacing existing profit centers - oil, gas, dealerships, auto parts, engine shops, gas stations and suppliers, tanker truck manufacturers, the list is long.

The market is predicting Tesla will make huge profits over the next several years and those profits don't materialize from thin air - they come from decimating other existing industries. Which is why investors don't want to be on the wrong side of history when it comes to future developments in transportation and energy. It doesn't take many dogs in your portfolio to ruin the returns you are counting on for a retirement free from money worries.

[UnrealizedPotential]

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Originally Posted by Ready Interesting discussion. I generally reserve my discussion of Tesla products and company related info to the Tesla dedicated forums where other enthusiasts hang out. But I’m always fascinated by the strong opinions people have against Tesla or electric vehicles in general. We actively discuss other technologies in this forum - Android vs IOS, Windows vs PC, Quicken vs Mondeydance...and the discussion never gets heated. But if we start saying things about Tesla it seems to evoke strong reactions. I’ve never understood why. People can be an enthusiast about anything they want. If you are not an enthusiast of the subject being discussed I would think you would just move on and not participate.

I agree. I have not said anything about Tesla, because the fact is I don't know much about it, so I try to read and learn and hope something catches my eye in a way it didn't before. But I am intrigued about Tesla to say the least.

[NoiseBoy]

I was a TSLA doubter for a long time, but decided to begin speculating with ~5% of my portfolio last year, and one of my picks was TSLA pre-split. I only put $10k in, so I'm not out dancing in the street, but it's still fun to have a "2 bagger" in my portfolio. I think TSLA has a chance to justify its current valuations and possibly even more. If they can continue to bring in raw materials through one door, add their engineering and IP to them, and sell the resulting products out the exit for much higher margins than traditional automakers, what's not to like? Also, and this is just my gut feeling, I believe that TSLA's consumers are willing to pay more for their products than a direct comparison to say a Honda Accord would have one believe is reasonable. Kind of like Apple has been able to do throughout its history.

[ExFlyBoy5]

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Originally Posted by NoiseBoy ... I believe that TSLA's consumers are willing to pay more for their products than a direct comparison to say a Honda Accord would have one believe is reasonable. Kind of like Apple has been able to do throughout its history.

I think you are 100% correct. I like Tesla and what they stand for, but I can't bring myself to buy one. My most recent auto purchase was an 8 year old Accord that I got for about 10K and it will most likely last me years (barring accidents/etc). I also like Apple products, but again, I don't own anything Apple makes and I don't think I have EVER spent more than $200 for a cell phone.

Nonetheless, I did jump on the TSLA bandwagon as an investor and have been pretty happy with the gains.

[OldShooter]

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Originally Posted by RetiredAtThirty-eight ... In 2025 we meet again and compare notes to see how this unfolded. We will look at TSLA's share price, revenues, market share and profits. This will clearly show who had the most vision.

OK. What is your vision for market cap, revenues, market share and profits?

My vision is that Tesla will have become or will clearly be on the way to becoming a fairly ordinary, though interesting, company. The stock price will have collapsed as necessary to produce earnings per share of 5% or more and revenues and vehicle market share will reflect Tesla's continued presence as a minor (well under 50%) player in the portion of the world vehicle market that they serve. Also, Tesla's share in China may have been limited by government actions, as Xi will not permit any American auto company to dominate his home market. There is also existential risk for Tesla if a competitor or group of competitors are able to develop batteries of much higher energy density and choose to limit Tesla's access to them. Tesla's other lines of business will be minor revenue contributors unless events, internal or external, seriously damage the vehicle business.

[ExFlyBoy5]

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Originally Posted by OldShooter OK. What is your vision for market cap, revenues, market share and profits? My vision is that Tesla will have become or will clearly be on the way to becoming a fairly ordinary, though interesting, company. The stock price will have collapsed as necessary to produce earnings per share of 5% or more and revenues and vehicle market share will reflect Tesla's continued presence as a minor (well under 50%) player in the portion of the world vehicle market that they serve. Also, Tesla's share in China may have been limited by government actions, as Xi will not permit any American auto company to dominate his home market. There is also existential risk for Tesla if a competitor or group of competitors are able to develop batteries of much higher energy density and choose to limit Tesla's access to them. Tesla's other lines of business will be minor revenue contributors unless events, internal or external, seriously damage the vehicle business.

I look forward to reading this in TSLA's next SEC filing.

[Zathras]

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Originally Posted by OldShooter OK. What is your vision for market cap, revenues, market share and profits? My vision is that Tesla will have become or will clearly be on the way to becoming a fairly ordinary, though interesting, company. The stock price will have collapsed as necessary to produce earnings per share of 5% or more and revenues and vehicle market share will reflect Tesla's continued presence as a minor (well under 50%) player in the portion of the world vehicle market that they serve. Also, Tesla's share in China may have been limited by government actions, as Xi will not permit any American auto company to dominate his home market. There is also existential risk for Tesla if a competitor or group of competitors are able to develop batteries of much higher energy density and choose to limit Tesla's access to them. Tesla's other lines of business will be minor revenue contributors unless events, internal or external, seriously damage the vehicle business.

That is very vague.
For more specifics, I recommend this breakdown.

https://ark-invest.com/articles/anal...-price-target/

This is a year old, but still gives a very good framework.
BTW, the bear case, assumes Tesla will maintain loose some of their 18% global EV market share. The bull case assumes they will maintain the 18%.

[OldShooter]

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Originally Posted by Zathras That is very vague.

Yup. The future is vague. No surprise there.

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Originally Posted by Zathras For more specifics, I recommend this breakdown. https://ark-invest.com/articles/anal...-price-target/ This is a year old, but still gives a very good framework. BTW, the bear case, assumes Tesla will maintain loose some of their 18% global EV market share. The bull case assumes they will maintain the 18%.

I always get a kick out of this type of thing. Basically, the methodolgy is to start by picking a number whose future value is uncertain. Then, keeping that first number, pick a second number whose future value is also uncertain. Then, a third number ... And so on. Pretty soon the forecaster has a whole set of numbers where the joint probability of them all happening is close to zero, now he/she starts to draw conclusions. Garbage in, Gospel out. See also https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Garbage_in,_garbage_out

The test of a piece like this lies outside the piece. What is the anonymous prognosticator's ten year track record including all forecasts made? Funny, no one ever offers this information when they are publishing forecasts. The best you get is crowing about a cherry-picked case where they were right.

I'm sure if you go back a few years you can find many very amusing analyses of Tesla written in the same convincing style as this one, and totally wrong. The more exact (i.e., non-vague) the forecast the less likely it is to materialize.

I just finished re-reading a very good book. If you're interested in this kind of thing, try "The Drunkard's Walk. How Randomness Rules Our Lives" by Leonard Mlodinow, a Berkeley/Caltech professor. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leonard_Mlodinow

[Texas Proud]

So, do not have the article and am not going to look for it...


I was reading Road & Track (IIRC) about their experience with an electric car.... the article was about how it was cheaper to 'fill up' at home...


BUT, the thing that caught my eye was if you charged at a supercharger it was 26 cents per KWH which they calculated was over $8 per gallon equivalent....



So, for my longer trips I need to allocate 45 mins to an hour and a half to fill up AND is is going to cost me over $8 'per gallon'?





BTW, you missed my point about earnings... when you are growing you can get away with not producing the earnings that your valuation might require as there is still growth to consider... but if you are a $5 trillion company there is little growth that is going to happen... so you need to produce $500 bill to $1 trillion of PROFIT to support that valuation...


A quick look shows that the entire auto industry is not making close to that much... so Tesla needs to be able to sell 100% of vehicles and make more money per vehicle than the avg manufacturer...



BTW, since Fiat Chrysler is still selling a bunch of vehicles even though all reports show they are not even close to being as good as others there is no way that Tesla will be able to take over the market...


Again, my comments are on the valuation of Tesla... it is now a profitable company and will more than likely be in business for a long time... but worth $5 trillion.... not in my lifetime....

[Ready]

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Originally Posted by Texas Proud So, do not have the article and am not going to look for it... I was reading Road & Track (IIRC) about their experience with an electric car.... the article was about how it was cheaper to 'fill up' at home... BUT, the thing that caught my eye was if you charged at a supercharger it was 26 cents per KWH which they calculated was over $8 per gallon equivalent.... So, for my longer trips I need to allocate 45 mins to an hour and a half to fill up AND is is going to cost me over $8 'per gallon'?

That article makes no sense. At .26/KwH I spend about .08/mile to drive my Model 3. That is twice as much as home charging, so it is more expensive. But how they went from .08/mile to $8.00 per gallon is beyond me. What ICE car are they comparing it to? And where did you come up with 45-90 minutes to supercharge? I average 15 minutes.

[r3saving]

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Originally Posted by Texas Proud BUT, the thing that caught my eye was if you charged at a supercharger it was 26 cents per KWH which they calculated was over $8 per gallon equivalent.....

I'm not sure how on earth they calculated $8 /gal equivalent but it's not true. I recently bought a Tesla and just returned from my first road trip:

North TX > Canton, OH > Sarasota, FL > Houston, TX > North TX - Just under 5k miles total.

Mostly mild weather but I ran the heater the entire time and seat warmers part of the time. One hotel had free overnight charging and one super charger was free for reasons unknown to me. I paid a total of $213.31 for charging. It would have been much more expensive in my ICE which gets 30 mpg/hwy at best.

As well, most stops were 20 to 30 minutes. The only reason I stayed 45 or so minutes was when the next charger in the path was a bit too far of a distance. The latter will resolve over time.

All in all, it was a good experience and interestingly, I was never alone at a super charger location except for one I arrived at around 2 something in the morning. I also never had to wait although I filled the last open stall in one location.

I'm not saying that an EV is for everyone; just that the article you read seemed to have some wrong information .

[Qs Laptop]

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Originally Posted by OldShooter OK. What is your vision for market cap, revenues, market share and profits? My vision is that [..] Tesla's continued presence as a minor (well under 50%) player in the portion of the world vehicle market that they serve.

Wow, really going out on a limb there. In the next 5 years Tesla will have less than 50% market share! Alert the media!

[Spanky]

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Originally Posted by r3saving I'm not sure how on earth they calculated $8 /gal equivalent but it's not true. I recently bought a Tesla and just returned from my first road trip: North TX > Canton, OH > Sarasota, FL > Houston, TX > North TX - Just under 5k miles total. Mostly mild weather but I ran the heater the entire time and seat warmers part of the time. One hotel had free overnight charging and one super charger was free for reasons unknown to me. I paid a total of $213.31 for charging. It would have been much more expensive in my ICE which gets 30 mpg/hwy at best. As well, most stops were 20 to 30 minutes. The only reason I stayed 45 or so minutes was when the next charger in the path was a bit too far of a distance. The latter will resolve over time. All in all, it was a good experience and interestingly, I was never alone at a super charger location except for one I arrived at around 2 something in the morning. I also never had to wait although I filled the last open stall in one location. I'm not saying that an EV is for everyone; just that the article you read seemed to have some wrong information .

EV is quite appealing: cheaper to use and maintain. It is also fun to drive. I am ready to buy until the price becomes more affordable and the charge time down to 5 to 10 minutes.

[RetiredAtThirty-eight]

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Originally Posted by Qs Laptop Wow, really going out on a limb there. In the next 5 years Tesla will have less than 50% market share! Alert the media!

So, no chance Tesla could go from the current 1% market share to 50%?

Dang! I was hoping they might hit 75%.

OK, that's sarcasm in case anyone out there can't tell. Just to be clear, Tesla can do exceptionally well in the automotive space even if they only hit 20% market share.

I predict that sometime before 2030 revenues from manufacturing automobiles become less than half of their total revenues.

[OldShooter]

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Originally Posted by RetiredAtThirty-eight And I know you are skeptical so here's what I suggest: In 2025 we meet again and compare notes to see how this unfolded. We will look at TSLA's share price, revenues, market share and profits. This will clearly show who had the most vision.

Still waiting to know what your vision is for "TSLA's share price, revenues, market share and profits."

(I suggest using market cap instead of share price, which is affected by splits, buybacks, and new issues.) I am especially looking forward to your vision's specific numbers.

[ExFlyBoy5]

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Originally Posted by RetiredAtThirty-eight ...So, no chance Tesla could go from the current 1% market share to 50%?...

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Originally Posted by OldShooter ...Still waiting to know what your vision is for "TSLA's share price, revenues, market share and profits...."

Ya'll REALLY need to get a room.

[RetiredAtThirty-eight]

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Originally Posted by ExFlyBoy5 Ya'll REALLY need to get a room.

Title of the thread is 'Tesla for the long run'.

So, all about the investment potential of TSLA as a long-term holding.

[Christine]

https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/t...ts-and-webcast

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Tesla will post its financial results for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2020 after market close on Wednesday, January 27, 2021. At that time, Tesla will issue a brief advisory containing a link to the Q4 and full year 2020 update, which will be available on Tesla’s Investor Relations website. Tesla management will hold a live question and answer webcast that day at 3:30 p.m. Pacific Time (6:30 p.m. Eastern Time) to discuss the Company’s financial and business results and outlook.

We might get some info then.

[tulak]

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Tesla has been ceding ground in Europe, with its Model 3 now only the fourth-best selling pure electric vehicle (EV) on the continent, according to recent statistics. ... In the latest EV rankings, the Renault Zoe held onto the top spot, closely followed by the VW ID.3, according to sales figures from plug-in vehicle market database EV Volumes. Hyundai’s Kona was third ahead of the Tesla Model 3. “While this should worry Tesla shareholders, it is even more striking that the Model S and X are not in the top 20 ranking despite direct competing models such as Audi e-tron being on the list,” Garnry added.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/15/tesl...gist-says.html