|
|
08-25-2018, 01:41 PM
|
#21
|
Moderator
Join Date: Feb 2010
Location: Flyover country
Posts: 25,362
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by Christine
Some say a bear market is close because the bull is getting old.
|
Isn't that the same as saying my next coin flip will probably be tails because the last nine were heads?
__________________
I thought growing old would take longer.
|
|
|
|
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!
Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!
You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!
|
08-25-2018, 01:54 PM
|
#22
|
Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Jun 2018
Location: Delmarva
Posts: 221
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by cathy63
|
Not a problem for me. I'll be 87 years old, and thus past my "break-even" date, so I'll be ahead of the game!
__________________
"I can't complain, but sometimes I still do." - Joe Walsh, Life's Been Good
|
|
|
08-25-2018, 02:06 PM
|
#23
|
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jan 2017
Location: Hog Mountian
Posts: 2,077
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by travelover
I don't know, either.
|
I know, but I aint telling.
__________________
Never let yesterday use up too much of today.
W. Rogers
|
|
|
08-25-2018, 02:35 PM
|
#24
|
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Washington, DC
Posts: 11,331
|
I didn't even read the article but when a lot of people start exclaiming that the longest bull market in decades will go on for another ten years I think irrational exuberance. Not that I will be changing anything in any event. Ten more years and I will definitely be flying first class.
__________________
Idleness is fatal only to the mediocre -- Albert Camus
|
|
|
08-25-2018, 02:43 PM
|
#25
|
Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Oct 2007
Posts: 798
|
__________________
Mission accomplished - not necessarily ER, but certainly R.
|
|
|
08-25-2018, 02:56 PM
|
#26
|
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: Kansas City
Posts: 7,968
|
Who was that old guy - J. P. Morgan or some such said about The Market 'It Will Fluctuate.'
I on the other hand have have put my trust in electricity and those 'Trusty? Vanguard computers' to re - balance my balanced index on full auto.
From 1966 to 2006 I finally figured out that I hadn't figured it out so I went full auto.
heh heh heh - If after being really cheap early in ER and loosening up spend wise later in ER and IF money is left on the table I will try not to cry.
|
|
|
08-25-2018, 02:58 PM
|
#27
|
Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Dec 2014
Posts: 670
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by braumeister
Isn't that the same as saying my next coin flip will probably be tails because the last nine were heads?
|
Sounds very similar to me. But maybe you have a magic coin that can tell the future?
|
|
|
08-25-2018, 03:11 PM
|
#28
|
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Mar 2011
Posts: 8,421
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by Crabby Mike
Not a problem for me. I'll be 87 years old, and thus past my "break-even" date, so I'll be ahead of the game!
|
And I'll be 88.
But, according to the article, by 2020 (15 months from now) the "quality of life should go to zero" due to pollution and overpopulation to the point where pollution starts to kill people and the population goes down below where it was in 1900.
See, in 1973 pollution and overpopulation was 'the thing' only to be replaced by global cooling, replaced by acid rain, which was replaced by the oil shortage, which led us here: talking about SS haircuts as we wait for ever increasingly expensive shipping containers to deliver our air conditioners to help us deal with global warming which we won't be able to afford because of the Boomers having caused a recession.
__________________
Living well is the best revenge!
Retired @ 52 in 2005
|
|
|
08-25-2018, 03:53 PM
|
#29
|
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Mar 2017
Posts: 1,659
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by cyber888
|
I'm not a doom-and-gloom type, but I'm also old enough to remember "Dow 36000" in the late 1990s.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dow_36,000
|
|
|
08-25-2018, 03:58 PM
|
#30
|
Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Jul 2013
Posts: 953
|
What a bunch of noise. We have known that the Mayans have shown us that the galactic end of the world is going to occur in 2012...
Wait a minute...
__________________
Well it's all right, we're heading to the end of the line...
|
|
|
08-25-2018, 05:31 PM
|
#31
|
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: Laurel, MD
Posts: 8,327
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by donheff
I didn't even read the article but when a lot of people start exclaiming that the longest bull market in decades will go on for another ten years I think irrational exuberance. Not that I will be changing anything in any event. Ten more years and I will definitely be flying first class.
|
Yeah but, according to the article, this bull market run only started in 2013 so it’s only 5 yrs old.
__________________
...with no reasonable expectation for ER, I'm just here auditing the AP class.Retired 8/1/15.
|
|
|
08-25-2018, 06:25 PM
|
#32
|
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Nov 2016
Location: Richards
Posts: 1,245
|
I know one thing , DW has a 401K and we are watching the Dow very close . Once the Dow hits 26000 we will sell and move to a managed IRA . Expect a correction when the market hits 26000. ……...OK just talking .
|
|
|
08-25-2018, 06:59 PM
|
#33
|
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Aug 2013
Posts: 1,972
|
__________________
No to consumerism, Living a simple life, enjoying the experience - not the material stuff
|
|
|
08-26-2018, 02:52 AM
|
#34
|
Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Jun 2018
Location: Brisbane
Posts: 855
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by cyber888
https://cabotwealth.com/daily/stock-...ely-years-run/
Saw an article and I agree the bull run will continue for awhile.. another 10 years or so perhaps. The Tech sector will continue to power growth.
I’ve heard the doom and gloom saying the Baby Boomers will take out tons of money from the stock market..and the market will collapse lol. On the other hand, aside from the military and government workers who are still getting pensions, Private pensions are a thing of the past and younger people are plowing their retirement savings into the stock market or index funds. And I think many boomers’s kids will inherit their 401k, instead of blowing all of it.
|
being both a 'baby boomer ' and a contrarian it should come as no surprise that i disagree , i see pensions being wound back 70 soon and 75 later
a lot a superannuation funds will be ghosts of what you expect , excessive fees and other charges and to ( very often ) compound that serial under-performance if there is a bond rout or stock market collapse watch the asset base and yields plummet .
i need to be in the market to force asset growth but i also take profit earlier than many .
there is a huge amount of global debt , there is no nice resolution to the massive debt obligations .
__________________
i hold the Australian listed versions of AU ( Anglo Ashanti ) , BHP , and JHG .
You must learn from the mistakes of others. You can't possibly live long enough to make them all yourself.
Samuel Levenson
|
|
|
08-26-2018, 04:54 AM
|
#35
|
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Dec 2015
Posts: 2,232
|
The good thing to know here is that before the market tumbles into a correction, followed by a decade long bear, articles like this will give us plenty of warning ahead of time, for us to reallocate appropriately.
|
|
|
08-26-2018, 06:18 AM
|
#36
|
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 3,410
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by cathy63
|
Not a problem for us. We will be dead by then or have so few grey cells left we won't know what is going on anyway. However, I might talk to the grown children about options with their inheritance if they are interested in my opinion. Whether they manage it for their remaining years or blow it all is up to them. What ever they decide is alright with me. I won't know anyway. My job will be done.
Cheers!
|
|
|
08-26-2018, 06:57 AM
|
#37
|
Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Jun 2018
Location: Brisbane
Posts: 855
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by HadEnuff
The good thing to know here is that before the market tumbles into a correction, followed by a decade long bear, articles like this will give us plenty of warning ahead of time, for us to reallocate appropriately.
|
allocate to where
i am very light in interest bearing securities ( and will probably have a hybrid converted before the year's end )
simply because the reward for risk taken is not there , i did move extra cash into real estate trusts ( as bond proxies ) but that market is slowly declining and may yet slump heavily .
CDs barely beat inflation and might not break even , depending ob your tax obligations .
considering this is a 'fantastic bull market ' there are some very strange indicators flashing
__________________
i hold the Australian listed versions of AU ( Anglo Ashanti ) , BHP , and JHG .
You must learn from the mistakes of others. You can't possibly live long enough to make them all yourself.
Samuel Levenson
|
|
|
08-26-2018, 07:06 AM
|
#38
|
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Rio Grande Valley
Posts: 38,153
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by braumeister
Isn't that the same as saying my next coin flip will probably be tails because the last nine were heads?
|
No.
__________________
Retired since summer 1999.
|
|
|
08-26-2018, 07:10 AM
|
#39
|
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Rio Grande Valley
Posts: 38,153
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by marko
See, in 1973 pollution and overpopulation was 'the thing' only to be replaced by global cooling, replaced by acid rain, which was replaced by the oil shortage, which led us here: talking about SS haircuts as we wait for ever increasingly expensive shipping containers to deliver our air conditioners to help us deal with global warming which we won't be able to afford because of the Boomers having caused a recession.
|
Some of these issues were addressed and improved - like acid rain and oil shortages.
__________________
Retired since summer 1999.
|
|
|
08-26-2018, 08:30 AM
|
#40
|
Moderator Emeritus
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: minnesota
Posts: 13,228
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by marko
. . .
See, in 1973 pollution and overpopulation was 'the thing' only to be replaced by global cooling, replaced by acid rain, which was replaced by the oil shortage, which led us here: talking about SS haircuts as we wait for ever increasingly expensive shipping containers to deliver our air conditioners to help us deal with global warming which we won't be able to afford because of the Boomers having caused a recession.
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by audreyh1
Some of these issues were addressed and improved - like acid rain and oil shortages.
|
And, there never was a consensus on global cooling. In fact, in the mid-70s the basic consensus was that they did not yet have a good understanding of what determines the course of the "climate machine" to make climate predictions.
__________________
.
No more lawyer stuff, no more political stuff, so no more CYA
|
|
|
|
|
Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
|
|
Posting Rules
|
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts
HTML code is Off
|
|
|
|
» Recent Threads
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
» Quick Links
|
|
|