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Old 11-24-2021, 12:11 AM   #241
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Here are some examples where some very reputable media have reported on El Salvador's plans in a neutral and professional manner:
Sure. If you consider BBC and CNBC reputable

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A good resource where you can learn more about how geothermal energy works is here:
I live on a volcano. There is geothermal energy here. My point had nothing to do with geothermal. Volcanoes tend to produce lava and pyroclastic flows now and then.

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You may wish to brush up on your knowledge of geography. (Guatemala and El Salvador are in fact two different countries).
DOOOOHHHHH! Yep, stupid mistake on my part. But Guatemala, El Salvador...same difference. Not far apart on corruption indexes. I wonder how much of that $500 million will end up in the personal wallets of El Presidente and his cronies.
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Old 11-24-2021, 06:55 AM   #242
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If it is BITO, then it is futures. No actual bitcoin ETF approved in USA. Some in Canada. GBTC holds bitcoin but it is a closed end fund. Many, including Fidelity, have applied for ETF.
Latest failure was a couple weeks ago:

"The application was filed in March by the Cboe BZX Exchange, which wanted the SEC to make a rule change allowing it to list the VanEck bitcoin fund. The SEC said the Cboe had not done enough to demonstrate it could prevent fraudulent trading to protect investors."

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/12/sec-...-directly.html
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Old 11-26-2021, 10:55 AM   #243
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https://decrypt.co/86820/morgan-stan...heavy-discount

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Morgan Stanley, one of the largest investment banks in the U.S., has increased its Bitcoin exposure to over $300 million by purchasing additional shares of the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) for three of its funds during the third quarter.

In an SEC filing this week, the Morgan Stanley Institutional Fund’s Growth Portfolio reported holding 3,642,118 shares of GBTC at the end of Q3, compared to 2,130,153 at the end of Q2, an increase of 71%.
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Old 11-26-2021, 12:08 PM   #244
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Interesting piece in New Scientist magazine about how crypto has been so hugely inflated, at least a couple of years ago. Behind a paywall but this is the summary:
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As many as seven in 10 cryptocurrency trades on the world’s most popular but unregulated exchanges may be people buying from themselves to artificially inflate prices, according to a new analysis. A study of 29 cryptocurrency exchanges, where people buy and sell virtual currencies, undertaken between July and November 2019 found significant volumes of “wash trading” within cryptocurrencies. Wash trading is where an investor sells and buys the same asset to create artificial interest in an investment, often distorting the price. On the exchanges that are regulated, the researchers found little evidence of these distortions.
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Old 11-26-2021, 12:17 PM   #245
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Crypto is not subject to the wash sale rule, so a lot of crypto people like to book in paper losses for tax reasons. If they push the rules to the limit they can buy back a second later.
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Old 11-26-2021, 10:57 PM   #246
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But also there is a ton of bot trading that creates market noise I think
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Old 11-27-2021, 12:05 AM   #247
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Thanks for the update! Its a smart move (regardless of your view on BTC), the BTC in the GBTC trade at a big discount to NAV. I have been considering doing the same thing. I love arbitrage opportunities of buying at discount with a strong likelihood of an upward reversion to fair value type trades.
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Old 11-27-2021, 12:14 AM   #248
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Interesting article here on the adoption of Bitcoin by the citizens of Turkey as the Lira continues to collapse. Even though not an "official currency", its fast becoming an unofficial currency.

https://news.yahoo.com/turkey-makes-...172755488.html

The writer of the article, David Z. Morris, concludes:

"Turkey is fast becoming a case study of bitcoin’s potential benefits for residents of countries with fragile currencies, or authoritarian leaders likely to pursue short-term political gain through inflationary policies."

To me, it was obvious BTC would start to be used like this. In many countries where the USD was the "informal currency" of the people, BTC has become the "new USD", for many reasons including obviously its electronic convenience, the ability to transact in any amount, and the ability to virtually send anywhere in the world (as opposed to face to face physical transfer).
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Old 11-27-2021, 09:32 AM   #249
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I recall an interview long ago where a South American was asked why he put his money in Bitcoin, given that it could collapse. He said his country's currency had already collapsed 6 times, leaving him with nothing each time.

Turkey seems to be firing it's central bank governor every year since inflation started being a problem. The current governor is following the President of Turkey's lead, and not raising rates despite inflation. It makes sense that people are seeking alternatives.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...blic_of_Turkey

I was originally going to ask why Afghanistan, with 81% having access to a mobile phone. I wondered if people who could buy Bitcoin would do so. But another search revealed the problem:

"smart phones account for a relatively low share of the
market thus far; only 14.0% of mobile phone owners say their phones allow them to access the Internet or download apps."
https://www.usagm.gov/wp-content/upl...arch-brief.pdf


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To me, it was obvious BTC would start to be used like this. In many countries where the USD was the "informal currency" of the people, BTC has become the "new USD", for many reasons including obviously its electronic convenience, the ability to transact in any amount, and the ability to virtually send anywhere in the world (as opposed to face to face physical transfer).
Years ago I thought if that as a rare event, but it does seem to be common. People fearing the collapse of their currency can benefit from the option to buy Bitcoin.
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Old 11-27-2021, 11:39 AM   #250
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I wasn't going to bother posting this, since there was push back on videos and this is really long, but I put in the time to watch it and thought it was excellent. I am not going to do a complete summary since that would be too much work. I would ask that those who want to criticize it do not post unless they have actually watched it.

I have recently found Robert Breedlove and see that he does really long deep dive videos. I had previously followed Raoul Pal, who is a macro investor, now crypto proponent, who used to work at Goldman Sachs and hedge funds.

This is a two hour discussion where Raoul Pal lays out his 30 year macro investing thesis in complete detail. The first hour never mentions crypto once. It is an excellent historical survey of all the economic activity and decisions leading up to the current situation. I found his perspective fascinating, he argues that the macro economic trends were driven by demographics and a lot of the mistakes that were made were based on semi-rational actions by the decision makers.

He comes to the conclusion that out current situation is that all the central banks are stuck with devaluing the currency (money printing) because they have to support the collateral of multiple large debt bubbles. If they let any of these debt bubbles pop it will be game over similar to what happened in Argentina.

He brings up the book "The Fourth Turning", which I am a huge fan of. He says that the prior action basically protected the boomer generation at the expense of the millenial generation and that we are now in the middle of massive generational change with the millenials taking over from the boomers combined with a huge ramp up in techological innovation. He argues, which was my initial motivation to learn more about crypto, that there is a parallel financial system being built based on crypto and defi. He is not certain if the end result will be good or bad but he is certain that we are in the middle of massive change.

In summary, no matter where you fall on the crypto question, I think it would be very useful to at least watch the first hour to get a better understanding of the current situation and the history leading up to it.

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Old 11-27-2021, 12:59 PM   #251
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Originally Posted by 37andhappy View Post
Interesting article here on the adoption of Bitcoin by the citizens of Turkey as the Lira continues to collapse. Even though not an "official currency", its fast becoming an unofficial currency.

https://news.yahoo.com/turkey-makes-...172755488.html

The writer of the article, David Z. Morris, concludes:

"Turkey is fast becoming a case study of bitcoin’s potential benefits for residents of countries with fragile currencies, or authoritarian leaders likely to pursue short-term political gain through inflationary policies."

To me, it was obvious BTC would start to be used like this. In many countries where the USD was the "informal currency" of the people, BTC has become the "new USD", for many reasons including obviously its electronic convenience, the ability to transact in any amount, and the ability to virtually send anywhere in the world (as opposed to face to face physical transfer).
The linked article does not support any of the conclusions in your post.

It does say “ Bitcoin trading volumes are rising in Turkey” and “ Some Turkish citizens decided to take their business elsewhere: BTCTurk, one of a handful of local exchanges offering lira/BTC trades, has seen a noticeable uptick in volume, according to public data”.

There is no data, however, to give even a hint of the volume, so we have no way of knowing the significance. A link in the Yahoo News article does point to another issue which you forgot to mention. Apparently two crypto exchanges have shut down, each held “hundreds of thousands of accounts”, all the crypto assets are missing, the owner of one exchange is in jail and the owner of the other is missing and accused of absconding with more that $2B. The numbers are unsubstantiated, but they certainly cast doubt on how just how closely the Turkish people are embracing crypto, if at all.

As for your assertion that BTC is replacing the US$ as the new “informal currency”, there is no data or evidence to support that. If one objective of this thread is to inform, the exaggeration and hyperbole get in the way and don’t help.
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Old 11-27-2021, 03:33 PM   #252
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The linked article does not support any of the conclusions in your post.

It does say “ Bitcoin trading volumes are rising in Turkey” and “ Some Turkish citizens decided to take their business elsewhere: BTCTurk, one of a handful of local exchanges offering lira/BTC trades, has seen a noticeable uptick in volume, according to public data”.

There is no data, however, to give even a hint of the volume, so we have no way of knowing the significance. A link in the Yahoo News article does point to another issue which you forgot to mention. Apparently two crypto exchanges have shut down, each held “hundreds of thousands of accounts”, all the crypto assets are missing, the owner of one exchange is in jail and the owner of the other is missing and accused of absconding with more that $2B. The numbers are unsubstantiated, but they certainly cast doubt on how just how closely the Turkish people are embracing crypto, if at all.

As for your assertion that BTC is replacing the US$ as the new “informal currency”, there is no data or evidence to support that. If one objective of this thread is to inform, the exaggeration and hyperbole get in the way and don’t help.
According to an article in the WSJ, Turks are exchanging their lira for US dollars.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/turks-s...7859160?page=1

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A currency crisis here is battering Turks’ confidence in their government’s ability to manage the economy, causing droves of people to buy U.S. dollars and sending crowds of people into the streets to oppose President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s policies.
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Old 11-29-2021, 12:06 AM   #253
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I have not seen mentioned that India is considering banning bitcoin.

https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-59402310

I know folks here don't think governments can ban crypto. But if China and India both effectively implement a ban that eliminates 36% of the world population. That can't be good for demand and price increase.

If I had to guess I would say China will make their ban effective by "disappearing" people with signficant crypto holdings for periods like they have done with other undesirables. They might even get to spend some time in financial reeducation camps.

India will probably enforce through confiscation.

I think there is some naivite at work here as to why governments would want to eliminate crypto. In the specific case of India I have some direct experience here. I once worked a a high level position in a company with a contract in India. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) had to approve each payment we received. The contract was with a private institution but the ~$1M payments were enough to impact national issues for the RBI. I suspect, and one can infer by reading between the lines in the linked article, that the RBI is very concerned about being able to manage and control cash flows. So it may have nothing to do with crime and corruption. It also messes up management of cross-border financial flows.
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Old 11-29-2021, 10:52 AM   #254
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It's worse than 36% of the world's population. Before the ban, most Bitcoin was mined in China.

Earlier this year, China's energy shortage lead to blackouts. If the first rule of fight club is "you do not talk about fight club", then the first rule of China is "you do not make President Xi look bad". China had a majority of the world's Bitcoin mining before then, so energy usage was significant. I think that's why it was targeted this year.

An article claimed India has 4x more Bitcoin than America. Well, a quick search shows they have 4x more population. But I'm surprised India and the U.S. have such similar ownership. Sounds like a ban in India would be a significant hit to crypto overall.
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Old 11-29-2021, 09:24 PM   #255
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... if China and India both effectively implement a ban that eliminates 36% of the world population. That can't be good for demand and price increase.
You cannot "ban" an immutable mathematical algorithm. (This has been explained here previously). To make it simple, imagine a "ban" on the mathematical truth that 1+1 = 2.

China has not banned Bitcoin. Indeed, Chinese citizens are permitted to hold Bitcoin, and do in ever increasing numbers (for many obvious reasons). What has been "banned" in China is the operation of crypto exchanges within China (even though the world's largest crypto exchange, Binance, is actually owned by a Chinese born person, now with Canadian citizenship). Mining has also been heavily discouraged in China, which was fantastic news for Bitcoin as there was a lingering concern that too much hash-power located in China could be a threat to Bitcoin if all harnessed by the CCP for nefarious purposes. This risk has now been removed, which is one reason why BTC rallied after the China mining ban.

It is more correct to say that India is actually looking at regulating crypto currencies (as opposed to "banning". I personally know legislators who are involved with this topic. They realize that BTC = freedom, and are far closer aligned as a country with US concepts of freedom, as opposed to Chinese concepts of state control. They also have many tech savvy Indians graduating each year, with the best and brightest getting exposure to US tech companies. What is more likely in India is a crackdown on crypto scams, and coins that function as securities (where a founder retains equity) and bypasses traditional listed company regulations. This is therefore very very positive for Bitcoin long term, once Indian's start adapting en-mass.
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Old 11-29-2021, 09:33 PM   #256
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China had a majority of the world's Bitcoin mining before then, so energy usage was significant. I think that's why it was targeted this year.
The "energy shortage" was largely a red-herring "official reason" for the mining ban. The real reason was that it was a concern to the CCP that energy could be used locally to effectively generate wealth immediately accessible off-shore and globally by mining operators - effectively "sucking money out of China" and bypassing foreign exchange controls. China seeks to control any kind of capital outflow (especially if done using state-subsidized electricity).
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Old 11-30-2021, 02:25 AM   #257
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You cannot "ban" an immutable mathematical algorithm. (This has been explained here previously). To make it simple, imagine a "ban" on the mathematical truth that 1+1 = 2.
You keep saying this but it is dead wrong. Every country is different but even in a very free country like the US it is illegal to own some things including, at various times, gold, drug paraphernalia, certain types and ages of firearms, and other humans. In a more authoritarian country like China, they can ban ownership of cybercurrencies under their laws. Sure, people can likely still own bitcoin. But those people will be criminals, furthering the association of bitcoin with criminal activity. So I don't see how your argument helps your case.

I could give you many examples where legislatures have banned "immutable mathematical facts." Here in the US the value of pi was almost commanded to be exactly 3 in Indiana. We have had plenty of examples in the US where politicians of all persuations have tried to legislate over laws of physics, proving nothing but their own stupidity. So mathematical immutability is no barrier to banning crypto. It's not something I foresee the US doing but if it becomes a significant factor in international currency flows I think most countries will regulate it into obscurity.
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Old 11-30-2021, 05:56 AM   #258
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The "energy shortage" was largely a red-herring "official reason" for the mining ban. The real reason was that it was a concern to the CCP that energy could be used locally to effectively generate wealth immediately accessible off-shore and globally by mining operators - effectively "sucking money out of China" and bypassing foreign exchange controls. China seeks to control any kind of capital outflow (especially if done using state-subsidized electricity).
Bitcoin is a tool to get around laws and launder money in this example. Furthering the case that it should be outlawed (from the view of the state). Also no central bank / political body is going to give up control of the currency without a huge fight.
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Old 11-30-2021, 06:18 AM   #259
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Governments can make the holding of crypto illegal by citizens. I think that is obvious.

Governments can not make crypto go away or not exist. That is some thing else.

Yes it is potentially a huge fight. Better to have some money backing both fighters in my opinion
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Old 11-30-2021, 06:24 AM   #260
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Governments can make the holding of crypto illegal by citizens. I think that is obvious.

Governments can not make crypto go away or not exist. That is some thing else.

Yes it is potentially a huge fight. Better to have some money backing both fighters in my opinion
Country X says no to Bitcoin, then how does it ever gain traction? Merchant Y places ads for services in Bitcoin. Country X says that is a crime. Merchant Y hangs upside down in canvas bag, no one will go near Bitcoin again.
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