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The Cryptocurrency Thread 2
Old 01-09-2022, 08:33 PM   #61
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The Cryptocurrency Thread 2

I consider myself a serious ‘hobbyist’ retail investor with a long term buy and hold approach to crypto as part of normal diversification. VTI, TLT etc

I consider crypto as part of the future and would love a low cost US ETF similar to those available in other countries.

I am hoping GBTC gets the conversion to ETF this year reducing fees and eliminating the -20% discount which would be a nice value boost.
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Old 01-09-2022, 11:36 PM   #62
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I consider myself a serious ‘hobbyist’ retail investor with a long term buy and hold approach to crypto as part of normal diversification. VTI, TLT etc
I consider crypto as part of the future and would love a low cost US ETF similar to those available in other countries.
I'm confused now.
1. Diversification value: does crypto really move differently from regular securities (stocks/bonds) when market conditions change?
2. What makes you think it is part of the future? To me its value is purely speculative, i.e. it's more like gold. But gold at least can be used to make a ring - there are indeed people who buy gold because they need gold, while nobody buys Bitcoin because they need Bitcoin - everyone buys it to resell it to someone else, with hope to make a profit.
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Old 01-10-2022, 01:32 AM   #63
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I have rental property, stocks, bonds, gold, cash and crypto.

I think they all will be part of my future. I see crypto partly like a super speculative tech stock (ETH) and also a speculative gold alternative (BTC)

If future financial services run on crypto it will be worth a lot.

Nothing too complex in my approach.
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Old 01-10-2022, 06:53 AM   #64
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I suggest that future financial services will involve something like blockchain technology.

The core currency component will be crypto put in place by each gov't.

As today there will be a lead currency. My guess it that it won't be something credited to an anonymous person, like BTC.
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Old 01-10-2022, 07:25 AM   #65
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I suggest that future financial services will involve something like blockchain technology.

The core currency component will be crypto put in place by each gov't.

As today there will be a lead currency. My guess it that it won't be something credited to an anonymous person, like BTC.
that's an interesting thought experiment, if every country creates their own blockchain for their currency.
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The Cryptocurrency Thread 2
Old 01-10-2022, 08:21 AM   #66
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The Cryptocurrency Thread 2

BTC price nudged down again this am, making it essentially flat for the last year. I looked back and only see two Jan-Jan periods when Bitcoin was down, and it was way down. The other 8 were WAY up. People who try to predict Bitcoin prices short term often don’t come out looking so good, eg virtually all the podcasters I consume who confidently predicted $100,000 by the end of 2021. I’m only interested in the 5-10 year future prices and bet on 10-20x or more as global adoption widens.

For fun, any guesses on January 2023 Bitcoin price? We haven’t seen two back to back blah Jan-Jan periods. I’ll bet $80,000.
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Old 01-10-2022, 08:35 AM   #67
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They say your 1st guess is the best.

Since BTC etc. is correlating with VT more and more, I predict it will be negative for the year, just like the growth component of S&P500. Revealing my pessimistic personality, it will be -25% for the year, both BTC and VTI.
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Old 01-10-2022, 06:10 PM   #68
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that's an interesting thought experiment, if every country creates their own blockchain for their currency.
Blockchain is just a software platform.
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Old 01-10-2022, 06:21 PM   #69
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Does the bitcoin drop due to internet shutdown in Kazakhstan or the Fed?
If it is due to the situation in Kazakhstan, then it will stabilize because people willing to mine more to earn quick bucks.
However, if it is due the Fed raising interest rate, then it will go down more since there are three or more rate increases this year alone.
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Old 01-10-2022, 09:43 PM   #70
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Well if we knew we would be richer.
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The Cryptocurrency Thread 2
Old 01-10-2022, 11:56 PM   #71
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The Cryptocurrency Thread 2

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2. What makes you think it is part of the future? To me its value is purely speculative, i.e. it's more like gold. But gold at least can be used to make a ring - there are indeed people who buy gold because they need gold, while nobody buys Bitcoin because they need Bitcoin - everyone buys it to resell it to someone else, with hope to make a profit.

A better analogy for Bitcoin might be land on the island of Manhattan, as there is a finite number of parcels and developers are building aggressively on top of it.

Regardless of the imperfect analogy available for a brand new asset class, there actually is a need for such a “digital property” in an inflationary world in which most governments, including ours, repeatedly flood the markets with cash to stave off recession. Much of that new cash has flowed into securities of all kinds, which are overbought and at nosebleed prices, and home prices are through the roof, due to record low interest rates set by central banks. Meanwhile, Bitcoin is being created at a slow, controlled rate, not subject to any central bank or dictator. No single entity runs it and its vast, global ecosystem of nodes, miners and holders can’t feasibly be stopped or changed at this point. Unlike other crypto and fiat currencies, Bitcoin is an ice cube that can’t really melt or disappear, which is what is so appealing to investors ranging from hedge funds to Millennials to immigrants sending remittances back home. 99% of people seem to poo-poo such a disruptive, early-stage technology but I see a moat forming around Bitcoin, specifically, and am paying rapt attention. YMMV.
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Old 01-11-2022, 06:07 AM   #72
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A better analogy for Bitcoin might be land on the island of Manhattan, as there is a finite number of parcels and developers are building aggressively on top of it.

Regardless of the imperfect analogy available for a brand new asset class, there actually is a need for such a “digital property” in an inflationary world in which most governments, including ours, repeatedly flood the markets with cash to stave off recession. Much of that new cash has flowed into securities of all kinds, which are overbought and at nosebleed prices, and home prices are through the roof, due to record low interest rates set by central banks. Meanwhile, Bitcoin is being created at a slow, controlled rate, not subject to any central bank or dictator. No single entity runs it and its vast, global ecosystem of nodes, miners and holders can’t feasibly be stopped or changed at this point. Unlike other crypto and fiat currencies, Bitcoin is an ice cube that can’t really melt or disappear, which is what is so appealing to investors ranging from hedge funds to Millennials to immigrants sending remittances back home. 99% of people seem to poo-poo such a disruptive, early-stage technology but I see a moat forming around Bitcoin, specifically, and am paying rapt attention. YMMV.
Yes, Manhattan is a perfect example. I believe there are also downside risks with Manhattan property. The environment the island sits in is changing. Nothing is forever, and ice cubes melt. Even if a meltless cube is invented, there is no guarantee that access to the ice cube is guaranteed. YMMV.
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Old 01-11-2022, 09:46 AM   #73
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If you like the Manhattan anology, then perhaps Decentralland (MANA) would be a more direct play. It sells virtual real estate in the metaverse. :-)
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The Cryptocurrency Thread 2
Old 01-11-2022, 10:44 AM   #74
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The Cryptocurrency Thread 2

^^^^^. Ha, my mind = blown.

I’m about 3/4 of the way through the Alden article that Sand101 linked in post #33. The way she explains crypto history makes me queasy about any coin, token, NFT or network that is not called Bitcoin. Bitcoin has survived massive attacks, blockchain wars and forks and has now reached an adoption scale that is probably impervious.

She confirms Michael Saylor’s analogy that Bitcoin is a proven, one-celled kind of simple plankton in a sea of evolving, colliding invertebrates at war with each other for reproduction and survival. Even Ethereum can’t seem to settle on its DNA, risking being gobbled up by faster Solana or Cardano, which are unproven and are subject to all sorts of vulnerabilities themselves. Those are all currencies and securities, while Bitcoin is distinctly a simple digital property.
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Old 01-11-2022, 11:05 AM   #75
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The Cryptocurrency Thread 2

PS. If you want to feel better about coming to the Bitcoin party too late, read Dr. Paul Krugman’s new opinion piece in the NYT, and the reader comments. The derision and ignorance displayed by intelligent people reflect just how we still might be not only in early innings but in spring training.

…And yet Dr. Krugman’s world view is threatened enough for him to write about it. Bitcoin doesn’t care, though. It just sits there, while more and more people buy and hold a piece.
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Old 01-11-2022, 11:16 AM   #76
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If you like the Manhattan anology, then perhaps Decentralland (MANA) would be a more direct play. It sells virtual real estate in the metaverse. :-)
Wasn't there a shill selling real estate on the moon at one time in the past?
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Old 01-11-2022, 11:35 AM   #77
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Crypto Software for taxes prep
Old 01-11-2022, 06:38 PM   #78
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Crypto Software for taxes prep

Any recommendation on crypto software? I have crypto in various platforms (Coinbase, Nexo, and Blockfi). I've been trading (buying/selling). Now it's time to figure how my taxes for 2021!!

I've looked at Cointracking and Zenledger. Based on my needs Zenledger would charge $150/year. I don't find this too expensive but would like to hear what others have to say or recommend.

Thanks
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Old 01-12-2022, 12:17 AM   #79
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I would just download your transactions as cab and learn a bit of spreadsheeting before letting software log it to your accounts
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Old 01-12-2022, 04:00 AM   #80
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I have some BTC and USDC in three different exchanges. I make 9%APY paid monthly on my USDC. I have a little over 6 figures invested and I am just seeing how real and how long this 9% can last. So far, so good on earning the interest but the centralized exchanges all suffer from underdeveloped customer service departments.
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