The Tortoise vs. the Hares (the 80% CASH approach)

[BTravlin]

Interesting. Our family owned business had Allmon as our retirement plan manager from the late 80's until late 2005. Allmon shifted to a defensive stance before the tech bubble burst. Afterward, he shifted to even more cash as he said the market was still overvalued compared to historical values and that the market always returned to the mean. He railed about derivatives and casino type investors distorting the markets. He maintained that the market was due for a huge correction and that he (and those invested with him) would be in the enviable position of sitting on a huge pile of cash when the inevitable fall came and would be able to buy many great companies at huge discounts. Everything he said made perfect sense. We watched and waited and the market kept moving up. Seems as if he'd been making his gloom and doom predictions forever. He was getting well up in years and we wondered if maybe the markets had changed such that he wasn't as in tune with things as he had been. Eventually, we tired of paying his 1% fees to sit in treasuries. Hell, we could buy treasuries ourselves and save the 1%. But we didn't buy treasuries on the switch, we bought a portfolio of diversified mutual funds. Then came 2008 and I'm sure those still invested with him were quite happy being 80% cash. I know I would have been. It doesn't seem as if he pulled the trigger even after the crash though. If that wasn't enough to move him off cash then I'd hate to see what it would take.

I had the pleasure of meeting him a couple of times out in Montana where he has a large ranch on the Yellowstone River. Super intelligent, hard worker, led a really interesting life prior to career in money management, big fan of Buffet, great stock picker himself. The majority of his clients were already retired or near retirement so he preached preservation of capital. He is a market timer but only in the broadest sense. He will make big shifts in his portfolio when he sees the market way out whack.

[almost there]

"assume an average annual return of 8%, adjusted for inflation at 3% - a reasonable estimate of average market returns."

There is the joke. Above is what most plans want you to believe.
Maybe its just me, but I would give anything for that average over the past 25 years.

Cash for now. I am not buying this Sep. rally and would not be surprised to see a major crash. S&P ten year return is a negative number.
And things do not look to be improving at all.

Thoughts?

[REWahoo]

Quote:

Originally Posted by almost there Thoughts?

You could be right - or you could be wrong.

[almost there]

Agree

Either way, I will have - what I have............

[Nords]

Quote:

Originally Posted by ESRwannabe The only reason a person can't be successful with that strategy is if they refuse to save enough money. If you start young and set aside 25% of your income every year in fixed income, you should be fine.

Reminds me of Suze Orman Groucho Marx: "You can retire on municipal bonds Treasuries if you have enough of them!"

I'm not sure that saving assets is a purely voluntary exercise involving only acceptance or refusal. There's a fine line between frugality & deprivation, and most people know only one way to find it.