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09-28-2015, 02:08 PM
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#41
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Oct 2009
Posts: 2,115
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This is really starting to hurt a bit.
It's funny. When market is hitting all time highs there are worries about retiring thinking it will go down once you pull the plug and your sequence of returns risk is high. But when the market is correcting there are worries about retiring cause your portfolio is actually getting pounded. It's not theoretical. It's occurring.
Either way too much worry. This retiring thing is not for the timid. It aint easy.
Muir
__________________
“Of all the paths you take in life, make sure a few of them are dirt.” John Muir
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09-28-2015, 03:39 PM
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#42
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Sep 2012
Location: Seattle
Posts: 6,023
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I am kind of glad we have not sold our (paid for) home yet. If I had had that money a few weeks ago, I would already be losing it in the market.
Maybe by the time we sell, I can buy SPY for $150.
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09-28-2015, 03:54 PM
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#43
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Moderator Emeritus
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: New Orleans
Posts: 47,500
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 Quote:
Originally Posted by Fermion
I am kind of glad we have not sold our (paid for) home yet. If I had had that money a few weeks ago, I would already be losing it in the market.
Maybe by the time we sell, I can buy SPY for $150.
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I'm scheduled to DCA part of the money from selling my house last month, on Wednesday. Hmm! Looks pretty good to me.  But then again, with my luck the market will bounce back with a vengeance by then. 
Either way, that's the plan.
__________________
Already we are boldly launched upon the deep; but soon we shall be lost in its unshored, harbourless immensities. - - H. Melville, 1851.
Happily retired since 2009, at age 61. Best years of my life by far!
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09-28-2015, 05:49 PM
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#44
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: May 2008
Location: No fixed abode
Posts: 8,765
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It's funny, I see all the posts about the market ignoring good news and only reacting to the bad. But for the past 3 years or so all I could see was the market going up on bad news, no news, and good news. But it really would jump up on bad news. I don't think there's really any correlation between the news and the market's direction. It's always made me laugh to listen to the heads "explaining" why the market did whatever it did that day. No matter what it did, they always "know" the reason. I'm not sure why they aren't all rich and retired.
__________________
"Good judgment comes from experience. Experience comes from bad judgement." - Anonymous (not Will Rogers or Sam Clemens)
DW and I - FIREd at 50 (7/06), living off assets
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09-28-2015, 08:41 PM
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#45
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 4,366
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I just started some tax loss harvesting today. Almost anything with oil or emerging markets looks like a good candidate.
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09-29-2015, 05:19 AM
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#46
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: May 2014
Location: Utrecht
Posts: 2,650
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Quote:
Originally Posted by harley
It's always made me laugh to listen to the heads "explaining" why the market did whatever it did that day.
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An "financial" newspaper out here hit new lows last week: first they were claiming that the market would fall once the Fed raises interest rates. Then, when the Fed didn't raise rates the markets fell anyway.
Now they are claiming the markets are falling because the Fed didn''t raise interest rates  (supposedly it indicates a weak economy etc ..)
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09-29-2015, 05:35 AM
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#47
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: May 2015
Location: Atlanta suburbs
Posts: 633
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Even after yesterday's decline
Shiller PE10 at 23.89
Mean 16.63
Median 16.01
S&P500 PE 18.96
Mean 15.55
Median 14.60
A simple calculation (18.96-15.55)/15.55*100 = 21.92% over-valued
But it's still painful to watch money evaporate, so a good thing to do is to look away till Jan 1 or whenever it is time to re-balance.
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09-29-2015, 09:32 AM
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#48
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Dec 2008
Location: On a hill in the Pine Barrens
Posts: 9,719
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PE10 won't move much in a day, since it is a 10 year average.
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09-29-2015, 09:35 AM
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#49
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Mar 2011
Posts: 8,413
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DEC-1982
But it's still painful to watch money evaporate, so a good thing to do is to look away till Jan 1 or whenever it is time to re-balance.
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Good thing quarterly dividends come in tomorrow night. Some salvation there. (but not much) The "income property" (equities) value has dropped but at least the rent keeps coming in!
__________________
Living well is the best revenge!
Retired @ 52 in 2005
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09-29-2015, 09:53 AM
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#50
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Aug 2013
Posts: 484
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By design, we've got several years worth of funds earmarked for withdrawals in cash or guaranteed (low yield) funds. Up until recently I was not sure if that was smart or not... now 1.75% return on the guaranteed funds looks pretty fabulous. Still wonder what the current thrashing of equities means for us down the road. Probably could re-think taking SS at FRA and push out needing to sell any stocks for quite a few years, but you know what? I'm starting to think this time actually might just be "different", as in recovery might be painfully slow. But I guess first things first, we have yet to find solid enough footing to have any confidence of knowing where the bottom is.
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09-29-2015, 10:02 AM
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#51
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Feb 2014
Location: Williston, FL
Posts: 3,925
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Theseus
now 1.75% return on the guaranteed funds looks pretty fabulous.
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Exactly. I paid off a $188K mortgage last year at 5.5%, and that seems like a great investment too. Working on another $160K to be paid off by FIRE date next year.
Of course, this may be the market correction we all laugh about in a few months. (I think Japan has been waiting to start laughing at their bear market)
__________________
FIRE no later than 7/5/2016 at 56 (done), securing '16 401K match (done), getting '15 401K match (done), LTI Bonus (done), Perf bonus (done), maxing out 401K (done), picking up 1,000 hours to get another year of pension (done), July 1st benefits (vacation day, healthcare) (done), July 4th holiday. 0 days left. (done) OFFICIALLY RETIRED 7/5/2016!!
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09-29-2015, 10:22 AM
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#52
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: May 2015
Location: Atlanta suburbs
Posts: 633
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Theseus
By design, we've got several years worth of funds earmarked for withdrawals in cash or guaranteed (low yield) funds. Up until recently I was not sure if that was smart or not... now 1.75% return on the guaranteed funds looks pretty fabulous.
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+1
In the same boat, cash available for several years.
I had been wondering about the wisdom of lots of cash but I am not doing so any longer. It reduces stress significantly.
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09-29-2015, 10:34 AM
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#53
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Moderator Emeritus
Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 17,774
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Quote:
Originally Posted by W2R
I'm scheduled to DCA part of the money from selling my house last month, on Wednesday. Hmm! Looks pretty good to me. But then again, with my luck the market will bounce back with a vengeance by then.
Either way, that's the plan. |
The whee-oracle of e-r.org has spoken! Watch out for Wednesday! 
__________________
“Would you like an adventure now, or would you like to have your tea first?” J.M. Barrie, Peter Pan
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09-29-2015, 01:15 PM
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#54
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: May 2014
Location: Utrecht
Posts: 2,650
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Carl Icahn put up a video. He talks about a bubble in high yield bonds (and other stuff - sorry for that).
Carl Icahn
You may like him (or not), but he is a smart guy.
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09-29-2015, 02:06 PM
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#55
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Dryer sheet aficionado
Join Date: Mar 2011
Location: New York
Posts: 44
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Quote:
Originally Posted by target2019
PE10 won't move much in a day, since it is a 10 year average.
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The "E" is a 10 year average, but the "P" is the current price. So, yes, it can move a lot in a day.
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09-30-2015, 04:49 AM
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#56
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Dec 2008
Location: On a hill in the Pine Barrens
Posts: 9,719
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How much is a lot as defined for a day? I only look at the month end data.
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09-30-2015, 05:58 AM
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#57
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: May 2008
Posts: 7,437
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CNBC -- yes I know, I know -- said there is capitalmpreservation going on.
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09-30-2015, 07:01 AM
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#58
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: May 2014
Location: Utrecht
Posts: 2,650
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Quote:
Originally Posted by target2019
How much is a lot as defined for a day? I only look at the month end data.
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Anywhere from -10% to +10%
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...%26P_500_Index
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09-30-2015, 08:42 PM
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#59
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 35,712
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Totoro
An "financial" newspaper out here hit new lows last week: first they were claiming that the market would fall once the Fed raises interest rates. Then, when the Fed didn't raise rates the markets fell anyway.
Now they are claiming the markets are falling because the Fed didn''t raise interest rates (supposedly it indicates a weak economy etc ..) |
There's some truth to it. The market did not tank until Yellen gave a press conference explaining her reason for not raising interest rates. I did not listen to the entire speech, but it scared people into thinking "maybe the Fed knows something I don't". Then, they sold.
__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky (1879-1940)
"Those Who Can Make You Believe Absurdities Can Make You Commit Atrocities" - Voltaire (1694-1778)
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10-05-2015, 08:32 AM
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#60
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: May 2008
Posts: 7,437
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Still a roller coaster, including Friday being the biggest swing in 4 years.
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