EvrClrx311
Full time employment: Posting here.
- Joined
- Feb 8, 2012
- Messages
- 648
I know market timing isn't popular here, but I think this might be a good place to get some sound advice on getting cash back into equities with the markets as red as they are. The collective knowledge and experience here is incredibly rich...
In general I don't believe in timing markets (but I did this time). I'm young enough (40) that I figured I'd give it a shot when I saw how outrageous PE numbers were last fall. I pulled my 401k (about half a million) out of the markets last August through Nov in 4 chucks, I'm currently sitting 100% in cash for that account, ignoring all the articles screaming that cash is burning right now from inflation... I've been waiting for re-entry lower. We're much lower now, almost 20%). My average exit price from the markets was with SPY at 437, and today we're coming up on testing new lows, and the economy looks to be headed even further south. Anyone's guess, right?
I am just old enough to have experienced two major downturns (the 2000 and 2008) and from that experience I know that markets tend to get to the point where everyone things "this time it's different, everything is going to stay down or go lower forever"... it doesn't seem like we've seen that yet.
I'm not trying to time a bottom, I'm not wanting to be greedy. As you can see above I have a baked in opinion we're headed lower (a lot lower)... my main question is, what kind of signs do you look for in a recession/bear market for good entries?
In general I don't believe in timing markets (but I did this time). I'm young enough (40) that I figured I'd give it a shot when I saw how outrageous PE numbers were last fall. I pulled my 401k (about half a million) out of the markets last August through Nov in 4 chucks, I'm currently sitting 100% in cash for that account, ignoring all the articles screaming that cash is burning right now from inflation... I've been waiting for re-entry lower. We're much lower now, almost 20%). My average exit price from the markets was with SPY at 437, and today we're coming up on testing new lows, and the economy looks to be headed even further south. Anyone's guess, right?
I am just old enough to have experienced two major downturns (the 2000 and 2008) and from that experience I know that markets tend to get to the point where everyone things "this time it's different, everything is going to stay down or go lower forever"... it doesn't seem like we've seen that yet.
I'm not trying to time a bottom, I'm not wanting to be greedy. As you can see above I have a baked in opinion we're headed lower (a lot lower)... my main question is, what kind of signs do you look for in a recession/bear market for good entries?