Timing the market and elections

[FIREmenow]

NO POLITICS!!

Listening to some financial talking heads this weekend, and they were discussing that no matter who wins, there will be some sort of perturbation in the market that would eventually go the opposite way longer term. Sounded interesting. I'm not a market-timer, tho.

As an aside, they were also observing stocks whose companies would benefit from either candidate winning, and watching who was buying what as a possible indicator of how the electorate will vote.

 

[pb4uski]

I'm a long term investor, not a market timer... I'll stay the course and keep a broadly diversified equity portfolio.

 

[REWahoo]

NO POLITICS!!

...

 

[MichaelB]

I changed the thread title. Nothing like the aroma of freshly cooked bacon in the morning, though.

 

[braumeister]

Listening to some financial talking heads this weekend, and they were discussing that no matter who wins, there will be some sort of perturbation in the market

Well, yes. That's how they make their money -- by telling you something you already knew, then generating a fog of verbiage they can cherry-pick later to show how they predicted what happened. Best to simply ignore them.

 

[HadEnuff]

i was at a social gathering on the eve of the last election, and a guy who made his money by managing other people's money was going on about how if Obama got elected he was advising all of his clients to get completely out of the market.
I have wondered if he actually did that, and if so, if he has any clients left.

My take: same old, same old. Be comfortable with your asset allocations and let the world keep on spinning.

 

[aja8888]

I'm a long term investor, not a market timer... I'll stay the course and keep a broadly diversified equity portfolio.

Wise man! That's my plan, unless I slide into panic mode!

 

[Car-Guy]

They have been talking about this for months. Everytime the polls change a point or two they change their rhetoric to fit their agenda. One of the main reasons I have quit watching much news these days. For me I haven't changed how I buy and sell.

 

[Totoro]

I did buy a new supply of cash covered puts on the S&P slightly ahead of my scheduled buy date (mid November).

Only reason was the recent small dip, I was first planning on wait&see given the Brexit experience.

I might be spectacularly wrong. One up for investing (speculating?) mistakes then.

 

[marko]

Just hoping that on Wednesday the markets calm down and get on with it instead of swinging wildly with every little poll change.

 

[Another Reader]

I think we may have some instability because of the emotional content of this election. I hope a lot of effort is expended by all parties on reconciliation and working together after the election is over. That will go a long way towards stabilizing the financial markets.

 

[Lsbcal]

I know who will win and where the market is going after that event. But I can't tell you guys until after it's over.

 

[COcheesehead]

Rebalance, keep investing, tax loss harvest. Repeat.

 

[LOL!]

I am going to put this in my market timing newsletter later this week, but I'll give you all an early peek:

I noticed this weekend that with the recent slight dip in the stock market indexes that I am underweight in equities. I believe some of this is because of changed perceptions of the outcome of the election. However, news from this weekend leaves the outcome in absolutely no doubt, so on Monday (tomorrow), I will be buying equities to rebalance my asset allocation back to its desired levels.

The market hates uncertainty and since things will be certain later this week, the market is going to pop up.

 

[rodi]

I'm sticking to my Asset Allocation and periodic rebalancing on a schedule. I rebalance annually or if any of my bands are out by more than 5%... So unless the election knocks it out a lot - no rebalancing for me.

 

[kcowan]

Have already sold my losers and sitting on cash for reinvestment later in November. My extent of market timing! If the market turns up, great! If it continues to slide, I will wait for a while.

 

[DrRoy]

No market timing for me either.

 

[Dawg52]

No market timing for me either, I just haven't reinvested the proceeds from previous sales.

 

[bob boag]

Lately the market tanks after an 8-year term. 2000, 2008, 2016?

I did a very un-Bogleheaded thing (again) and parked my $3M in cash about three weeks ago. I already made $200k this year so I took the luxury of heading to safety. Stupid yes but I dodged a $20K loss so far.

When will I re-enter? After the market crashes, or the dust settles.

 

[tennisplyr]

No one knows, you do what you gotta do!

 

[Another Reader]

Lately the market tanks after an 8-year term. 2000, 2008, 2016?

I did a very un-Bogleheaded thing (again) and parked my $3M in cash about three weeks ago. I already made $200k this year so I took the luxury of heading to safety. Stupid yes but I dodged a $20K loss so far.

When will I re-enter? After the market crashes, or the dust settles.

I think a lot of people will wake up tomorrow and decide to do the same thing. My guess is we will have a down day tomorrow. What happens the rest of the week and the rest of the year is anybody's guess at this point.

 

[bob boag]

Do you use a two-handed backhand?

 

[LOL!]

Futures show about a 1.5% pop already. Oh, well … I thought folks could at least wait until Tuesday to start buying.

 

[Daniel J]

I've been buying stocks on down days the last week or so. Nothing significant, just some regular contributions that need to be made sooner or later.

 

[haha]

NO POLITICS!!

Listening to some financial talking heads this weekend, and they were discussing that no matter who wins, there will be some sort of perturbation in the market that would eventually go the opposite way longer term. Sounded interesting. I'm not a market-timer, tho.

As an aside, they were also observing stocks whose companies would benefit from either candidate winning, and watching who was buying what as a possible indicator of how the electorate will vote.

Why does a person write NO POLITICS! followed by a post that is about elections?

Ha