Today is always the hardest day to buy!

[nash031]

I have a cash allocation of roughly 10% overall right now thanks to the sale of our primary home last month. I sank 10% of that 10% in at the first 10% dip. I sank another 17% of that 10% in today, with 10% going US and 7% going international. I'll keep buying all the way down to 0% cash if the market continues down... which I hope it does right in advance of bonus season!

[NYEXPAT]

Quote:

Originally Posted by gstillson I bought 1000 shares of Celgene near end of day for $66.80 It was like bargain day.

Wish you luck with that! But with your performance YTD probably won't need it!

[steelyman]

Quote:

Originally Posted by audreyh1 Sure, which is why I rebalance rather than market time..

That’s the best way to stay sane and on track. I’ll be withdrawing some amount in mid-December, directed by what my allocation spreadsheet says. It’s bounced around a lot recently so is interesting to watch, but I do best as a robot.

[NW-Bound]

After posting on this thread about perhaps buying something, I went out to the backyard to work on my project, and when I got back inside the market had closed for an hour. So, did not buy anything. Maybe tomorrow.

Apple dropped another 4.8% today. From its top valuation, it has lost $215 billion. It's huge. Trillion-dollar company no more.

In comparison, the GDP of Vietnam is only $224 billion, and that of New Zealand is $206 billion.

Totally amazing.

[audreyh1]

Quote:

Originally Posted by steelyman That’s the best way to stay sane and on track. I’ll be withdrawing some amount in mid-December, directed by what my allocation spreadsheet says. It’s bounced around a lot recently so is interesting to watch, but I do best as a robot.

It’s actually the only way I can stay sane investing. It also lets me ignore the markets for long periods, and otherwise treat it as a spectator sport.

Yep - robotic and very low maintenance...

[COcheesehead]

I have my asset allocation, but if I am looking to use cash, I look at a simple indicator. It flashed buy in ‘08/‘09, ‘11 and ‘15. It’s not flashing buy now, but it may soon.

[Free bird]

The US central bank intervention has never been done before & probably will not happen again. It altered the financial landscape. Your part of an experiment. The economy is different now. It feels synthetic.

[Free bird]

Oh good. Someone has a flashing light. I need one of those. Do they have them on Amazon?

[COcheesehead]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Free bird Oh good. Someone has a flashing light. I need one of those. Do they have them on Amazon?

[Free bird]

January was a big month this year. We might get another one next year.

[Free bird]

I want a report as soon as you get the buy with both hands signal. Lets do this

[COcheesehead]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Free bird I want a report as soon as you get the buy with both hands signal. Lets do this

It’s reported every day. There’s even a common investment rhyme about it, but you want to make fun of it and drop your bird poop on my posts, you get no soup. Step aside.

[RAE]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Free bird The US central bank intervention has never been done before & probably will not happen again. It altered the financial landscape. Your part of an experiment.

Yep, totally agree. The experiment will either work out just fine, or it won't, but we can't look back at market history for guidance in this case, IMO.

[Free bird]

Your a bird hater. I will find you & I will shred your cheddar

[Free bird]

Watching too many Liam Neeson movies

[HFWR]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Free bird Watching too many Liam Neeson movies

Two?

[Free bird]

Oh was it two?

[copyright1997reloaded]

So what seems like forever ago, I posted this chart (now updated): thinkorswim Sharing

At that time, I was babbling on about the wedge and that usually the break out on it is positive, and that is why I thought (in February/March/April) that the market would reach new highs (which it did). It also puts into perspective a few other things:
1) The SP 500 2800 level was the ceiling after the initial down blast in February, was broken though in July, and then acted as a floor in August and then after breaking it again (on the downside) in October a ceiling on both attempts to rally back.

2) We still haven't retested the February lows. I know it seems much more painful than those February lows, and it seems like things have really fallen apart...but taking $AAPL as an example, in Feb Apple hit $150.24 at the low, and even after falling off the cliff lately it closed at $176.98 today. NFLX is up about 5% from the February low. INTC (Intel) was $42.04 in Feb, $47.39 today. Walmart (WMT) hit $81.78 in May, $94.16 today.

So why does it seem worse? I know for me, I was calling for a further breakout (upward) in November/December, and that hasn't happened (and I've sold a bunch of things accordingly). While I sold some things in January of the year, I also sold on a number of occasions (mostly in a 401k so tax deferred) to lock in some gains. Part of my rationale is 3+% on safe money as a draw, but part is also fear/wanting to have even more cash to invest if we see significantly lower levels).

I am also concerned on what I am starting to see on the debt front, where unlike earlier 'buy the dips' opportunities, credit seems to be telling me that a storm might be brewing. Take a look at the Vanguard High Yield bond fund: thinkorswim Sharing. The trend is not our friend there.

So, I am conflicted. How many people out there were saying to themselves (when Apple was $232) - "Man, if it would only sell off to $180 I would be jumping on it". Well, it is there - are they jumping on it? That is why timing is so difficult - when the prices drop there is usually some reason, whether real or imagined. So I find myself worried and wanting to sell, but at the same time thinking about things that are bargains and that I should be assembling a buy list. (I have bought some things - knives slicing through my fingers as the stocks fall even further.)

[COcheesehead]

I sold all my junk bonds, most of my floating rate. Equities are the minority of my AA. The only thing green on my screen these days are my individual bond holdings. I am almost flat on the year, but it feels different. Rallies are being sold. Buying the dip, that worked for almost 10 years, doesn’t any longer.Taking risk right now is not your friend. There will be a time for that again in the future.

[NYEXPAT]

I finally got a "buy signal" on Monday morning and increased AA from 18% to 50%. The 32% increase was divided between the QQQ and SPY. I am only looking for a move to the 200 day MA in advance of the impending "Death Cross".