Twitter’s last financial filing (
here), 2Q 2022, for the quarter ending June 30, is very informative.
Twitter’s ongoing expense run rate was about $1.5B for the quarter, and 1/3 of that was classified as R&D, so about $1B in quarterly operational expense. It had close to $6B in cash and short term marketable securities. Revenue was $1.1B, of which $1.0B was advertising.
So, Twitter can lose its entire advertising income for a year, and fund operations for that entire year, still meet all its financial obligations, cover all debt maturing within 2 years, and remain solvent. That’s plenty of time to take it apart and rebuild a successful business. I’d say the critical challenge right now is to keep it operating while that rebuilding takes place and not let the users move elsewhere. That seems achievable.
It needs to get advertising revenue back over $1B and growing to be a viable business, and it needs to generate enough cash to pay the assumed debt along with the money borrowed to finance the purchase. That also seems achievable.
The cost of all the separations is unknown, and could be an issue. There was lots of stock based compensation, and it’s not clear what the current cost of that is. Still, even with that, Twitter could reduce its workforce by half without jeopardizing it’s ability to operate at a bare bones level.
If new Twitter is a copy of old Twitter with new management, this will have been a colossal waste of money and probably generate a fair amount of ill will. If new Twitter is different in a meaningful way and also a viable business, we may conclude it was a painful approach to a difficult challenge that worked and provided a bit of entertainment value along the way.