Join Early Retirement Today
Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
Vanguard “Updates to our forecasting model”
Old 10-16-2020, 07:56 PM   #1
Dryer sheet aficionado
 
Join Date: Dec 2018
Posts: 35
Vanguard “Updates to our forecasting model”

Anyone else receive this message from Vanguard advisor?

They are lowering expectations, which isn’t a surprise after the Fed printed a few trillion dollars.

Moved most of my retirement funds there since April. We are up about 10% since then, and happier with the much lower fees.
a60dan is offline   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Old 10-17-2020, 07:52 AM   #2
Dryer sheet wannabe
 
Join Date: Apr 2012
Posts: 18
I received an email that my Vanguard advisor requested to set up a call with me. I have not had that happen before. I scheduled it for next week.
Wille is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-17-2020, 12:47 PM   #3
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Lsbcal's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: west coast, hi there!
Posts: 7,124
Quote:
Originally Posted by a60dan View Post
Anyone else receive this message from Vanguard advisor?

They are lowering expectations, which isn’t a surprise after the Fed printed a few trillion dollars.

Moved most of my retirement funds there since April. We are up about 10% since then, and happier with the much lower fees.
Are you using their advisory service and thus got this message as part of that?

I haven't received any special communication from VG. I don't really follow their guesses on future performance but will occasionally read one of their articles.
Lsbcal is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-18-2020, 06:14 AM   #4
Dryer sheet aficionado
 
Join Date: Dec 2018
Posts: 35
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lsbcal View Post
Are you using their advisory service and thus got this message as part of that?
Yes.

Subsequently I received a message from the advisor himself suggesting that if I have any concerns to make an appointment.

Our “probability of success” has dropped from 93% to 87%.

I think it’s just that they’re adjusting their algorithms because they consider the recent stock market gains unsustainable and perhaps overweighted in the algorithms.

I’m still hedging with gold and dabbling (purely as a hobby) with Bitcoin, and he knows it.

Still “staying the course” as he recommended in the personal email.
a60dan is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-18-2020, 06:57 AM   #5
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Sep 2018
Location: High Plains Non-Drifter
Posts: 258
Quote:
Originally Posted by a60dan View Post
Yes.

Our “probability of success” has dropped from 93% to 87%.
We are huge Vanguard fans but have never made use of their advisor services, so we never receive communications like this from them.

As to retirement planning, I've always found their free online tools (e.g., the "Retirement Income Planner") to be pretty primitive generally, and restrictive as to inputs. Perhaps it is that way intentionally to drive customers to fee-based advice. Financial planning for retirement is perhaps the only thing I don't use Vanguard for, which is yet another reason why I'm so thankful for this site and tools like FIRECalc.
WyomingLife is offline   Reply With Quote
Vanguard “Updates to our forecasting model”
Old 10-18-2020, 08:03 AM   #6
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Markola's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2013
Posts: 1,590
Vanguard “Updates to our forecasting model”

Sure enough, our Success likelihood score is down to 81% from 92% with no changes on our end. I wrote to our advisor to clarify and will report here what he says.
Markola is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 10-18-2020, 11:29 AM   #7
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
mickeyd's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2004
Location: South Texas~29N/98W Just West of Woman Hollering Creek
Posts: 6,385
Quote:
Subsequently I received a message from the advisor himself suggesting that if I have any concerns to make an appointment.
That's good to know. Folks that are paying 30bps for that service should receive timley advice that helps them understand what is going on in the markets.
__________________
Part-Owner of Texas

Outside of a dog, a book is man's best friend. Inside of a dog, it's too dark to read. Groucho Marx

In dire need of: faster horses, younger woman, older whiskey, more money.
mickeyd is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-18-2020, 06:04 PM   #8
Confused about dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Oct 2020
Posts: 4
The forecast is likely due to the zero or negative bond yields. That greatly reduces future income and gains in bonds. Meanwhile stock investors have noticed and bid stock prices up. So their forecast is credible (which is of course completely different than saying it will turn out to be right.)
Exchme is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-20-2020, 08:37 PM   #9
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Markola's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2013
Posts: 1,590
Here’s the reply from our VG advisor:

“... Why did Vanguard’s market forecasts change?

We update our expectations regularly because market fluctuations are normal. In this case, a combination of the following conditions caused us to change our forecasts:

· Equity markets fared exceedingly well over the last decade, rising over 10% a year, on average.
· Given already elevated equity valuations, returns over the next decade are anticipated to be more modest.
· Our expectations for fixed income returns have fallen due to declining interest rates...”
Markola is online now   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
index of research articles on Epidemic Forecasting Bongleur COVID-19 | Containment Area 0 04-21-2020 01:43 PM
"Updates to Our Privacy Policy" CoolRich59 Other topics 6 06-02-2018 11:07 AM
Vanguard "role model" article REWahoo FIRE and Money 7 01-15-2014 09:53 AM
SS forecasting questions FIREmenow FIRE and Money 16 05-12-2013 07:58 AM
"Guru Stock Market Forecasting Grades" Nords FIRE and Money 18 11-05-2006 01:28 PM

» Quick Links

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 08:35 AM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2020, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.