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Watching today's rate decision was fun
Old 12-19-2018, 01:02 PM   #1
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Watching today's rate decision was fun

It is just boggling how fast the market moves. In seconds the DJI went from the 200s to the upper 300s then down to lower 100s.

All this before I could even figure out what the rate move was.
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Old 12-19-2018, 01:22 PM   #2
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And what was the rate move ?
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Old 12-19-2018, 01:24 PM   #3
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And what was the rate move ?
Increase this time and forecasting two next year.
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Old 12-19-2018, 01:26 PM   #4
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up 0.25 % as expected
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Old 12-19-2018, 01:27 PM   #5
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up 25 bps, but isn't the bigger deal that any good news which results in a temporary move upward keeps reverting back more negative. Not a good sign.
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Old 12-19-2018, 01:27 PM   #6
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Just wait until chairman opens his mouth to the press.
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Old 12-19-2018, 02:13 PM   #7
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I heard some mention that it's not just the interest rates but the Fed plans to reduce the size of the balance sheet from the QE years.

So that will cause additional reductions in the money supply.
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Old 12-19-2018, 02:24 PM   #8
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I heard some mention that it's not just the interest rates but the Fed plans to reduce the size of the balance sheet from the QE years.

So that will cause additional reductions in the money supply.
Correct/agree (as does several self proclaimed experts) tightening of the money supply (i.e. buying back the Trillion Dollar stimulus QE1,QE2 can't remember if there was a third... plus raising rates from negative rates to 2.5%+) too much or too quickly will have an adverse effect on growth to say the least.. and could/may/will result in a hastened greater great recession.

The Fed's crystal ball has been cloudy in the past.

They use old/current data to predict/project the future.....I heard they use a crystal ball and then verify/confirm with a ouija board....
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Old 12-19-2018, 02:37 PM   #9
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We of course know the rates have been ridiculously low for quite sometime. But with the planets lining up as they have, there's no reason for rates to rise. The stock market has already spoken over the past few weeks, and it's cost $ trillions out of pension values of the working class Americans. That's about as political as I'll ever get on here.
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Old 12-19-2018, 02:40 PM   #10
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Correct/agree (as does several self proclaimed experts) tightening of the money supply (i.e. buying back the Trillion Dollar stimulus QE1,QE2 can't remember if there was a third... plus raising rates from negative rates to 2.5%+) too much or too quickly will have an adverse effect on growth to say the least.. and could/may/will result in a hastened greater great recession.

The Fed's crystal ball has been cloudy in the past.

They use old/current data to predict/project the future.....I heard they use a crystal ball and then verify/confirm with a ouija board....

Yeah, I personally think they made a mistake today by both raising rates, and continuing to unwind the balance sheet. The economy is weakening, but most of the data they use apparently doesn't show it yet. But I'm not an economist, so what do I know......
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Old 12-19-2018, 02:41 PM   #11
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We of course know the rates have been ridiculously low for quite sometime. But with the planets lining up as they have, there's no reason for rates to rise. The stock market has already spoken over the past few weeks, and it's cost $ trillions out of pension values of the working class Americans. That's about as political as I'll ever get on here.
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Old 12-19-2018, 02:55 PM   #12
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Powell has refuted that balance sheet runoff is a problem.
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Old 12-19-2018, 02:59 PM   #13
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An economy dependent on 0% interest rates isn't robust, it's on life support.
Stock markets having a taper tantrum is not in the Fed's mandate of ""promote effectively the goals of maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long term interest rates".


As a side twist... why do we even have a Fed trying to control an economy by reading chicken entrails as a gauge of its a good omen or a bad omen? Let the market decide what rates should be.
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Old 12-19-2018, 03:09 PM   #14
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Nothing really special here. Of course a slowdown will be political fodder for 2020 and keeps people’s minds off of things to make everyone better off. Perhaps we will all have an opportunity to use some dry powder. Sigh.
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Old 12-19-2018, 03:11 PM   #15
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Powell has refuted that balance sheet runoff is a problem.
Still waiting for Santa?
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Old 12-19-2018, 03:11 PM   #16
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Maybe the fed is participating in mission overreach. The wheels did come off the banking system. Maybe they don't feel confident all the lug nuts are on & tight.
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Old 12-19-2018, 03:13 PM   #17
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Its hard to take the training wheels off after 10 years.
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Old 12-19-2018, 03:33 PM   #18
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Powell has refuted that balance sheet runoff is a problem.

Well, that's only a guess on his part, because this type of thing has never been done before - so we are in uncharted territory.
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Old 12-19-2018, 03:39 PM   #19
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We live in uncharted territory.
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Old 12-19-2018, 03:44 PM   #20
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