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Which megacap do you want to hold for the next year?
Old 10-28-2022, 03:19 AM   #1
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Which megacap do you want to hold for the next year?

This surfaced on Twitter:





From:

https://twitter.com/CPAinNYC/status/1585816969412214786

Guidance:


META:

"Our community continues to grow and I'm pleased with the strong engagement we're seeing driven by progress on our discovery engine and products like Reels," said Mark Zuckerberg, Meta founder and CEO. "While we face near-term challenges on revenue, the fundamentals are there for a return to stronger revenue growth. We're approaching 2023 with a focus on prioritization and efficiency that will help us navigate the current environment and emerge an even stronger company."

AAPL:
Apple did not provide official guidance for its first fiscal quarter, which ends in December and contains Apple’s biggest sales season of the year. It hasn’t provided guidance since 2020, citing uncertainty.

NFLX:

We forecast Q4’22 operating margin of 4% vs. 8% in the year ago period. The fourth quarter is typically
our lowest operating margin quarter of the year as it’s usually our largest quarter in terms of content and
marketing spend. In addition, the aforementioned F/X impact has a high flow through to operating
income (~75%-80% of the revenue impact) as most of our costs are in US dollars. Excluding the
year-over-year impact of F/X, our Q4’22 operating margin forecast would be 10% vs. 8% in Q4’21.


AMZN:

Net sales are expected to be between $140.0 billion and $148.0 billion, or to grow between 2% and 8% compared with
fourth quarter 2021. This guidance anticipates an unfavorable impact of approximately 460 basis points from foreign
exchange rates.
• Operating income is expected to be between $0 and $4.0 billion, compared with $3.5 billion in fourth quarter 2021.
• This guidance assumes, among other things, that no additional business acquisitions, restructurings, or legal
settlements are concluded.

GOOG:

Alphabet didn't provide forward guidance.

TSLA:

We plan to grow our manufacturing capacity as quickly as possible. Over a multi-year horizon, we expect to achieve 50% average annual growth in vehicle deliveries. The rate of growth will depend on our equipment capacity, factory uptime, operational efficiency and the capacity and stability of the supply chain.




Disclaimer: I've already placed my bet.
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Which megacap do you want to hold for the next year?
Old 10-28-2022, 05:58 AM   #2
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Which megacap do you want to hold for the next year?

I got in Netflix at around $240 .. will hold till it hits $500 next year. Should close the $350 gap soon. Reed Hastings bot 51,000+ shares near $400 .. i think it was $393/share. Netflix peaked at $700 .. should go back up near that
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Old 10-28-2022, 06:53 AM   #3
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P/E ratios as of close yesterday:

AMZN: 99.47
TSLA: 69.42
NFLX: 26.61
APPL: 23.89
GOOG: 18.39
META: 9.34

P/S ratio:

TSLA: 19.62
APPL: 6.14
NFLX: 4.47
GOOG: 4.36
AMZN: 2.34
META: 2.27
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Old 10-28-2022, 07:00 AM   #4
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If you put a gun to my head and made me buy one from that list it would be AAPL.
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Half answer
Old 10-28-2022, 12:49 PM   #5
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Half answer

If I had more than a year horizon....

Apple.

I'm not an Apple Fanboy - yes I use some of their products but I have no passion for tech gadgets one way or the other.

Apple owns its flock and said flock - regardless of the usual daily economic complaints about how hard it is - - will be upgrading and buying and app'ing.

India: Middle Class continues to grow and I-phone penetration is stir in its infancy. The trend-setter, new-money people there - having gone Apple and in most societies - that trickles down vis a vis brand cache.

Now for the nebulous reason.....

I can't imagine Apple via laptops and smartphones - is done.

I can't imagine they are building new offices and mini HQ's in areas like Raleigh - for no reason.

Cook once said that Apple's biggest contribution will be health care and I gotta think that's more than just what the I-watch does now. (Don't own one). So I just believe that something will come - will it be Augmented Reality for the masses? Some new health care tech or streamlining? Perhaps operating system with major car OEM? Has to be something.
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Old 10-28-2022, 01:21 PM   #6
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Apple, but they are above my price target, and I'm not chasing them.
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Old 10-28-2022, 01:26 PM   #7
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Nada. DH still has some AAPL from eons ago. But we don’t buy individual stocks anymore.
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Old 10-28-2022, 01:38 PM   #8
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I will buy AAPL. Target price is $125.
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Old 10-29-2022, 02:10 PM   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by audreyh1 View Post
Nada. DH still has some AAPL from eons ago. But we don’t buy individual stocks anymore.

I understand that it is not everyone's cup of tea. I used to be index funds only. But then I bought a Tesla. And 5 shares mostly for fun. Looked at their earning reports. Made a spreadsheet estimating the possibilities. Ended up with a and a graph similar to the one in the first post. So now my TSLA is about 60% of my investments.
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Old 10-29-2022, 02:15 PM   #10
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I just recently bought GOOG, MSFT, and META
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Old 10-29-2022, 05:53 PM   #11
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Holding on to my AAPL and not buying any more individual stocks, just ETFs. Sold my AMZN and GOOG before the pain began.
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Old 11-07-2022, 10:51 PM   #12
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Never owned any of the above stocks. I was just not interested.

Recently, looked at them, and found Apple and Google had the fundamentals (P/E, P/S vs. growth) that I could tolerate.

Two months ago, wrote 2 OTM puts on Google for a lark. Dang, the stock dropped below the strike price, and I found myself owning 200 shares. The price kept dropping, and now I wondered if that was a poor joke I played on myself. The price never turned bullish enough for me to sell some OTM calls to make a bit of money to make up for the loss.

Oh well ! I have to hold onto them longer to see what happens.
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Old 11-08-2022, 08:31 AM   #13
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The title should have been which "tech" stocks do you want to hold.

The current market is not favoring tech stocks but rather those oldies. I mean the value stocks. Example for the last 2 years:

Large cap value (VIVAX) up +25%
Large cap growth (VIGAX) down -12%
SP500 (FVIAX) up +7%

So I would be in value right now.
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Old 11-08-2022, 05:42 PM   #14
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Yes, it's the non-tech stocks that save the day for me.

And I dunno about calling them "value" stocks, as they are not cheap anymore. For example, Costco now has a P/E of 37.5, while Applied Material is at 13.
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Old 11-08-2022, 06:32 PM   #15
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I meant in an index sense, i.e. broadly speaking. Comparing growth stock index PE's to 2011 (as of this September), they were 50% higher. Value stocks were at the same PE level as in 2011.

Other recent factors are financials doing better (I think) because of rising rates making bank stocks go up. Also more energy stocks are in the value camp. I don't know where inflation is going but value stocks were out performers in the 1970's.

Since I'm not in individual stocks, I imagine their are exceptions in both value and growth. If you look at the VVIAX top 10 stocks they include stocks like United Health Group, Berkshire, JNJ, JP Morgan, Exxon Mobile, etc.

But I'm just trend following into the value stocks. The above are just supporting facts (excuses ) for my positions.
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Old 11-25-2022, 11:08 AM   #16
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Finally picked up some TSLA, long overdue.
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Old 11-25-2022, 11:13 AM   #17
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Got in NFLX when it was low $200 - will hold until above $450-$500. They lost 2 Million subscribers causing them to go from $700 to $170 (I think mostly Russians with the war), then they gained back 2.4 million subscribers, plus they have an ad based rate now.
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Old 11-26-2022, 11:22 AM   #18
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I am holding AAPL and added to AMZN post Q3 earnings release.

Thankfully, I am way overweight energy.
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Old 11-26-2022, 12:20 PM   #19
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Planning to keep my AAPL too. This company has a very loyal customer base. Plus, Apple has a lot of cash reserves. Maybe they'll buy another company in 2023.
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