Why the Melt Up...?

[MichaelB]

Quote:

Originally Posted by pb4uski It wasn't realistically possible for a country the size of the US to test and isolated as you previously advocated. Iceland has tested more than any country... but only 10% of its population... in a country with the population of Tulsa, OK. https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...ta/2959797001/ (emphasis added)

I agree with COcheesehead and figure it would cost money, but not as much as we're risking now by isolating everyone.

[steelyman]

I realized I hadn’t been taking advantage of the opportunity to make Roth contributions (not conversions) for the past couple of years so I opened a new Roth IRA at Fidelity and funded it for 2019. I bought one stock (Disney) already and have limit orders in to buy a few more at these lower prices. It’ll take for-never, but my goal is to slowly move stocks from taxable to tax-free.

That’s not exactly a response to melt-up but a little related in my view.

[jim584672]

I'm looking at S&P at around 2,800. That is an extremely high valuation considering earnings are dropping like a rock and not to far from the all time highs. I don't think this value is justified by the facts. The Fed induced sugar high will wear off, then things will get interesting.

[Sunset]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Running_Man The market is having a "melt-up?" We just finished the WORST first quarter in the history of the US stock market and the feeling is we are having a melt-up? .... Again I urge people to read the only time in history that came close to this current economic environment and read not some Nobel prize winning book but The Great Depression a Diary by Benjamin Roth. Back then it became impossible to collect rental income on properties. How long can the present high rents be sustained across the country with 36% unemployment?.......

Has it started, across the USA roughly 30% of renters didn't pay:

"Data from 13.4 million apartments across five real estate management software companies show 69% of renters made full or partial payments between April 1-5"

https://www.chicagotribune.com/coron...pvy-story.html

[Clone]

I suspect that there will be a number of sectors/ folks that are going to have a tough time:

Gig workers, side hustle, similar self directed jobs. Things like Lyft, Uber, bloggers, etc may be able to make it go when folks are flush with cash and the economy is rockin', but that ain't now.

Contract employees- A number of 1099 type jobs or jobs through contract houses could be in jeopardy. As industry tries to stop the bleeding, these are among the first to go.

Rental Real Estate- A number of tenants, both individuals and retail, are not going to survive the downturn. The over supply will depress the rates for awhile.

House flippers- Their business model works when you have a hot real estate market so you can sell the property before you have to start making payments on it. Any slowing of the market or depression of prices will slow these folks down quickly.

Houses for sale- in certain markets, taking the flippers out of the game will put some lower priced houses back on the market where ordinary folks might be able to see them. We re looking at some 55+, and expect to see 1) the number of new buyers drop (market crash + delayed retirement + uncertainty) 2) the number of sellers increase (existing attrition + any increased attrition + uncertainty). This may be enough to tip the scales from a seller's market to a buyer's market. Any drastic change in 1 or 2 could snowball into some serious discounting.

Real estate workers- We have seen real estate folks participating in the flipping game, they could get hurt by a sudden reversal of the market.

[RAE]

Quote:

Originally Posted by jim584672 I'm looking at S&P at around 2,800. That is an extremely high valuation considering earnings are dropping like a rock and not to far from the all time highs. I don't think this value is justified by the facts. The Fed induced sugar high will wear off, then things will get interesting.

Agreed. The market is apparently reacting mostly to what the FED is doing (and also to the short-lived news about an oil deal), but once it becomes clear just how bad unemployment and business closings are, and with no prospect for those things improving for the next several months (minimum), the market is going to have to head back downward. You can only stay detached from reality for so long........

[COcheesehead]

Quote:

Originally Posted by pb4uski It wasn't realistically possible for a country the size of the US to test and isolated as you previously advocated. Iceland has tested more than any country... but only 10% of its population... in a country with the population of Tulsa, OK. https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...ta/2959797001/ (emphasis added)

You don’t test “everybody”. There are indicators of the virus. When these are evident, you test, find contacts of the individual, test those as well and then isolate. Other countries have had success with this method.

Instead, we take the TSA route. #whenwillwelearn

[RAE]

Quote:

Originally Posted by COcheesehead It was known for months before it hit here and a test exists.

+1. You can bet they knew about this virus back in December when it was starting to cause big problems in China (if not earlier), and were tracking it closely. Risk assessments were being circulated among our fearless leaders back in early January, but they were largely ignored by those responsible for decision-making. I don't want to get political, but we don't have a lot of people in leadership positions these days that are very literate in science (to put it mildly), and who understand what can happen when potentially threatening situations like this come along. So, at least two months were wasted, denying that the "Chinese" problem would ever affect us, and now we are paying the price for that. South Korea, on the other hand, jumped into testing very early, and as a result, they have fared much better.
So, let's not pretend that the US could not have done any better with testing, and recognizing the seriousness of this, much earlier.....of course we could have done better.

[statsman]

Quote:

Originally Posted by RAE I don't want to get political ...

You did.

[JustCurious]

Quote:

Originally Posted by PatrickW I'm beginning to wonder if this whole Coronavirus thing wasn't over hyped a bit, and that it's starting to fizzle out.

Yep.

[pb4uski]

Quote:

Originally Posted by COcheesehead You don’t test “everybody”. There are indicators of the virus. When these are evident, you test, find contacts of the individual, test those as well and then isolate. Other countries have had success with this method. Instead, we take the TSA route. #whenwillwelearn

The problem with your theory is that there are NOT indicators of the virus as you claim so you would have to test everyone... that is the problem... someone can be infected and perfect asymptomatic and unknowingly going about their normal business and spreading the virus.

BTW, I'm not saying that we could not have done better and more to mitigate the crisis earlier... its just that no matter how much money you threw at testing that you could not have tested and back traced enough in a country of 335 million to avoid the spread... even today there isn't sufficient testing capacity to do as you suggest.

[pb4uski]

Quote:

Originally Posted by PatrickW ....I'm beginning to wonder if this whole Coronavirus thing wasn't over hyped a bit, and that it's starting to fizzle out. Not sure what to believe anymore when it comes to the news coverage....

I learned a new word for such thinking yesterday.... covidiot... look it up.

[COcheesehead]

Quote:

Originally Posted by pb4uski The problem with your theory is that there are NOT indicators of the virus as you claim so you would have to test everyone... that is the problem... someone can be infected and perfect asymptomatic and unknowingly going about their normal business and spreading the virus. BTW, I'm not saying that we could not have done better and more to mitigate the crisis earlier... its just that no matter how much money you threw at testing that you could not have tested and back traced enough in a country of 335 million to avoid the spread... even today there isn't sufficient testing capacity to do as you suggest.

LOL, OK. Even as other countries prove otherwise.

[pb4uski]

Ok... do you have credible citations for your claim that there are indicators of asymptomatic carriers of the virus. If so, now would be the time to put up....

[COcheesehead]

Quote:

Originally Posted by pb4uski Ok... do you have credible citations for your claim that there are indicators of asymptomatic carriers of the virus. If so, now would be the time to put up....

Why don’t you quote me? Just curious.

[pb4uski]

Perhaps I could... where did you get your MD?

[COcheesehead]

Quote:

Originally Posted by pb4uski Perhaps I could... where did you get your MD?

You already got a post deleted from this thread. Stop. Think. Relax.

[pb4uski]

Well, if there was a post deleted I never received notice of it from any of the mods... and I normally would... so it sounds like you are making stuff up again.

Like the assertion that there are "indicators" for asymptomatic people that could be used to target COVID testing... still waiting for support for that claim.

I'm very relaxed. Have a good night. Sweet dreams.

[COcheesehead]

Quote:

Originally Posted by pb4uski Well, if there was a post deleted I never received notice of it from any of the mods... and I normally would... so it sounds like you are making stuff up again. Like the assertion that there are "indicators" for asymptomatic people that could be used to target COVID testing... still waiting for support for that claim. I'm very relaxed. Have a good night. Sweet dreams.

Calling someone a covididiot? Sound familiar? Now I know you are liar. Sad.

[pb4uski]

Unlike you, I'm usually pretty careful about such things... I'm sure that I was referring to a post and not the poster/person.

So I would have referred to a specific post as being a lie rather than calling a member a liar like you just did.