Will We Get A Santa Rally in 2022?

[eytonxav]

Quote:

Originally Posted by mcbraemer Buy individual bonds, of non-junk variety, with an acceptable effective rate of return,. Plan on holding until maturity. Unless they default (rare), you will enjoy the monthly, quarterly or whatever cash flow into your account. You may decide to sell some or all at a profit, should the Fed rate fall below the rate on your date of bond purchase The more it falls the higher the bond value at sale. Or simply hold them to maturity at which time standard issue bonds will return face value. There are other types, so do your education homework before taking the plunge.

Are you referring to treasury bonds or corporates?

[COcheesehead]

Technically the traditional definition of the Santa Claus rally is the last 5 trading days of this year and the first 2 of next year.

[Car-Guy]

Quote:

Originally Posted by COcheesehead Technically the traditional definition of the Santa Claus rally is the last 5 trading days of this year and the first 2 of next year.

I never knew that there was actually a technical definition... I always thought it was the week or two before Christmas... IMO, I guess I'd call it a SC rally if I made a lot of money in the market anytime in late Dec.

But according to Investopedia it says:

"A Santa Claus rally describes a sustained increase in the stock market that occurs in the week leading up to Dec. 25. However, there seems to be some disagreement over whether these rallies happen in the week leading up to Christmas, or if it's the week after Christmas until Jan 2."

[COcheesehead]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Car-Guy I never knew that there was actually a technical definition... I always thought it was the week or two before Christmas... IMO, I guess I'd call it a SC rally if I made a lot of money in the market anytime in late Dec. But according to Investopedia it says: "A Santa Claus rally describes a sustained increase in the stock market that occurs in the week leading up to Dec. 25. However, there seems to be some disagreement over whether these rallies happen in the week leading up to Christmas, or if it's the week after Christmas until Jan 2."

According to Wiki, it’s as I said. Last 5 of the current year and the first 2 of the new year.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Santa_Claus_rally

An additional article on the history of it defining it as the last 5 and the first 2.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock...105758501.html

[Car-Guy]

Quote:

Originally Posted by COcheesehead According to Wiki, it’s as I said. Last 5 of the current year and the first 2 of the new year. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Santa_Claus_rally An additional article on the history of it defining it as the last 5 and the first 2. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock...105758501.html

I like my definition the best!

"IMO, I guess I'd call it a SC rally if I made a lot of money in the market anytime in late Dec. "

[audreyh1]

First two trading days of the year are Jan 3&4 FWIW. Jan 1 is a Sunday so markets are closed on Jan 2 for the holiday instead.

[Car-Guy]

Quote:

Originally Posted by audreyh1 First two trading days of the year are Jan 3&4 FWIW. Jan 1 is a Sunday so markets are closed on Jan 2 for the holiday instead.

[audreyh1]

Same with Christmas I suppose. Should just be 4 trading days week after Christmas this year.

These definitions need work!

[TheWizard]

Quote:

Originally Posted by COcheesehead I think there is a whole bunch of tax loss selling going on or about to happen. I also think a lot of money is leaving the market and going into bonds. All of that will force the market to some level that will appear to some to be a value and they will buy. So will the market go up to end the year? Possibly, but from what level.

I've done a fair amount of TLHing in the he past few weeks, but it's all been done with a pair of market orders, for example selling VGT and then buying a similar amount of QQQ within ten minutes of each other...

[COcheesehead]

Quote:

Originally Posted by audreyh1 Same with Christmas I suppose. Should just be 4 trading days week after Christmas this year. These definitions need work!

It’s defined as trading days. So I think it’s Dec 22, 27-30, then Jan 3-4.

[COcheesehead]

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheWizard I've done a fair amount of TLHing in the he past few weeks, but it's all been done with a pair of market orders, for example selling VGT and then buying a similar amount of QQQ within ten minutes of each other...

I tax loss harvested and gain harvested throughout the year removing all my tax liability from my taxable account and then put almost all of the money into 5%-6%+ bonds.

[Chuckanut]

The Santa rally is somewhat assured. I know that because I just sold a small amount I had invested in an emerging market index fund. It had under-performed for years. My gains were very small after years (only a few hundred dollars) so it won't mess up any tax planning.

At least that sector should skyrocket over the next few weeks.

[audreyh1]

Quote:

Originally Posted by COcheesehead It’s defined as trading days. So I think it’s Dec 22, 27-30, then Jan 3-4.

Yes, but Dec 23 (a trading day) is BEFORE Christmas, not after.

The rule probably should simply include the last 5 trading days of the year and not specify anything about being after Christmas.

[NW-Bound]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Car-Guy I like my definition the best! "IMO, I guess I'd call it a SC rally if I made a lot of money in the market anytime in late Dec. "

I like to see my stash going up, any time of year, any name people call it.

"Money, money, money... Always sunny... In the rich men's world..." --- ABBA

[COcheesehead]

Quote:

Originally Posted by audreyh1 Yes, but Dec 23 (a trading day) is BEFORE Christmas, not after. The rule probably should simply include the last 5 trading days of the year and not specify anything about being after Christmas.

It’s the last 5 trading days of the current year and the first 2 of the new year.

[jldavid47]

Quote:

Originally Posted by NW-Bound

Hey, given how much my heating bill has gone up a bag of coal sound pretty good. [emoji16]

[Koolau]

Quote:

Originally Posted by NW-Bound

I've been looking for a cartoon I saw years ago. Wizard of ID. The kingdom is having a fuel shortage. So the kind hangs a HUGE stocking by the fireplace and yells out the window "Santa is a fink! Santa is a fink!"

Yeah, I know, it loses something without the cartoon - but I did look.

[Graybeard]

I want to move my 401k to a Fidelity IRA and then to my existing Vanguard IRA. I have a $50k S&P 500 investment that is down about $2k+. I keep hoping I can get it to break even but I am running out of time. I just know the day I say move that the S&P 500 will gain 4-5% over the next few days. Most of the 401k is in the Stable Value fund, I hope to get that moved tomorrow. I don't want anything in the 401k on Jan. 3 or it'll turn into an RMD to move it.

[audreyh1]

Quote:

Originally Posted by cyber888 Well, if the Dow or Nasdaq rebounds 300 points on Monday (Dec. 19), there's hope. Otherwise, Fed Powell has become the Grinch that destroyed Christmas 2022. Oh wait, it might be evil Krampus.

Quote:

Originally Posted by audreyh1 So if the Dow or Nasdaq rebounds 300 points on Monday, there is hope even if they give it right back on Tuesday?

Yeah, there is still two hours to go, but DOW -230 so far not looking so good for Santa!

[NW-Bound]

Early in the day before the market dropped, I managed to sell 6 OTM call contracts for a total of $717 in cash.

Then, the market collapsed so bad, there's nothing for me to sell except covered puts. And I don't want to do it, not having any feel for where the bottom is.

So, I am buying back the calls I sold last week, just to close them off the book. Paid as low as 1c/share, or $1 for a contract.