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38Chevy454 · 12-09-2022, 07:33 AM

One of the old Wall St sayings is for a Santa rally that boosts stocks at year end. Curious what you think may happen for 2022? Will Santa bring a year end rally? Or will he take a pass this year?

We have about 3 weeks left in 2022. So far December has not been much of a rally. I am personally hoping we get some year end boost, but more for the psychological feeling.

**Aerides** · 12-09-2022, 07:37 AM

This year I think it mostly depends on the Fed. I think the market has another hike baked in, but if that's less than expectations it would be good for a rally. If it meets/exceeds, I think it squashes any chance of that, perhaps the opposite.

Place your bets!

(or not, just sit and watch/ignore and do nothing either way, like me)

COcheesehead · 12-09-2022, 07:49 AM

I think there is a whole bunch of tax loss selling going on or about to happen. I also think a lot of money is leaving the market and going into bonds. All of that will force the market to some level that will appear to some to be a value and they will buy. So will the market go up to end the year? Possibly, but from what level.

njhowie · 12-09-2022, 08:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by COcheesehead

I think there is a whole bunch of tax loss selling going on or about to happen. I also think a lot of money is leaving the market and going into bonds. All of that will force the market to some level that will appear to some to be a value and they will buy. So will the market go up to end the year? Possibly, but from what level.

Agreed on all points.

Car-Guy · 12-09-2022, 08:49 AM

Unfortunately, I see a lot of coal in stockings this year.

Hope I'm wrong as usual on investing topics.

PatrickA5 · 12-09-2022, 09:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by COcheesehead

I think there is a whole bunch of tax loss selling going on or about to happen. I also think a lot of money is leaving the market and going into bonds. All of that will force the market to some level that will appear to some to be a value and they will buy. So will the market go up to end the year? Possibly, but from what level.

But, but the CNBC talking heads told me last week that tax loss selling was mostly done. I believe everything they tell me. Santa is a comin'.

COcheesehead · 12-09-2022, 09:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PatrickA5

But, but the CNBC talking heads told me last week that tax loss selling was mostly done. I believe everything they tell me. Santa is a comin'.

I haven’t watched CNBC is over 2.5 years - since I retired. Something tells me I haven’t missed much.

audreyh1 · 12-09-2022, 12:05 PM

Hard to believe that the tax loss selling hasn’t already happened as both bond and equity markets have rallied quite a bit from the early October lows, but there are still 3 weeks left.

Don’t know about Santa Rally this year. He doesn’t show up so much during bear market years, but you never know……..

38Chevy454 · 12-09-2022, 12:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by COcheesehead

I haven’t watched CNBC is over 2.5 years - since I retired. Something tells me I haven’t missed much.

38Chevy454 says "I haven’t watched CNBC ever. Something tells me I haven’t missed much."

frayne · 12-09-2022, 12:30 PM

Don't know and don't care.

NW-Bound · 12-09-2022, 03:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by audreyh1

Don’t know about Santa Rally this year. He doesn’t show up so much during bear market years, but you never know……..

Is Santa scared of a grizzly?

Maybe he will come with sacks of coal?

Eh, coal is in demand this winter in many places. You can burn it for heat.

Graybeard · 12-09-2022, 07:11 PM

Yes I think we will despite how much we have rallied off the mid October low. The 1st half of December isn't always that good, it's that last week and the first few days of the new year when the Santa Claus rally happens. This year has sucked so bad that it would be nice for it to happen.

COcheesehead · 12-09-2022, 07:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by frayne

Don't know and don't care.

Why post then?

audreyh1 · 12-09-2022, 07:31 PM

The Santa Claus Rally usually plays into my January withdrawal which is based on my Dec 31 portfolio value. But don’t know what to expect this year. The Thanksgiving Rally we had this year was really nice!

kgtest · 12-09-2022, 07:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by audreyh1

Hard to believe that the tax loss selling hasn’t already happened as both bond and equity markets have rallied quite a bit from the early October lows, but there are still 3 weeks left.

Don’t know about Santa Rally this year. He doesn’t show up so much during bear market years, but you never know……..

Yeah I played that recent rally and bought back in on the latest dip, and did a mega backdoor roth conversion (my first). I still have some dry powder if we pullback after the rate hike. Otherwise I will put it in after the new year.

UnrealizedPotential · 12-09-2022, 07:59 PM

I don't know. But as a measurement stick, by halfway through December, which we are rapidly approaching, if the bulls have not awakened yet, I think the Santa Claus rally unlikely.

COcheesehead · 12-09-2022, 08:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by UnrealizedPotential

I don't know. But as a measurement stick, by halfway through December, which we are rapidly approaching, if the bulls have not awakened yet, I think the Santa Claus rally unlikely.

The rally is usually defined as a rise in the last five days of the year and the first two days of the new year. So what happens before then doesn’t necessarily matter.

UnrealizedPotential · 12-09-2022, 08:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by COcheesehead

The rally is usually defined as a rise in the last five days of the year and the first two days of the new year. So what happens before then doesn’t necessarily matter.

Ok. I accept that, but we will see what happens this year. My gut feeling says we are still in a bear market. Does being in a bear market determine whether a Sant Claus rally will happen? I have no idea.